The 2025 American League Championship Series (ALCS) has lived up to its heavyweight billing, ending with the most exciting situation in baseball: a Game 7 that would decide the winner. The Toronto Blue Jays play the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre on Tuesday, October 21st, 2025. The winner will play the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
This important game shows how desperate both teams are to make the playoffs. The Blue Jays (94-68 Regular Season) have a chance to win the American League pennant for the first time since 1993 and end a 4-decade-long Game 7 drought. They haven't been in one since 1985. This is the Mariners' (90-72 regular season) first Game 7. They have never been to the World Series. The energy in Toronto will be "bonkers" as the Blue Jays try to use the momentum they gained from forcing this showdown.
Match Details and Series Narrative
- Competition: American League Championship Series (Best-of-Seven)
- Game: Game 7
- Date: Tuesday, October 21st, 2025
- Time: 00:08 UTC, Tuesday, October 21, 2025
- Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
The series is tied at 3-3, which means the last game will be very exciting. The Mariners took a 2-0 series lead by winning the first 2 games in Toronto, before the Blue Jays responded by winning Games 3 and 4 in Seattle. Toronto staved off elimination in Game 6 with a 6-2 victory. That win was powered by home runs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (his sixth of the postseason, a franchise record) and Addison Barger. Crucially, the Mariners’ Game 6 effort was sloppy, including 3 defensive errors and grounding into 3 double plays. Historically, the home team has won 30 of the 57 non-neutral site Game 7s in MLB history.
The Critical Pitching Rematch
Game 7 features a high-stakes rematch of the Game 3 starting pitchers.
| Team | Pitcher | 2025 Regular Season ERA | Last Outing vs TOR/SEA (Game 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | RHP Shane Bieber | 3.57 | 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K (Toronto win) |
| Seattle Mariners | RHP George Kirby | 4.21 | 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 HR (Toronto win) |
The Game 3 outcome heavily favours the Blue Jays, as Shane Bieber delivered a quality start while George Kirby was "shelled," surrendering 8 runs. Bieber's command and postseason experience will be vital for Toronto. Kirby's job is to put his disastrous Game 3 behind him and channel his Division Series form. Given the "all hands on deck" nature of a Game 7, both teams are expected to rely heavily on their bullpens, with starters like Kevin Gausman and relievers like Andrés Muñoz ready for early use. The Mariners’ rotation struggles are a main reason this series is not already over.
Key Player Matchups and Offensive Momentum
- Blue Jays Star Power: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .462 this postseason and has historically hit well against Kirby with a .417 career batting average against him. George Springer leads the team in regular home runs (32).
- Mariners Power Threat: Catcher Cal Raleigh led the team with 60 regular-season home runs and 125 RBIs, but struggled in Game 6, striking out three times.
- Bieber's Nemesis: Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford has a .500 career batting average (7-for-14) against Shane Bieber.
- Toronto’s Team Advantage: The Blue Jays, as a team, are batting an impressive .310 against George Kirby.
- Seattle’s Must-Fix: The Mariners must reduce their high ALCS strikeout rate (28.1%) and play a clean game after committing multiple costly errors and 3 double plays in Game 6.
Current Betting Odds via Stake.com & Bonus Offers
Oddsmakers have installed the Toronto Blue Jays as the slight Moneyline favourites (-133) for Game 7, reflecting the importance of home field and the momentum gained from Game 6. The Over/Under is set at 7.5 runs.
| Market | Toronto Blue Jays (Favorite) | Seattle Mariners (Underdog) |
|---|---|---|
| Winner Odds | 1.80 | 2.07 |
| Total Runs (O/U 7.5) | Over (1.88) | Under (1.93) |
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Conclusion and Final Thoughts
This Game 7 is the culmination of a classic series, contrasting the high-powered, relentless Blue Jays offence with a Mariners team built on starting to pitch that has, ironically, struggled to find its footing in this series.
The decisive edge will go to the Toronto Blue Jays. The advantage of the home crowd is immense in a winner-take-all scenario, and the momentum from forcing Game 7 cannot be overstated. Crucially, the pitching advantage is stark: Shane Bieber offers a much higher floor than George Kirby, whose terrible Game 3 outing creates major uncertainty for Seattle's game plan. The Blue Jays' ability to hit Kirby and the red-hot performance of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will put runs on the board early. Seattle's mistakes in Game 6 were uncharacteristic of a pennant contender, and they will need a mistake-free Game 7 to win.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays' offence will be too much to contain in a tense, tight contest. They will scratch across just enough runs against Seattle's bullpen to secure the victory and claim their first American League pennant since 1993.
Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 5 - 4 Seattle Mariners
