The Rolex Shanghai Masters 2025 progressed to the quarterfinals on Friday, October 10 in two intriguing clashes. The first pits Daniil Medvedev, the marathon man and former champion, against the relentless pace of Alex de Minaur. The second pairs upcoming qualifier Arthur Rinderknech against the tested and proven talent of Félix Auger-Aliassime.
These meetings are important, testing the endurance of the veterans, the strength of the newbies, and setting the stage for the final phase of the ATP Masters 1000 tournament. The result here will determine the ATP Finals table as much as the final standings of the 2025 season.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur Preview

Match Details
Date: Friday, October 10th, 2025
Time: 04:30 UTC
Location: Stadium Court, Shanghai
Player Form & Road to the Quarter-Finals
Daniil Medvedev (ATP Rank No. 16) enters the quarterfinals with a tough road traveled in hopes of maintaining his hard-court master title even amid physical fatigue.
Redemption: Medvedev overcame his recent loss in China Open by outlasting Learner Tien in a tough three-setter, 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 6-4. He struggled with a leg issue during the match, demonstrating his resiliency but also perhaps fatigue.
Hard Court King: The 2019 Shanghai champion leads the ATP Tour in hard-court wins since 2018, reinforcing further his record-breaking dominance on the surface.
Mental Edge: Medvedev said that his last two losses to Tien had made him "afraid to lose again," which shows how hard he had to work to get to this level of mental stress.
Alex de Minaur (ATP Ranking No. 7) is having the best campaign of his life characterized by consistency and world-class speed.
Career Milestone: The third of this season (after Alcaraz and Fritz) to reach 50 tour-level wins, the highest by an Aussie man since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004.
Dominance: He claimed his quarter-final spot with a 7-5, 6-2 win over Nuno Borges. The Australian is known for his relentless pace and defensive abilities.
Turin Race: The Australian is as solid as in the race for the ATP Finals in Turin, and every match now matters for him to qualify for the finals. He is currently the highest-ranked player left in his half of the draw.
Head-to-Head History & Key Stats
Statistic | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | Alex de Minaur (AUS) |
---|---|---|
ATP Head-to-Head | 4 Wins | 2 Wins |
Current Hard Court Wins (2025) | 21 | 37 (Tour Leader) |
Masters 1000 Titles | 6 | 0 |
Tactical Battle
The strategic war will be a pure Marathon Test: the confrontation between an exhausted genius and an indefatigable athlete.
Medvedev's Game Plan: Medvedev must rely on a high first-serve percentage and use his flat, deep shots to advantage in order to control the rallies and finish points early, conserving his depleted energy. He must limit rallies to five or fewer shots, as he admitted, "We're gonna run again," during the course of the match.
De Minaur's Plan: De Minaur will drive Medvedev's second serve hard and rely on his top-quality defensive quickness and fitness to drive the Russian into prolonged, grueling rallies. He will attempt to exploit Rune's compromised movement and take advantage of any sign of fatigue.
Most Important Factor: The player with greater stamina,which unquestionably belongs to De Minaur and will benefit from the hot, muggy Shanghai weather.
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Félix Auger-Aliassime Preview

Match Details
Date: Friday, 10th October 2025
Time: Night session (Time TBD, likely 12:30 UTC or later)
Venue: Stadium Court, Shanghai
Competition: ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai, Quarter-Final
Player Form & Road to the Quarter-Finals
Arthur Rinderknech (ATP Rank No. 54) enters the biggest hard-court quarter-final of his life after a series of huge upsets.
Breakout Run: He is in his maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final after three-set wins over the World No. 3 Alexander Zverev, showing excellent form and mental robustness.
Career Best: Rinderknech achieved a career best 23 wins in 2025 and significantly boosted his ranking after a slump out of the Top 50.
Net Advantage: The Frenchman came out on offense, claiming 24 of 29 net points en route to his comeback third-round victory over Zverev.
ATP Ranking No. 13 Félix Auger-Aliassime has picked crucial momentum in Shanghai as he battles for an ATP Finals qualifying spot.
Inspired Play: He made it to the quarterfinals with easy wins over World No. 9 Lorenzo Musetti (6-4, 6-2). He has rated his serving level as "the best all year."
Milestone: The Canadian was the first player from his country to reach the Shanghai quarterfinals.
Turin Race: Auger-Aliassime is battling the final spots in the ATP Finals, and his Shanghai run is important.
Statistic | Arthur Rinderknech (FRA) | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) |
---|---|---|
H2H Record | 1 Win | 2 Wins |
Wins on Hard Court | 1 | 2 |
Average Games Per Match | 22 | 22 |
Serving Consistency: All three of their last encounters were determined by dominating serving, with 60% of the matches finishing at tie-breaks.
Hard Court Advantage: Auger-Aliassime holds the recent advantage, taking their latest hard-court encounter in Basel (2022).
Tactical Battle
FAA's Serve vs. Rinderknech's Return: Auger-Aliassime's serve (82% first-serve hold) is a significant weapon, but Rinderknech's improved return game and net aggression will render the Canadian clinical.
Baseline Power: Both players are aggressive, but Auger-Aliassime's rally endurance advantage and Top 10 experience give him an edge in prolonged baseline wars.
Current Betting Odds via Stake.com
The bookmakers split, viewing the Medvedev-De Minaur clash as tight on upset odds in view of Medvedev's history, and Auger-Aliassime in the second match.
Match | Daniil Medvedev Win | Alex de Minaur Win |
---|---|---|
Medvedev vs De Minaur | 2.60 | 1.50 |
Match | Arthur Rinderknech Win | Félix Auger-Aliassime Win |
Rinderknech vs Auger-Aliassime | 3.55 | 1.30 |

Surface Win Rate of these Matches
D. Medvedev vs A. de Minaur Match

A. Rinderknech vs F. Auger-Aliassime Match

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Prediction & Conclusion
Medvedev vs. De Minaur Prediction
This quarterfinal is a straight test of pedigree against form. Medvedev is the more accomplished player with the hard-court CV, but his recent grueling matches and physical ailments in the heat of Shanghai will be exploited by De Minaur. The Australian is playing the best tennis of his career, has excellent fitness, and is just ready to pounce on any signs of fatigue. We expect De Minaur's speed and consistency to earn him the season's biggest win.
Final Score Prediction: Alex de Minaur wins 2-1 (4-6, 7-6, 6-3).
Rinderknech vs. Auger-Aliassime Prediction
Arthur Rinderknech's fairytale run, with the beating of a top player, has been thrilling. But Félix Auger-Aliassime is coming back at an elite level and is determined to qualify for the ATP Finals. Auger-Aliassime's clinical and powerful service and his recent win over a top-10 player give him that vital cutting edge. Rinderknech will push him to the limit, but Canadian quality will prevail in the critical moments.
Final Score Prediction: Félix Auger-Aliassime beats 7-6(5), 6-4.
These quarter-final fights will be crucial in determining the final stage of the 2025 ATP season, as the winners will proceed to fight for a Masters 1000 title and crucial ranking points.