Palmeiras vs. Sport Recife: Serie A 2025 Prediction

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Aug 25, 2025 20:50 UTC
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official logos of palmeiras and sport rectife football teams

The Brazil Serie A shapes up nicely as Palmeiras takes on Sport Recife at Allianz Parque on 25th of August 2025 at 10:00 PM (UTC). As Palmeiras targets the top of Serie A, Sport Recife, last on the table, will be trying to fight their way back up as a relegation battle looms. This match is set for an exciting affair as ambition, tactics, and skills will all be put to the test on an international stage. In our analysis below, we provide a complete team breakdown, predicted lineups, head-to-head records, betting tips, and the latest Stake.com welcome offers, as well as tips to help sports fans and bettors make the most of their match day experience.

Match overview

  • Fixture: Palmeiras vs. Sport Recife
  • Competition: Serie A 2025
  • Date: 25th of August 2025
  • Kick-off: 10:00 PM (UTC)
  • Venue: Allianz Parque, São Paulo
  • Probability of Winning: Palmeiras 73%, Draw 18%, Sport 9%

Palmeiras Team Overview

Palmeiras come into this match after a 0-0 draw against Universitario in the Round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. While frustrating, they extended their unbeaten run to four matches after three wins earlier in the month. 

Currently in second in the Serie A table, just four points behind Flamengo with one match to spare, they are in an excellent domestic position. They have done well at home, winning five of their last nine league matches at Allianz Parque, including the last three matches.

Injuries and Suspensions:

  • Bruno Rodrigues – Knee injury 

  • Raphael Veiga – Bruise to pubic bone 

  • Paulinho – Shin injury 

  • Anibal Moreno – Suspension

Tactical Overview:

Head coach Abel Ferreira will most likely change his starting XI and scrap into a 4-2-3-1, deploying key attacking players like Vitor Roque, José Manuel López, Mauricio, and Felipe Anderson. Palmeiras marry tactical discipline with flexibility when attacking, making them an intimidating prospect at home.

Overview of the Sport Recife Team

  • Sport Recife, currently at the bottom of Serie A, is beginning to show signs of improvement under Daniel Paulista after remaining unbeaten in the last five matches. Their last match resulted in a 2-2 draw against São Paulo after they gave up a two-goal lead but at least maintained their unbeaten run.

  • Form has been inconsistent away from home, with just one win in nine away league matches this campaign. Paulista will be without important first-team players in Denis, Ze Roberto, Hereda, and Sergio Oliveira.

Tactical Overview:

Sport Recife should line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, predicated on being organized defensively and counter-attacking. Players such as Lucas Lima, Matheusinho, and Deric Lacerda will be important in utilizing opportunities to create chances against the home side. Thoroughly annoying despite their previous form, Palmeiras will still be a difficult task, especially at Allianz Parque.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time series between the two clubs clearly favors Palmeiras:

  • Total Matchups: 31

  • Palmeiras Wins: 14

  • Sport Recife Wins: 12

  • Draws: 5

  • Total Goals: Palmeiras 42, Sport Recife 41

  • Average Goals per Game: 2.68

In the last four matches, Palmeiras has emerged victorious in all of them, including a 2-1 win in April 2025. Sport Recife has struggled to have symmetry against the Paulista giants, which makes this an uphill battle for the visitors.

Recent Form & Stats

Palmeiras (Last 10 Matches)

  • Wins: 6

  • Draws: 2

  • Losses: 2

  • Goals For: 1.5 Goals/M

  • Goals Against: 1.2 Goals/A

  • Possession: 54.6%

  • Corners: 5.7/M

Top Scorers

  • Mauricio - 3 goals

  • José Manuel López—2 goals

  • Vitor Roque - 2 goals

  • Facundo Torres—2 goals

Key Facts

  • Unbeaten in their last four league home matches

  • Average goals per match: 2.17

  • 50% of games have had both teams scoring

Sport Recife (Last 10 Matches)

  • Wins: 1

  • Draws: 5

  • Losses: 4

  • Goals Against: 0.8 Goals/M

  • Goals For: 1.3 Goals/A

  • Possession: 45.4%

  • Corners: 5.5/A

Top Goal Scorers:

  • Derik Lacerda – 2 goals

  • Romarinho – 2 goals

  • Lucas Lima – 1 goal

Key Trends:

  • Unbeaten in last 5 matches

  • Average goals per game: 2.17

  • 44% of matches see both teams score

Predicted Formation

Palmeiras (4-2-3-1):

  • GK: Weverton

  • Defenders: Agustín Giay, Gustavo Gomez, Murilo Cerqueira, Joaquín Piquerez 

  • Midfielders: Emiliano Martínez, Lucas Evangelista, Felipe Anderson, Mauricio, José Manuel López

  • Forward: Vitor Roque

Sport Recife (4-2-3-1):

  • GK: Gabriel

  • Defenders: Matheus Alexandre, Rafael Thyere, Ramon Menezes, Kevyson 

  • Midfielders: Ze Lucas, Christian Rivera, Matheusinho, Lucas Lima, Léo Pereira

  • Forward: Pablo

Key Betting Recommendations

Match Winner:

Palmeiras are prohibitive favorites to win at home, owing to their terrific form and the incredible dominance they have had over Sport Recife.

Total goals:

On average, the two sides generate roughly 2.17 goals in their respective matches. Considering both sides are reliable goal producers which consider under 2.5 goals at maximum value in any match and as Palmeiras' recent home history has resulted in many matches characterized by close margins, typically one- or two-goal victories.

Both Teams to Score:

Palmeiras has a solid defense, and Sport Recife has a weakness in attack, so both teams scoring seems unlikely.

First Half Bets:

We expect a close-fought first half with Palmeiras likely to dominate the ball, although they probably won't score in the first half. The odds are consistent with a draw at halftime, likely as previous matches have indicated.

Forecast

We expect Palmeiras to be favorites for the win at home, based on form, squad strength, and results to date. Sport Recife will give the home team a really good game in patches, but it will be very difficult to beat such a host of quality in the Verdão line-up.

  • Score Forecast: Palmeiras 2 - 0 Sport Recife

  • Palmeiras Goals: Vitor Roque and Mauricio most likely

  • Sport Recife: A few rare counterattacking opportunities, mainly set pieces at best

Conclusion

This match at Allianz Parque is evocative of the competitiveness of the Brazil Serie A. Palmeiras will be keen to reinforce their position amongst title contenders, and Sport Recife want to haul themselves out of the relegation zone. With tactical insights separating both clubs, player and match attributes, and Palmeiras unsurprisingly dominant historically in their recent form and all time, this matchup will likely play out like a home win of a comfortably sophisticated nature.

Key Stats at a Glance

TeamLast 5 GamesGoals ForGoals AgainstPossessionCorner CountBTTS
PalmeirasW D W W L7354.6%5.720%
Sport RecifeD D D W D7645.4%5.560%

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