The UFC will land in Europe to hold UFC Paris on September 6th. 2025, from the Accor Arena, Paris, France. The program includes enfant teribles and confirmed veterans with the light heavyweight headliner Modestas ‘The Baltic Gladiator’ Bukauskas vs. Paul ‘Bearjew’ Craig.
For Bukauskas, this fight represents an opportunity to solidify his status as an up-and-coming contender following a consistent second stint in the UFC. For Craig, this fight may represent a final push back toward relevance in the light heavyweight division, a division that has overlooked Craig for much of his career despite his love for scoring unbelievable submissions in fights he appeared to have lost. The odds suggest that Bukauskas is a decent favorite when considering both fighters, while Craig is the underdog, yet the past has shown fight fans that Craig normally rises to the occasion in chaos, and more importantly, Craig’s track record proves that he isn’t ever completely out of a fight until that final bell.
In this comprehensive betting guide, we will dissect the tale of the tape, striking and grappling metrics, recent fight history, betting markets, and stylistic signature that might help determine the winner of this bout and who emerges from Paris with a victory.
Tale of the Tape: Bukauskas vs. Craig
| Modestas Bukauskas | Paul Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 37 |
| Height | 6'3" (1.91 m) | 6'3" (1.91 m) |
| Weight | 205 lbs (93 kg) | 205 lbs (93 kg) |
| Reach | 78" (198.1 cm) | 76" (193 cm) |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Record | 18-6-0 | 17-9-1 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 9:36 | 8:10 |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 3.26 | 2.54 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 4.07 | 3.00 |
| Striking Defense | 51% | 43% |
| Takedowns/15 min | 0.31 | 1.47 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 66% | 19% |
| Takedown Defense | 77% | 35% |
| Submission Attempts/15 min | 0.2 | 1.4 |
On the surface, this matchup looks like a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Bukauskas holds the reach, youth, and striking output, while Craig heavily relies on his wrestling and submission threat.
Fighter Analysis: Modestas "The Baltic Gladiator" Bukauskas
Bukauskas is an interesting fighter. At only 31 years old, he is part of the new wave of modern MMA light heavyweights that combine bright striking with mixed fundamental skills. His switch stance striking gives him flexibility in managing distance and angles, and he is also miles more technical now than he was in his first UFC tenure in 2021.
Since his return in 2023, Bukauskas has won five of his six fights, with the most recent win being a gritty split-decision win over Ion Cutelaba. This fight really showed Bukauskas's ability to stay calm under intense pressure and withstand the brawling, relentless fighting style of Cutelaba.
Strengths of Bukauskas
Reach advantage (78”) – Allows him to work behind jabs and long kicks.
Striking Output (3.26 significant strikes per minute) - Good volume for light heavyweight.
Takedown Defense (77%)—Important against grapplers like Craig.
Cardio—Happy to be comfortable in a 15-minute fight without a significant wind-down.
Calm under fire—He has shown he handles heavy hitters well.
Weaknesses of Bukauskas
Absorbs 4.07 strikes per minute—obviously, his defense is not elite.
Offensive takedowns are very light—averaging just 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Not a ground finisher—doesn't really have submissions as part of his offense.
Bukauskas' path to victory: stay on his feet. Use his long reach and keep Craig at bay. Do not engage in any grappling exchanges or wrestling. Outstrike Craig and look for a late TKO or an easy decision.
Fighter analysis: Paul "Bearjew" Craig
Craig has always been a bit of a wild card and fan favorite in the UFC. At 37, he's probably passed his athletic prime, but his submission skills are as dangerous as ever right now. Craig has 13 submission wins and is just another embodiment of "one mistake and your night is over."
Although his striking has never been a strong point, and although he is more confident in his skill, his boxing is still inconsistent with defensive weaknesses. Craig's main weakness is a complete inability to effect takedowns, with only 19% accuracy, which leads him to have to pull guard or create scrambles.
Craig's Strengths
Elite Submission Game—Craig is averaging 1.4 sub attempts per 15 minutes.
Durability & Resilience—Dangerous until the final bell
Experience—Close to 10 years in UFC with notable wins over Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, and Nikita Krylov
Fight-Changing Grappling—If Craig's fights hit the mat, he can end them in an instant.
Craig's Weaknesses
Low Striking Volume (2.54 per min)—At-distance minutes are hard to win when you throw so little.
Striking Defense (43%)—Craig eats damage far too easily.
Takedown Accuracy (19%)—Grappling is not imposing when you cannot take your opponent down.
Age & Cardio Concerns—Long fights are getting taxing for Craig at age 37.
Craig's Path to Victory: Create clinches, get scrambles, and find a submission opportunity. Craig will most likely need to finish the fight; a decision win seems very unrealistic.
Recent Performance of Both
Modestas Bukauskas
Vs Ion Cutelaba (Win, Split Decision)—Outlasted a wild brawler; 47% of his significant strikes landed.
Showed good managing distance and improved his composure.
Momentum: Has a winning streak and seems to be improving his confidence.
Paul Craig
Vs. Rodolfo Bellato (No Contest)—Fight ended by illegal upkick
Striking was accurate (62%), but there was not much meaningful action prior to stopping it.
Momentum: On a skid with three losses before the NC, raising questions about his form
Betting Markets
Betting Analysis
With Bukauskas as a heavy favorite, that tells you all you need to know about his striking advantage and Craig being an aging fighter.
Craig's submission prop (+400) is the only realistic avenue for success and may be a good value proposition for any bettors looking for a high upside.
Over/Under is a tough one—while Bukauskas isn't the fastest finisher out there, Craig's somewhat faded durability makes me hesitate. Maybe a late TKO?
Stylistic matchup breakdown
Striking edge: Bukauskas
Grappling edge: Craig
Cardio: Bukauskas
Old vs. Young: Craig has the experience; Bukauskas has youth and positive momentum.
This fight is a class control vs chaos situation, as Bukauskas will be hoping to have a clean bout, but Craig thrives in scrambles and messy exchanges.
Current Odds from Stake.com
Other Notable Fights on the UFC Paris Card
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Another clash of light heavyweight prospects, Sy enters with elite-level wrestling (2.22 TDS per 15 min), and Ribeiro brings KO power. The result could mark a new rising contender.
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Andreas Gustafsson
An interesting welterweight fight. Fakhretdinov's slow grind will face Gustafsson's 85% takedown defense. Expect a battle of attrition, possibly with title implications.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig: Expert Predictions
Most experts think this is Bukauskas' fight to lose. He has the right style with his striking, reach, and takedown defense to neutralize Craig's grappling threat. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more likely Bukauskas is to win with minimal trouble.
Craig's only realistic path to victory is to get Bukauskas to screw up, drag him into his guard, and find a submission. Craig is 37, and athleticism will be slowly declining. His error margin is smaller than ever.
Official Prediction:
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO (Round 2 or 3)
Conclusion: Will the Bearjew Pull Off One More Miracle?
The lights are on for an interesting light heavyweight fight in Paris. Modestas Bukauskas has the tools, youth, and momentum to set this fight and move himself in what is likely to be one direction—up the rankings. Paul Craig has the heart, experience, and submissions to always be dangerous but will need a miracle to pull off the upset.
For bettors, the smart bet is for Bukauskas to win by KO/TKO or decision, although throwing a couple of bucks for Craig to submit at long odds might catch the interest of some who love the wild cards.
Final Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO Round 2 or 3
