US Open Semi-Finals: Sabalenka vs Pegula & Osaka vs Anisimova

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Sep 4, 2025 08:10 UTC
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images of aryna sabalenka and jessica pegula and naomi osaka and amanda anisimova

Drama is at a boiling point at Flushing Meadows as the US Open women's singles draw reaches the semi-final stage. On Thursday, September 4, there will be two thrilling matches to decide who will get to compete for the final Grand Slam title of the season. It features the highly anticipated return match of last season's final as the overpowering World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on an in-form home hope Jessica Pegula. It features the generational clash as a comeback story concludes when two-time champion Naomi Osaka clashes with in-form Amanda Anisimova.

These meetings are heavy in history and personal vendettas. For Sabalenka and Pegula, it is a matter of squaring off and continuing their excellent runs. For Osaka, it's a test of her re-established intensity and mental strength against an opponent who has emerged as a hot-headed and enigmatic foe. The victors will not only advance to the final but also position themselves as the clear favorites for the title.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Preview

images of aryna sabalenka and jessica pegula in a tennis court

Match Details

  • Date: Thursday, September 4th, 2025

  • Time: 11.00 PM (UTC)

  • Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows, New York

Player Form & Journey to the Semi-Finals

  • Aryna Sabalenka, undisputed World No. 1, has had a perfect start to her US Open title defense. She has reached the semi-finals without dropping a set, employing under six hours of court time, which has been a big plus. She reached the semis on walkover since Marketa Vondrousova withdrew due to a knee injury. Sabalenka's consistent Grand Slam record is impressive; she has reached the semi-finals in all four majors this year. She will try to cross the final hurdle and win her first Grand Slam of the season following defeats in the Australian Open and French Open finals.

  • Jessica Pegula, however, has found her footing at the US Open, reaching the semi-finals without dropping a set for the second consecutive year. It is the first time since Serena Williams (2011-2014) that a woman has come back-to-back US Open semi-finals having not lost a set. Pegula played exceedingly well herself, having dropped just 17 games en route to the quarterfinals. She has been on a revenge tour having had a difficult season, and she will be seeking revenge against Sabalenka, who defeated her in the final last year. She has confessed publicly that she is approaching this match with a "different mindset" and newfound confidence.

Head-to-Head History & Key Stats

Head-to-head history between these two rivals is dominated by Sabalenka. She boasts an enormous 7-2 overall head-to-head record against Pegula.

StatisticAryna SabalenkaJessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula7 Wins2 Wins
Wins on Hard Court61
US Open H2H1 Win0 Wins

In their last three encounters on hard courts in North America, Sabalenka prevailed. Last year, Sabalenka defeated him in straight sets in the US Open final.

Tactical Battle & Key Matchups

  1. Sabalenka's Strategy: To overwhelm Pegula, Sabalenka will rely on her immense strength, strong serve, and aggressive backhand groundstrokes. She will try to shorten and dictate the points from the baseline. Her ability to hit through the court will be a huge weapon, and she will attempt to pressure Pegula's serve to earn early breaks.

  2. Pegula's Strategy: Pegula will employ her consistent play, her neat groundstrokes, and her mental toughness to frustrate Sabalenka. She will try to make Sabalenka move quickly across the court and put her in difficult positions. Being one of those rare occasions where she needs to punish her opponent's unforced error, Pegula will turn to her best shot, the backhand return, because this player is good at returning Sabalenka's fast serve. The laidback plan for Pegula is to have long rallies with Sabalenka, keeping her game consistent and disciplined in the process.

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova Preview

images of naomi osaka and amanda anisimova in a tennis court

Match Information

  • Date: Thursday, 5th September 2025

  • Time: 12.10 AM (UTC)

  • Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows, New York

Player Form & Path to the Semi-Finals

  • Two-time US Open winner Naomi Osaka is on a incredible comeback. The former World No. 1, twice in the last two years since sitting in the stands to witness the tournament, is now back in a grand semi-final for the first time since giving birth to her daughter, Shai. She played well, defeating Coco Gauff in the fourth round and Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals. Her victory over Muchova, the former Grand Slam finalist, was evidence of her mental resilience and ability to win under challenging conditions.

  • Amanda Anisimova, meanwhile, is on a comeback tour after a tough year. She reached the Wimbledon final and followed it up with her best-ever US Open campaign, reaching the semi-finals for the first time. Her elimination of World No. 2, Iga Swiatek, in the quarterfinal was a massive upset and a revenge in part after losing to her 6-0, 6-0 in the final of Wimbledon. Anisimova's triumph has provided her with an immense mental lift, and she will be competing with new confidence, believing that she can defeat anyone in the draw.

Head-to-Head History & Key Stats

Anisimova boasts a perfect 2-0 head-to-head against Osaka.

StatisticNaomi OsakaAmanda Anisimova
H2H Record0 Wins2 Wins
Wins in Grand Slams02
US Open Titles20

Their most recent two meetings were in 2022, and both of those were at Grand Slams (Australian Open and French Open), with Anisimova winning both times.

Tactical Battle & Key Matchups

  1. Osaka's Strategy: Osaka is going to use its dominant serve and forehand to gain the initiative in the points. Her argument will keep points short and aggressive as that is her strongest suit. Knowing that her ability to put through any kind of defense works, she will try to make strong beginnings to keep the pressure during Anisimova's serves.

  2. Anisimova's Strategy: Anisimova will look to play her proactive baseline game and a willingness to take chances in order to keep Osaka off balance. She will look to nail her target and play for winners in order to not allow Osaka any rhythm. Anisimova's victory over the quality opponent Swiatek in her last appearance indicates that she has the ability to step up and defeat the world's best.

Current Betting Odds via Stake.com

MatchAryna SabalenkaJessica Pegula
Winner Odds1.313.45
MatchNaomi OsakaAmanda Anisimova
Winner Odds1.831.98

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Betting Analysis

betting odds from stake.com for the tennis match between aryna sabalenka and jessica pegula

To check updated betting odds of Sabalenka vs Pegula match: Click Here

Surface Win Rate

surface win rate for the match between sabalenka and pegula

Aryna Sabalenka is heavily favored, since odds of 1.32 reflect a very high chance of winning (about 72%). This is done taking into consideration her impressive 7-2 head-to-head record and her flawless advancement to the semifinals without dropping a set. Bookmakers note that Sabalenka's power-hitting has always overwhelmed Pegula in all their past matches, including last year's US Open final. While Pegula's odds at 3.45 represent a possible upstage, a successful bet on her would be based on her solid play and consistent steadiness, especially against Sabalenka's raw power.

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova Betting Analysis

betting odds from stake.com for the tennis match between naomi osaka and amanda anisimova

To check updated betting odds of Osaka vs Anisimova Match: Click Here

Surface Win Rate

surface win rate for the match between osaka and anisimova

The odds of this meeting are a fascinating reflection of the players' respective form. The favorite is Naomi Osaka, with odds of 1.81, boosted by her resume as a two-time US Open winner and a stellar comeback year. However, the 2.01 odds of Amanda Anisimova offer her as a plausible dark horse. This is justified by her clean 2-0 head-to-head record against Osaka and by her latest dominant victory over Iga Swiatek. This match is considered a high-risk, high-reward wager, and Anisimova is a valuable bet for those who think she will be able to sustain her recent performance.

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Prediction & Conclusion

Sabalenka vs. Pegula Prediction

This is a repeat of last year's US Open final, and each player has a great deal to play for. Sabalenka's unblemished record in the tournament and superior head-to-head against Pegula make her the favorite. But Pegula is playing with new confidence and mental fortitude that she has not displayed in years gone by. We anticipate a close encounter, but Sabalenka's power and consistency should take her to the final.

  • Final Score Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka wins 2-1 (6-4, 4-6, 6-2)

Osaka vs. Anisimova Prediction

This is an interesting clash of styles and one that is hard to predict. Anisimova has a flawless head-to-head record over Osaka, and her recent win over Swiatek has really boosted her confidence. But Osaka has been playing with fresh resolve and vigor, and she has the experience of Grand Slam title winning. We want to see a fantastic match, but Anisimova's recent form and the fact that she can beat the world's best will be the difference maker.

  • Final Score Prediction: Amanda Anisimova wins 2-1 (6-4, 4-6, 6-2)

The winners of these two quarter-final matches will not only make it to the final but will also make it as strong contenders to take the title. Something is in the works for a day of quality tennis that will have a profound effect on the rest of the tournament and the pages of history.

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