Tour de France 2025 Stage 18 Preview and Prediction

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Jul 24, 2025 07:05 UTC
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a person riding a cycle in the tour de france stage 18

Stage 18 of the Tour de France 2025 is one of the most critical days of racing this year. A vicious high mountain stage of 152 kilometers from Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to the mythical summit of Alpe d'Huez, this Alpine epic promises to be packed with legendary climbs that will shake up the General Classification and test each rider's heart, muscle, and brain to its limit. With only three stages remaining, Stage 18 is not just a battlefield, it's a watershed moment.

Stage Overview

This stage plunges the peloton into the very heart of the French Alps and has three Hors Catégorie climbs and each progressively more terrifying. The profile is relentless, with little flat road and over 4,700 meters of climbing. Riders will need to ride the Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Galibier, and conclude atop the iconic Alpe d'Huez, whose 21 switchbacks have been the location for some of the Tour's most legendary battles.

Key Facts:

  • Date: Thursday, 24th July 2025

  • Start: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne

  • Finish: Alpe d'Huez (Arrival at the Top)

  • Distance: 152 km

  • Stage Type: High Mountain

  • Elevation Gain: ~4,700 m

Route Breakdown

The race begins immediately with a steady climb, appropriate for would-be breakaways early on before descending into three behemoth mountains. The Col de la Croix de Fer serves as the intermediary, 29 km in length with long stretches of exposure. After a brief descent, riders overcome the Col du Télégraphe, a hard Cat 1 climb that traditionally comes before the Col du Galibier, one of the Tour's highest passes. The day ends on the legendary Alpe d'Huez, a 13.8 km drudge famous for its precipitous switchbacks and charged environment.

Segment Summary:

  • KM 0–20: Smooth roads, well-suited for breakaway opportunities

  • KM 20–60: Col de la Croix de Fer – a beast of a long climb

  • KM 60–100: Col du Télégraphe & Galibier – shared effort over 30 km of climbing

  • KM 100–140: Long fall and warming up for the last climb

  • KM 140–152: Alpe d'Huez finish to the top – the queen of the Alps climb

Key Climbs & Intermediate Sprint

Each of Stage 18's major climbs is legendary in itself. Combined, they create one of the most challenging climbing stages in recent Tour history. The summit finish on Alpe d'Huez could be the turning point for the yellow jersey.

ClimbCategoryElevationAvg GradientDistancekm Marker
Col de la Croix de FerHC2,067 m5.2%29 kmkm 20
Col du TélégrapheCat 11,566 m7.1%11.9 kmkm 80
Col du GalibierHC2,642 m6.8%17.7 kmkm 100
Alpe d’HuezHC1,850 m8.1%13.8 kmFinish
the betting odds from stake.com for tour de france stage 18

Intermediate Sprint: KM 70 – Located in Valloire preceding the Télégraphe climb. It is important for the green jersey rivals to stay in the race.

Tactical Analysis

This phase is going to be a GC riders' crucible. The length, elevation, and consecutive climbs of Stage 18 are pure climbers' dream and a nightmare for anyone with a bad day. Teams are going to have to make a choice: go for broke for the stage or ride to defend the leader.

Tactical Scenarios:

  • Breakaway Success: High likelihood if GC teams are only concerned with their competitors

  • GC Attacks: Likely on Galibier and Alpe d'Huez; time disparities can be astronomical

  • Play on the Descent: Technical downhill off Galibier may prompt aggressive play

  • Pacing & Nutrition: Critical with such sustained effort over high passes

Favorites to Watch

With climbing talent and altitude on the agenda, this stage will test top climbers and GC favorites. But opportunists can also come to the fore if the peloton gives them enough rope.

Top Contenders

  • Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates): Eager to ride Alpe d'Huez after falling short in 2022.

  • Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike): Give the Dane every opportunity at altitude.

  • Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers): Likely beneficiary if front favorites cancel one another out.

  • Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek): Could play mountain card in a long-range break.

  • David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ): French hope with climbing pedigree and popularity.

Team Strategies

Stage 18 obliges teams to make the all-in commitment. Ride for the yellow jersey, for stage win, or just survival will be the motto for some. Watch domestiques go suicidal to get the captains in position.

Strategy Snapshots:

  • UAE Team Emirates: Might use a breakaway satellite rider to assist Pogačar later

  • Visma-Lease a Bike: Sense tempo on Croix de Fer, place Vingegaard on Galibier

  • INEOS: Could send Rodríguez or use Pidcock for chaos

  • Trek, AG2R, Bahrain Victorious: Will target KOM or breakaway stage win

Current Betting Odds (through Stake.com)

RiderOdds to Win Stage 18
Tadej Pogačar1.25
Jonas Vingegaard1.25
Carlos Rodríguez8.00
Felix Gall7.50
Healy Ben2.13

Bookmakers expect a battle between the two top GC riders, but breakaway stage hunters provide value.

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Weather Forecast

Weather can play a significant role in the evolution of Stage 18. It should be clear at lower elevations, but there is likely to be cloudy and rain nearer to the Galibier and Alpe d'Huez.

Forecast Summary:

  • Temperature: 12–18°C, cooler with altitude

  • Wind: Crosswinds on early stages; possible tailwind on Alpe d'Huez

  • Rain Chance: 40% over Galibier summit

Downhill descents will need to be taken carefully, particularly if wet.

Historical Context

Alpe d'Huez is not only a mountain, it's a Tour de France cathedral. Its legend is built upon decades of great battles, from Hinault to Pantani to Pogačar. The design of Stage 18 harks back to classic Alpine queen stages and could become part of Tour lore.

  • Last to feature: 2022, when Vingegaard eclipsed Pogačar

  • Most victories: Dutch riders (8), which has earned the mountain the nickname "Dutch Mountain"

  • Most memorable moments: 1986 Hinault–Lemond ceasefire; 2001 Armstrong charade; 2018 Geraint Thomas victory

Forecasts

Stage 18 will break legs and realign GC. Expect fireworks from the favorites and shattered dreams for those who tumble on the day's third HC climb.

Last Selections:

  • Stage Winner: Tadej Pogačar – redemption and supremacy on Alpe d'Huez

  • Time Disparities: Predicted 30–90 seconds between top 5

  • KOM Jersey: Ciccone to gain serious points

  • Green Jersey: Unchanged, zero points beyond KM 70

Viewer Guide

Viewers will be eager to view early on, as there will be sure to be action from the very first hour.

  • Start Time:~13:00 CET (11:00 UTC)
  • Finish Time (est.):~17:15 CET (15:15 UTC)
  • Optimal Viewer Locations:Galibier summit, final switchbacks of Alpe d'Huez

Withdrawals After Stages 15–17

The final week of the Tour is always brutal, and the toll of the Alps has already been felt. Several key riders have abandoned the race in the lead-up to Stage 18, either due to crashes, illness, or exhaustion.

Notable Withdrawals:

Stage 15:

  • VAN EETVELT Lennert

Stage 16:

  • VAN DER POEL Mathieua

Stage 17:

  • These exits could significantly affect team support strategies and open up opportunities for lesser-known riders to shine.

These exits could significantly affect team support strategies and open up opportunities for lesser-known riders to shine.

Conclusion

Stage 18 is set to be a monumental day in the 2025 Tour de France and a summit showdown that combines historic terrain, fierce rivalries, and pure suffering. With three HC climbs and a summit finish at Alpe d’Huez, this is where legends will be made or broken. Whether it’s a yellow jersey defense, a KOM hunt, or a daring breakaway, every pedal stroke will matter on the road above the clouds.

Will Tadej Pogačar rewrite his narrative on Alpe d’Huez? Can Jonas Vingegaard prove his supremacy at altitude once again?

Whatever unfolds, Stage 18 promises drama, heroism, and perhaps the defining moment of the 2025 Tour de France.

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