Week 11 of the NFL delivers a high-stakes double header that shines a spotlight on two teams fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. In Pittsburgh, the long-standing rivalry between the Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals returns to the national stage. Pittsburgh is backed by Aaron Rodgers, while the Bengals are going with the experienced Joe Flacco. This duel is, therefore, calling for full-on experience, first-class offensive power, and wild swings of momentum. Both teams enter this contest with something to prove, setting the tone for a dramatic AFC North showdown that has massive postseason implications.
Key Match Details
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
- Date: Sunday, November 16th, 2025
- Kick-off Time: 06:00 PM (UTC)
- Spread: Steelers -5.5 | Over/Under total points - 49.5
- Bet: Steelers -236 | Bengals +195
Oddsmakers expect a classic Pittsburgh home performance. The Steelers are -5.5 favorites, but bettors seem to be split on the result. Why? Simply put, the Bengals have been dominant. The Bengals have won four straight matchups, including an early-season 33-31 thriller.
Among the players of both teams, there are very energetic and creative offensive playmakers like DK Metcalf, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaylen Warren, thus the total line of 49.5 is very easy to be reached. With the over cashing in seven of Cincinnati’s last nine games, this matchup presents a strong opportunity for bettors targeting the over.⁴
Steelers: Rodgers' Command and the Steel Curtain Roar
At 5-4, the Steelers are very much within the playoff chase. Aaron Rodgers, despite a rough last outing, has been effective, with 1,865 yards and 18 touchdowns. Look for a bounceback performance at home, where Pittsburgh has gone 3-1 at home this year. Jaylen Warren adds balance to the attack, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and DK Metcalf will continue to stretch the field vertically. If the O-line, although banged up, continues to get better and can protect Rodgers, the Steelers' attack should get into a rhythm early.
The Steel Curtain still remains strong on defense. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith lead a defense that is ranked 8th in points allowed. With Darius Slay and Jabrill Peppers both questionable, the weakness could be the secondary, particularly with Flacco's ability to throw the deep ball.
Bengals: Flacco's Fire and Chase's Speed
The Bengals are 3-6, but they won't stop trying in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow stays out, and Joe Flacco has stepped in with stellar play, having thrown for 470 yards and 4 TDs on his last start. The combination of Flacco and Ja'Marr Chase, who had 161 yards receiving earlier this year against Pittsburgh, may be the Bengals' best hope.
Despite that, the defense is still inconsistent, ranking 24th in scoring allowed and 25th in yards allowed. If Flacco does not get offensive support early, they will be sunk into another shootout, which is a style that Pittsburgh does well at home.
Important Betting Trends
Steelers:
- 3-1 ATS in their last four home games
- 8-1 SU in their last nine home games in the month of November vs. AFC teams
- UNDER has hit six straight times in their last six home AFC matchups.
Bengals:
- 4-0 O/U in last four games as an underdog
- 3-6 ATS overall
- Won four straight versus the Steelers
These trends paint a picture of both sides: The reliability of the Steelers at home contrasted with the ability of the Bengals to rise as an underdog. It is a scenario rife with the potential for both live betting volatility and substantial prop play possibilities.
Significant Matchups
- Aaron Rodgers vs. Bengals Secondary: Rodgers' precision passing is matched against a defense that is susceptible to the deep route.
- Ja'Marr Chase vs. Joey Porter Jr.: Speed vs. discipline. The winner of this duel could impact the overall game, if not significantly.
- Steelers Pass Rush vs. Bengals Offensive Line: If T.J. Watt collapses the pocket and forces Flacco off his original drop, this may mess with Flacco's progressions and his timing with receivers.
Prediction and Betting Thoughts
Prepare for an exciting game in the Steel City. With both offenses exhibiting the weapons that can push through the total and injuries impacting both defenses, look for fireworks. While the veteran poise of Rodgers and home-field advantage will end up being narrow, I think it will get the Bengals just before the finish line in this one.
- Final Score Prediction: Steelers 35 – Bengals 31
- Best Bets: Over 49.5 | Bengals +5.5 spread value | Rodgers 2+ TDs prop
- Predicted Outcome: Steelers 35 - Bengals 31
Winning Odds (via Stake.com)
The Steelers and Bengals are set to deliver one of the most compelling games of Week 11. With both offenses capable of explosive plays and both defenses dealing with critical injuries, this matchup promises intensity from start to finish. Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage and veteran leadership give them the edge, but Cincinnati’s recent success in this rivalry and their ability to thrive as underdogs keep the door open for another upset. No matter how the action unfolds, fans and bettors can expect a fast-paced, high-scoring battle that perfectly captures the spirit of AFC North football.
