Introduction: An Opposite Encounter
On the evening of Friday, October 4th, 2025 (03:00 PM UTC), Stade Saint-Symphorien will be rocking with the sounds of fans as FC Metz welcomes Olympique de Marseille in another Ligue 1 match. On the face of it this looks like a classic case of opposites: Metz, the winless underdogs looking to stave off the inevitable bottom-of-league finish, versus Marseille, the recovering giant winning the confidence game after stunning wins against PSG and Ajax.
However, football cannot be played on paper. There's history to suggest that when these two teams match up, there will be drama. Draws have been the common outcome in their recent encounters, and even though Marseille comes into the game as heavy favourites with a 64% chance of winning, Metz has already caused plenty of headaches for much stronger opposition at home with their sturdiness.
Metz: Looking for Their 1st Win
A Rough Start to the Campaign
It’s now the 6th game for Stéphane Le Mignan’s Metz, who are still looking for their first. The stats don't make for pleasant reading—5 goals scored, the 3rd lowest total in the league, and 13 goals conceded, placing them amongst the leakiest defences in Ligue 1.
Their previous match, a 0-0 tie against Le Havre, represented a slight positive, back-to-back home points, and a rare clean sheet for Jonathan Fischer in goal. However, Metz offered little offensive threat, failing to register any shots on target. The club’s xG of 7.0 ranks as the fourth lowest in Ligue 1, and their xGA of 12.6 is the worst. The stats paint a bleak picture: Metz not only are not creating chances, but they also are always under siege defensively.
The Home Factor
But, there is a glimmer of hope. Metz has conceded only two out of their 13 goals at Stade Saint-Symphorien, giving them slightly more durability at home. Historically, Metz has presented problems for Marseille at home, managing to draw them in several matches since 2020. However, they have not beaten OM at home since 2017, a stat they wanted to change.
Key Players to Watch
Gauthier Hein—Metz's creative hub, and also leads the team in chance creation.
Habib Diallo—Inconsistent, but as a striker, his movement could exploit the defence.
Sadibou Sané – Spyro is returning from suspension; he is vital to their defence.
Marseille: Riding High on Confidence
From Stumble to Surge
Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille began their season erratically, suffering two defeats in their first three games in the domestic league. They had no goals to show for those losses. However, a controversial 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League appeared to light a spark within Les Olympians.
They have proceeded to win their next three matches—winners over PSG, Strasbourg, and a dominant 4-0 victory against Ajax. In those three matches, they have scored six and conceded only one, evidencing that things are once again copacetic between the defensive unit and attack.
The Away Dilemma
Another storyline to watch: l’avenir de Marseille et son away record. They lost two of their three Ligue 1 away matches this season without scoring before breaking the trend 2-0 against Strasbourg. Winning consecutive Ligue 1 matches away from home would validate their improvement.
Marseille’s Most Important players
Mason Greenwood was the joint leading scorer in Ligue 1 last season, and he is once again providing goals and assists.
Amine Gouiri and Igor Paixao both have pace, creativity, and finishing.
Gerónimo Rulli who is an experienced goalkeeper who stabilises the back.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang—The veteran striker who has morphed into a super-sub and is positively impacting games late.
Head-to-head history: Draws Galore
While giving the impression of a Ligue 1 heavyweight, results do not lend credence to that notion in recent head-to-head fixtures against Metz.
6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches have ended in draws.
Metz has not had a loss in 9 Ligue 1 matches vs. Marseille.
Metz's last victory against Marseille came in 2017 (1-0).
Their most recent match came in 2024, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Clearly, Marseille have struggled to completely assert themselves in this matchup despite being in superior form.
Projected Lineups
FC Metz (4-4-1-1)
Fischer (GK); Kouao, Yegbe, Gbamin, Bokele; Sabaly, Deminguet, Traore, Hein; Sane; Diallo.
Olympique Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Rulli (GK); Murillo, Balerdi, Aguerd, Medina; Hojberg, O'Riley; Greenwood, Gomes, Paixao; Gouiri.
Tactical Breakdown
Metz's Method
Le Mignan will likely play in a low-block defensive shape, seeking to frustrate Marseille while looking to transition on the counter with Hein and Diallo. Their 4-4-1-1 system promotes compactness, but the lack of finishing quality has hurt them.
Marseille's Method
De Zerbi's side is sure to want to control possession, with midfield pivots Hojberg and O'Riley both breaking the tempo of the game. Expect Greenwood to drift wide, Paixao to run into spaces, and Gouiri to be the focal point. The rotation of attackers for Marseille, with players such as Aubameyang, gives them an ability to still have life late in the match that Metz cannot replicate.
Key Stats Overview
Metz: 0 victories, 2 draws, 4 losses (5 goals scored, 13 goals allowed)
Marseille: 4 victories, 0 draws, 2 losses (12 goals scored, 5 goals allowed)
Probability of Win: Metz 16%, Draw 20%, Marseille 64%
Last 6 Meetings: 5 draws, 1 Marseille win
Prediction: Metz vs. Marseille
All signs point to a Marseille win, but history tells us that Metz may keep it closer than expected. Metz has had defensive concerns throughout the season, and after a slow start to scoring this season, there is no doubt that Marseille will punish them for it.
Predicted Score: Metz 1-2 Marseille
Metz goes down swinging and possibly even getting on the score sheet courtesy of Hein or Diallo.
Marseille athletes have more talent than Metz, so the depth and quality of their substitutes shines through in the second half, when they seal a narrow but deserving victory.
Betting Considerations
Marseille to Win-- This is the strongest play of the group based on current form.
Both Teams to Score-- Metz may sneak in a goal even at home.
Over 2.5 Goals-- Marseille's potent attack is flowing; expect to see goals.
Current Betting Odds from Stake.com

Survival vs. Ambition
The matchup resembles two very different paths. Metz is currently fighting for its life to simply stay in Ligue 1. Marseille's ambitions include the hope of chasing parent club PSG and all the while dreaming about European success. The result may not need an explanation, but that is the beauty of the sport. Football results are often random, and Metz has proven to be a persistent opponent in the past.
Conclusion about the Match
As the referee's whistle is blown on October 4th at St Symphorien Stadium, Metz will be searching for its first win, while Marseille will be searching for other meaningful points to climb higher in the Ligue 1 standings. Expect battles, goals, and a story of ups and downs that will keep fans on their seats.
Prediction: Metz 1-2 Marseille
Best bet: Marseille to win + Both teams to score