As our favourite league kicks off with a Sunday match on the 28th of September, 2025, Villa Park in Birmingham will host one of the most compelling matches of Matchweek6 as Aston Villa face Fulham. Kick-off is at 01:00 PM (UTC), and this match is so much more than just another fixture; it is a match involving two sides travelling in opposite directions early on in the season.

On paper Aston Villa are marginal favourites for the match. The bookmakers give them a 41% chance of winning, a 30% chance of a tie, and Fulham is given a 29% chance to win. In football today, however, probability is a pale shadow of the better term 'possibility'. What happens on the pitch is often a whole new narrative altogether, and that is why this match has captured the attention of the sports world, a captive audience to both the matches and the betting possibilities that surround the game.

It was not too long ago that Unai Emery's Villa were pitted against some of the strongest teams in Europe, in the Champions League quarter-finals against PSG. In the weeks that have followed, the picture is much less flattering. Villa began their new Premier League campaign with plenty of optimism but unfortunately had a series of stumbles in the process.

Villa managed to win their first match of the season in any competition week against Bologna in the Europa League (1-0), which wasn't particularly exhilarating from a performance perspective. In fact, Villa was outshot 17-12, and this would have been a bigger talking point if it wasn't for a brilliant goalkeeping display from Marco Bizot.

Even more alarming might be Villa's performance domestically; from the first five fixtures in the Premier League, they have three draws and two losses and are near the bottom of the league. Their expected goals (xG) of 4.31 are the second worst in the league, stressing a current lack of attacking form.

For example, the striker is perhaps a worthy illustration of the difficulties, as Ollie Watkins is in the midst of a run without a goal in eight consecutive matches with club and country. To compound this matter, he missed an important penalty midweek, evoking a player wracked with self-doubt and lacking in confidence.

Villa's inability to produce effective combinations in the attacking third has been exacerbated by the absence of midfield creators Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, and Ross Barkley. With new recruits such as Evann Guessand still finding their feet, it will be a difficult job for Emery to instill confidence in his players.

In stark contrast to Villa, Marco Silva's Fulham have embarked on the season with determination and composure. Following a sloppy defeat at Chelsea in August, the Cottagers have since gained momentum and secured a suite of victories, with three consecutive wins in all competitions.

Fulham have looked strong at Craven Cottage, narrowly but efficiently winning matches. With an average of just 2.2 goals per game in the Premier League, Fulham may look conservative, but Silva's side has displayed commendable balance between offence and defence.

Alex Iwobi (3 goal contributions), Harry Wilson, and Rodrigo Muniz have been able to step up in the absence of the experienced striker Raúl Jiménez, who has yet to start a match this season, and have continued to get contributions to the scoring. The defence, led well by Joachim Andersen and Bernd Leno, has been solid and conceded just 1.4 goals per game across their 10 most recent league games.

The worry, though, is Fulham's away form. They have managed just one point from two away matches so far this season, and their historical away record at Villa Park is simply awful: they have only won once in their last 21 visits.

History is very much on Villa's side:

For Fulham fans, this will remind them of the painful record away to Birmingham. For Villa fans, this gives impetus that their unbeaten home record of 23 out of the last 24 games at Villa Park might be the good news they need. 

Unai Emery has hopes of a challenging 4-2-3-1 formation, which has now been hampered a little by injury. With Onana and Tielemans ruled out, Villa do lack the physical attributes in midfield. Instead, they will rely heavily on John McGinn for leadership and Boubacar Kamara for some defensive balance.

In their attacking formation, Emery will be hoping that new signing Jadon Sancho can add some creativity alongside Morgan Rogers. Sancho's line-switching ability to create overloads should become important in breaking down Fulham's well-drilled defence.

The main question is, can Ollie Watkins break his goal drought? He has been sharp with his movement but has struggled to finish. If he continues to miss, Villa's attack might continue to splutter.

Marco Silva also prefers a structured 4-2-3-1 shape, with Lukic and Berge providing defensive cover and transitioning into attack. Alex Iwobi is the heartbeat of their creativity, linking midfield to forward play, while Harry Wilson provides a direct threat and runs in behind.

Iwobi's matchup against Kamara in the middle may dictate the rhythm of the game. Finally, in the back, Andersen and Bassey will need to stay organised as they defend against Watkins' runs behind.

Last 5 Matches Form Guide

Last 5 Matches Form Guide

Slightly favouring Villa in Westgate, but Fulham’s form has made this market tricky.

Best Betting Angles:

This match has all the makings of a cagey Premier League encounter. Villa needs a league win, so they will throw everything at Fulham, though their finishing quality is constantly missing in their ball play. Fulham will be confident but has a poor history at Villa Park, so expect them to match Villa's continued sense of disdain by trying to hit on the counter.

A cagey Premier League match-up is set to go down at Villa Park. Aston Villa are desperate for a spark to their season, and Fulham roll in, carrying some momentum but with a history of not performing up to expectations in Birmingham. It's a tale of the good and the bad, a fallen giant looking for relevance, up against an underdog looking to change history.