While Christmas Day football is usually exciting enough on its own when the Dallas Cowboys face the Washington Commanders in an exciting NFC East game, there is always drama that goes along with it. Neither team has a chance at a playoff appearance this season, but this game has a lot at stake, including pride, trying to control a division, and evaluating each of the teams' rosters in preparation for 2026. As a result, Dallas is coming to the East Coast to play a wet, cold game at Northeast Stadium.

Because of the predicted weather, cold temperature, and moderate rain, both teams will be tested in their discipline, ball security, and depth. In these areas, Dallas definitely has the advantage. However, games between teams in the NFC East have a history of not following the logical flow of offenders, so it is expected that Washington will try and ruin Christmas for their most familiar opponent.

Key Details of Match

• Competition: NFL Week 17
• Location: Northeast Stadium, Landover, Maryland.
• Kick-off Time: 06:00 PM (UTC)
• Date: December 25th, 2025

Game Overview

• Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
• Weather Conditions: Cold, Rain (Heavy), Wind (Light)
• Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5 / -7.0
• Bet: Cowboys -337 / Commanders +267
• Over/Under: 50.5 total points scored

Dallas Cowboys: Looking for Momentum, Not Sympathy

The Cowboys enter Week 17 with a 6-8-1 record and are coming off of three consecutive losses. Even with this poor record, the Cowboys remain one of the league's best statistical offensive teams. Coach Brian Schottenheimer has observed the team having difficulty late in the games; however, there remains statistical evidence to support optimism with these statistics.

The Cowboys rank second in the league in total offense with an average of 28 points scored each game. Their offense has remained deadly through its passing game even when their efficiency level has dropped. Dak Prescott is also having another elite-level season. Prescott has thrown for 4,100+ yards and 28 touchdowns to date and has done so receiving off of a great supply of talent at the WR position. WR George Pickens and WR CeeDee Lamb form an explosive partnership. Pickens has become dangerous vertically, and Lamb continues to dominate below and after the catch. The combination of WR George Pickens with RB Javonte Williams (who rushed for 1,000+ yards) provides the Cowboys with a strong offensive balance that will succeed in harsh weather conditions.

The Dallas Cowboys have had a history of inconsistency defensively, as they have given up 28 points or more in four consecutive games; however, it's worth noting that these matchups have been against elite-level quarterbacks. Therefore, this upcoming matchup with the Washington Commanders, who may be starting their third string quarterback, -string greatly favors Dallas and provides them with a very distinct advantage on paper.

Washington Commanders: Grit, Growth, and Gloomy Circumstances

The Washington Commanders have had a tumultuous season that is reflected in their record of 4 wins and 11 losses. Head Coach Dan Quinn's focus on developing a competitive culture has been hampered by injuries, as well as by the instability of the quarterback position.

Offensively for Washington, the major source of success has come from the running game, where they are currently ranked as the third-best rushing attack in the league and have a reliance on physical running backs like Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. This reliance on the run allows them to possess the football, control the tempo of the game, and attempt to shorten the game in order to remain competitive. The biggest negative with the Washington Commanders is the ongoing quarterback situation. Jayden Daniels has been placed on injured reserve, while Marcus Mariota is currently being listed as day-to-day due to injuries to his hand and quadriceps. If Mariota cannot play, the Commanders are expected to turn back to veteran Josh Johnson, which will severely limit their ability to move the football on the offensive side of the ball.

In terms of total defense, Washington is placed at the bottom of the league by giving up almost 27 points per game. There are positive signs regarding Washington's defense, however. The linebacker role is being filled by Bobby Wagner, who is ranking at an elite level with his tackle totals and has been an anchor for the Commanders' defense. Furthermore, the Commanders are one of the top teams in the league in terms of sacks (43), ranking seventh in the NFL overall. Washington has also been able to generate turnovers that are often instrumental in determining the outcome of games while at least giving Washington some hope for tremendous future environments in such hostile environments.

Breakdown: Where Do You Win This Game Tactically?

Dallas Passing vs Washington Secondary

The Dallas Cowboys create the biggest mismatch with their passing game because they stretch the field, something that Washington has struggled to defend against. They allow the most yards per attempt in the league and combined with QB Dak Prescott's timing-based throws and play-action concepts; it may be hard for Washington to keep pace early on running the ball. With early success in the passing game, we should see Dallas force Washington out of its run-heavy offensive scheme.

Washington Rushing vs Dallas Front 4

In order for the Commanders to compete in this game, they must run the ball effectively and have sustained drives, as this keeps Prescott off the field and disrupts the rhythm of Dallas' offense. On the other hand, should Washington fall behind early, they lose this advantage.

Quarterback Disparity

In short, this game will come down to quarterback play. Prescott's experience, accuracy, and command of his offense far exceed that of any current Washington option. If the weather turns poor on game day, then decision-making becomes even more critical, and Dallas has a distinct advantage in that area.

Injury Observation and Depth Issues

The list of injuries for Washington continues to be long. In addition to uncertainty regarding their quarterback position, Washington also does not have pivotal contributors in Zach Ertz and Daron Payne, thus limiting the depth of both the offense and defense. Questions exist regarding the effectiveness of Washington's offensive line, which could be detrimental when defending against the Dallas Cowboys' pass rush.

Likewise, the Dallas Cowboys are not 100% healthy, but most of their defensive players are on track to play. The ability of Dallas to effectively rotate defensive players may prove to be very important towards the end of the game, particularly if weather conditions affect the players' stamina.

Betting Perspective Based on Trends and Market-Perceived Confidence

Markets constantly show confidence in Dallas:

• The Cowboys have gone 5-0 ATS against Washington in their last five.
• Dallas has won seven out of their last ten meetings head-to-head.
• Washington has gone 2-8 ATS in their last ten games.
• Most spread bets (over 75%) have come in in Dallas.

Even though Dallas has had a hard time winning games as a road favorite this season, the evidence suggests that the familiarity within their division and the stability of their quarterback will outweigh those concerns. The fact that the total is above 50 points is an interesting statistic to consider; however, with the weather conditions and the limitations of Washington's offense, the final score should probably be lower than most people expect.

Current Winning Odds from Stake.com

Prediction: Dallas will Win this Game Convincingly

Christmas Day is not a time when teams are generally vying for playoff spots; nonetheless, winning the division is important to most teams. Dallas has been known for having a strong home-field advantage during the past few seasons, but now they are trying to regain their divisional prominence after starting with a loss to Washington earlier this year.

As far as this game goes, expect Dallas to begin the game quickly by using their receivers against Washington's secondary with mismatches in players' size and speed. After that, Dallas will increasingly use its running game to keep the Washington defenders on the field, especially as they tire and the weather conditions worsen. Washington will certainly put forth some effort in this game, but without a reliable quarterback, their ability to sustain any type of offensive attack is going to be an uphill climb.

Final Prediction

• Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Total: Under 50.5
• Projected Score: Dallas Cowboys 27—Washington Commanders 20

Although Dallas is not headed to the postseason, they have an excellent opportunity to make a final statement about their supremacy in the NFC East, and their desire to do so on Christmas Day—under the blue and silver wraps of the Cowboys.