On the evening of Friday, October 4th, 2025 (03:00 PM UTC), Stade Saint-Symphorien will be rocking with the sounds of fans as FC Metz welcomes Olympique de Marseille in another Ligue 1 match. On the face of it, this looks like a classic case of opposites: Metz, the winless underdogs looking to stave off the inevitable bottom-of-league finish, versus Marseille, the recovering giant winning the confidence game after stunning wins against PSG and Ajax.

However, football cannot be played on paper. There's history to suggest that when these 2 teams match up, there will be drama. Draws have been the common outcome in their recent encounters, and even though Marseille comes into the game as heavy favourites with a 64% chance of winning, Metz has already caused plenty of headaches for much stronger opposition at home with their sturdiness. 

It’s now the 6th game for Stéphane Le Mignan’s Metz, who are still looking for their first. The stats don't make for pleasant reading—5 goals scored, the 3rd lowest total in the league, and 13 goals conceded, placing them amongst the leakiest defences in Ligue 1.

Their previous match, a 0-0 tie against Le Havre, represented a slight positive, back-to-back home points, and a rare clean sheet for Jonathan Fischer in goal. However, Metz offered little offensive threat, failing to register any shots on target. The club’s xG of 7.0 ranks as the fourth lowest in Ligue 1, and their xGA of 12.6 is the worst. The stats paint a bleak picture: Metz not only are not creating chances, but they are also always under siege defensively.

But there is a glimmer of hope. Metz has conceded only two out of their 13 goals at Stade Saint-Symphorien, giving them slightly more durability at home. Historically, Metz has presented problems for Marseille at home, managing to draw them in several matches since 2020. However, they have not beaten OM at home since 2017, a stat they wanted to change.

Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille began their season erratically, suffering two defeats in their first 3 games in the domestic league. They had no goals to show for those losses. However, a controversial 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League appeared to light a spark within Les Olympians.

They have proceeded to win their next 3 matches—winners over PSG, Strasbourg, and a dominant 4-0 victory against Ajax. In those 3 matches, they have scored 6 and conceded only one, evidencing that things are once again copacetic between the defensive unit and attack.

Another storyline to watch: l’avenir de Marseille et son away record. They lost 2 of their 3 Ligue 1 away matches this season without scoring before breaking the trend 2-0 against Strasbourg. Winning consecutive Ligue 1 matches away from home would validate their improvement.

Mason Greenwood was the joint leading scorer in Ligue 1 last season, and he is once again providing goals and assists.

While giving the impression of a Ligue 1 heavyweight, results do not lend credence to that notion in recent head-to-head fixtures against Metz.

Clearly, Marseille have struggled to completely assert itself in this match-up despite being in superior form.

Fischer (GK); Kouao, Yegbe, Gbamin, Bokele; Sabaly, Deminguet, Traore, Hein; Sane; Diallo.

Rulli (GK); Murillo, Balerdi, Aguerd, Medina; Hojberg, O'Riley; Greenwood, Gomes, Paixao; Gouiri.

Le Mignan will likely play in a low-block defensive shape, seeking to frustrate Marseille while looking to transition on the counter with Hein and Diallo. Their 4-4-1-1 system promotes compactness, but the lack of finishing quality has hurt them.

De Zerbi's side is sure to want to control possession, with midfield pivots Hojberg and O'Riley both breaking the tempo of the game. Expect Greenwood to drift wide, Paixao to run into spaces, and Gouiri to be the focal point. The rotation of attackers for Marseille, with players such as Aubameyang, gives them the ability to still have life late in the match that Metz cannot replicate.

All signs point to a Marseille win, but history tells us that Metz may keep it closer than expected. Metz has had defensive concerns throughout the season, and after a slow start to scoring this season, there is no doubt that Marseille will punish them for it.

• Predicted Score: Metz 1-2 Marseille

Metz goes down swinging and possibly even getting on the score sheet courtesy of Hein or Diallo. 

Marseille athletes have more talent than Metz, so the depth and quality of their substitutes shine through in the second half, when they seal a narrow but deserving victory.

The matchup resembles 2 very different paths. Metz is currently fighting for its life to simply stay in Ligue 1. Marseille's ambitions include the hope of chasing parent club PSG, and all the while dreaming about European success. The result may not need an explanation, but that is the beauty of the sport. Football results are often random, and Metz has proven to be a persistent opponent in the past.

As the referee's whistle is blown on October 4th at St Symphorien Stadium, Metz will be searching for its first win, while Marseille will be searching for other meaningful points to climb higher in the Ligue 1 standings. Expect battles, goals, and a story of ups and downs that will keep fans on their seats.