A highly anticipated matchup, or “clash,” between Novak Djokovic and Jan-Lennard Struff is happening during the US Open 2025: Men’s Singles Round of 16, which Djokovic, a seasoned 24-time Grand Slam champion, is going to play during the night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Struff is being sold at +460 and is desperate to go even further and maybe set history after knocking out seeded players Holger Rune and Frances Tiafoe. It’s no surprise that with Struff’s odds standing at +460, betting on Novak to win is at -600 with an 86% implausible win probability.
In this Djokovic vs. Struff 4th round, we break down the players in the form of head-to-head records, statistics, and expert predictions, in addition to going through the betting odds and how to watch.
Djokovic vs. Struff: Match Details
- Tournament: US Open 2025, Men’s Singles Round of 16
- Match: Novak Djokovic vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
- Date: Sunday, August 31st, 2025
- Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, NY
- Surface: Hard Court (Outdoor)
Head-to-Head Record: Djokovic vs. Struff
Total Meetings: 7
Djokovic Wins: 7
Struff Wins: 0
Djokovic has a perfect record against Struff, having won all seven of their previous matches. Out of those, six were decided in straight sets, with the only exception being a four-set clash at the 2020 Australian Open. Their latest encounter took place during the 2021 Davis Cup Finals, where Djokovic once again showcased his dominance. With such a strong head-to-head record, Djokovic looks like the favorite, but Struff's recent success and momentum might just give him an opportunity to win a set.
Player Form Guide
Novak Djokovic (Seeded No. 7)
2025 Season Record: 29-9
US Open Record: 93-14
Hard Court Win %: 84%
Recent Matches: W-W-W-L-W
Djokovic has looked strong, but not unbeatable, at the US Open 2025. He’s lost sets in earlier rounds, showing some weakness against younger opponents. His serve and return game, however, are still top-notch. With his sights set on a 25th Grand Slam title, motivation will not be an issue.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Qualifier, World No. 144)
2025 Season Record: 17-22
US Open Record: 9-9
Hard Court Win %: 48%
Recent Matches: W-W-W-L-W
Struff qualified and then completed two successive upsets, which he describes as a dream run. He averages more than 13 aces each match, and most of these serves come with a heavy touch. Coupled with his serve, his baseline play has enabled him to bully even the most highly ranked players.
But frequent double faults (6 per match on average) could prove costly against Djokovic’s return game.
Key Match Stats
Djokovic is chasing a record 25th Grand Slam title.
Struff is in the Round of 16 at the US Open for the first time.
Djokovic has never lost to a qualifier at a Grand Slam (35-0 record).
Combined player age: 73 years—the oldest fourth-round US Open clash in the Open Era.
Djokovic has an impressive 55-1 record against players ranked outside the Top 30 at the US Open.
Djokovic vs. Struff Betting
Value Bet: The over 35.5 games looks appealing. Djokovic has played some lengthy matches in New York this year. Struff is also known for pushing his opponents into tough battles. A four-set match seems quite likely.
Expert Analysis & Prediction
While Djokovic has a perfect 7-0 record against Struff, this match may not be as one-sided as the odds suggest.
Why Djokovic Will Win:
He has experience and remains calm under pressure in Grand Slam matches.
He has an exceptional return game that can really counter Struff’s serve.
He boasts an elite return game that can effectively handle Struff’s serve.
He shows fantastic physical endurance during long exchanges.
With such a strong head-to-head record, Djokovic looks like the favorite, but Struff's recent success and momentum might just give him an opportunity to win a set.
He’s on a roll after beating seeded players.
His aggressive baseline approach helps him wrap up points quickly.
We believe Djokovic will win the match in four sets. Though Struff will certainly put up a fight and may even take a serve, Djokovic’s ability to capitalize on Struff’s double faults will show supremacy as always.
Best Bet: Djokovic to win 3-1 + Over 35.5 games.
US Open 2025 – Bigger Picture
If Djokovic wins, he will reach his 14th US Open quarterfinal.
Struff is chasing history as one of the oldest first-time major quarterfinalists.
This match continues Djokovic’s pursuit of a historic 25th Grand Slam crown.
Final Prediction of the Match
Djokovic vs. Struff clash promises an electric night session at Arthur Ashe. The narrative is inspiring indeed with respect to German qualifiers, but it is highly likely that Djokovic will manage to somehow cross the finish line first on the strength of his skills, mentality, and impeccable record in Grand Slam tournaments. Prediction of the final score: Djokovic wins 3 sets with 1.
