Matchday 17 is an important moment for the teams in Serie A as we get closer to the halfway point of the season. The true shape of this league will start to take form after this match. As we all know, the race for the scudetto (Serie A title) and European qualification grab most of our attention, and the media highlights it. But every season there are teams fighting to survive and where mental resilience, patience, and points are the three key areas for survival. On matchday 17 we will see two matches that exemplify the darker, sadder, more ruthless side of this league. Parma-Fiorentina at Ennio Tardini Stadium and Torino-Cagliari at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.

Neither of these matches has been promoted as big games and neither team in either match has received headlines on the front page of the major newspapers. Given that both matches represent a greater challenge for both teams' seasons and could be the difference between success and failure at the end of the season. These matches will be determined by results, not by what happens on the field and the discipline of each club will play a big role in the results of each match. In these types of games, every little mistake can have a large effect on multiple months moving forward.

Serie A Match 01: Parma Vs Fiorentina

• Competition: Serie A Match Day 17
• Date: December 27th, 2025
• Time: 11:30 AM (UTC)
• Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
• Win Probability: 28% draw 30% Fiorentina Win Probability: 42%

The winter portion of the Serie A is very difficult. All teams that are near the bottom of the table are referred to as "survival zones," and therefore, every survival zone match is like a vote on whether your club has enough faith to keep your place in Serie A. Both Parma and Fiorentina go into this match with their own unique thoughts and views about how to win; however, they both approach this match with the same sense of desperation. Parma and Fiorentina are both very historic football clubs that have passionate supporters; however, they both struggle with performance on the pitch against good teams, inconsistent play, and being fearful of falling even deeper into the survival zone.

Context: Living Just Above and Below the Line

Parma is ranked 16th in the league with 14 points. This places them very close to being relegated from the league; however, they are not yet relegated. Their position in the league reflects a season filled with very close matches that have either ended in favorable results for Parma or unfavorable. Their matches have either been very competitive, or they were not competitive enough to garner points. Conversely, Fiorentina finds themselves in a much worse position than Parma, currently sitting at the bottom of the league with just nine points. As such, Fiorentina is in search of any type of forward movement after spending most of this campaign searching for confidence instead of building their confidence.

While this match certainly has meaning based on standings, it is also significant for establishing some momentum for both clubs. The match will provide Parma with some reassurance of their structure as a team yielding favorable results. Alternatively, this match provides Fiorentina with an opportunity to prove that their victory last weekend was not just an anomaly.

Parma: A Functionally Competent Club That Lacks Ruthlessness in the Final Third

Parma's most recent run of matches (DWLLWL) reflects Parma's season thus far as a club that is functionally competent; however, they are a club that has also faced much adversity. Parma’s loss versus Lazio at home (0-1) was a particularly devastating result for Parma not only because they lost but also because of the circumstances in which they lost. Lazio was reduced to nine men during the match, while Parma had full control of the game, yet they still were unable to get a favorable result. This loss to Lazio served as a microcosm for Parma's entire campaign thus far demonstrating that they have a tactical discipline but lack the cutting edge needed to be competitive in their matches.

Carlos Cuesta has created a solid and organized system, but the numbers speak for themselves: Parma has scored only 10 total goals through 16 matches—one of the lowest-attacking productions in Serie A. They are still vulnerable at critical moments defensively and have conceded goals in 5 of the last 6 games they played. At home, the shape isn't much better. They have gone a total of 6 home games without winning any league matches at Ennio Tardini, which has adversely affected confidence levels and what was supposed to be a strength is now mental liability. Parma has very little belief when they give up an early goal.

Yet even with everything going on, there is still hope. They have not lost to Fiorentina in the last four league matches. This is a small bit of comfort in a difficult season. Adrián Bernabé continues to be a large part of their identity. He is composed under pressure, he makes sound decisions with his touches on the ball, and he could control the game's pace when given space to create.

Fiorentina: Euphoria or Wishful Thinking?

Fiorentina goes into the match in Parma with newfound euphoria, following their first dominant performance of the season, a 5-1 thrashing of Udinese. For the first time this season, the team, coached by Paolo Vanoli, appeared liberated: fluid in their attacking play, decisive when transitioning from defense to attack, and ruthless in front of goal, thanks to effective attacking combinations from Moise Kean, Albert Gudmundsson, and Rolando Mandragora.

However, it is also essential to put the victory in perspective, as Udinese were reduced to ten men early in the match, and Fiorentina made the most of the opportunity presented to them by Udinese's reduced numbers, as it was a favorable situation for Fiorentina to exploit. Hence, the challenge will be to replicate that level of performance against a more controlled, evenly matched opponent.

Away from home, Fiorentina has been remarkably ineffective, with no wins in their eight away matches thus far. Statistically, they currently possess the weakest defense in Serie A with 27 goals conceded, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 matches across all competitions.

Nonetheless, although confidence is precarious, it can provide a significant psychological boost for Fiorentina players. The psychological element will be the true test of how well the players of Fiorentina respond to greater pressures when games become more tightly contested and the margins for error become thinner.

Head-To-Head: An Encounter Created from Equality

Parma-Fiorentina is one of the most tightly contested matches in Serie A history. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, five matches between these two clubs have ended in draws (including a goalless draw earlier in the 2025 season), with most having been low scoring. Most of their encounters have been characterized by low scoring, tightly fought battles. History has shown that neither team is likely to take risks, and both are acutely aware of what could happen if they do take risks.

Tactical Perspective: Keeping Control while Limiting Risk

Parma are expected to set up in a 4-3-2-1 formation looking for compact play and controlled transitions. In the midfield, Bernabé will anchor the team’s stability. Ondrejka and Benedyczak will be positioned to play between the lines behind Mateo Pellegrino. The primary objective for Parma will be to keep errors to a minimum rather than attempting to exert dominance over Fiorentina.

Fiorentina will more than likely set up in a 4-4-1-1 formation, trying to control possession with Fagioli and Mandragora and have Guðmundsson as the creator behind Kean. The midfield battle will be determined by the ability of each team to physically counter their opponent’s technical ability to impose their rhythm.

Prediction: Parma 1-1 Fiorentina

Fiorentina has a small advantage over Parma in terms of their chances of achieving a positive outcome; however, Fiorentina's away form is not conducive to that belief. Parma is a poor team, but if they are well-organized, they are tough to defeat. This makes a draw a very realistic score and also reflects that both teams are still trying to find their way.

Serie A Match 02: Torino vs Cagliari

• Matchday: 17 of Serie A
• Date: December 27, 2025
• Kick-off: 2:30 PM UTC
• Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
• Win Probability: Torino 49% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 23%

In case the duel between Parma and Fiorentina indicates ‘fragile hope’, that between Torino and Cagliari is ‘controlled ambition’. It is a duel of control where the emotional control and positional intelligence are the most dominating factors rather than the attacking flair.

Torino: Stability Returned, Depth Uncertain

Torino's recent results (DLLLWW) indicate a return to form following an unstable period. Two consecutive 1-0 victories against Cremonese and Sassuolo have helped restore Torino's composure and clarity. Although Marco Baroni's team may not dazzle opponents with their attacking prowess, if they are working well as a unit, they are difficult to disrupt. Torino's recent victory over Sassuolo exemplifies the style and identity that Torino is developing at this time: a compact playing style with the use of efficient play development, all combined with a measured approach to developing games and an ability to maximize scoring opportunities at critical times. In a way, Nikola Vlašić's winning shot may not have been a strong shot, but it was sufficient for Torino to achieve the victory they needed.

However, the roster for Torino has limited depth, and that is becoming noticeable as they are missing players due to international duty and suspensions. The long-term injuries to Perr Schuurs and Zanos Savva have left Torino unable to rotate players on the defensive end, which is affecting their defensive plays. In six matches recently, Torino has given up ten goals, which shows the inconsistencies in their defensive game. Torino will continue to utilize the 3-5-2 formation as a major element of their overall strategy, as Duván Zapata's physical attributes and Ché Adams' ball movement will be instrumental in applying pressure to the opposing teams and providing ball movement from the front line. Controlling the midfield will allow Torino to stop the transition plays of their opponents due to Kristjan Asllani being the anchor for them in the midfield.

Cagliari: Courage Without Consistency

Cagliari has been performing at a high level in game play during the last few weeks with a record of (DLDWLD) in their matches. However, Cagliari is finding it difficult to finish games with solid play. For instance, the recent match against Pisa resulting in a score of 2-2 shows this well because while they had produced a great attacking effort, their defense was unable to maintain its strength.

There are good things. Nine goals over the last six games show an improvement in offense; Semih Kılıçsoy appears to be a player willing to put himself in any situation without hesitation; Gianluca Gaetano, meanwhile, adds a level of creativity. Cagliari can be dangerous when they have room to attack. On the other hand, there is still inconsistency defensively. They have allowed goals in five of their last six matches and have failed to win in their last six away matches. One of the things that is problematic is maintaining their concentration, especially at the end of games.

Furthermore, injuries complicate things for them. The loss of Folorunsho, Belotti, Ze Pedro, and Felici due to injury, along with several players being called up to national teams, leaves their head coach, Fabio Pisacane, with little choice but to rely upon discipline and structure rather than depth.

Tactical issues: Territory vs Tempo

Torino aims to establish themselves in terms of territory, looking to utilize wing-backs Lazaro and Pedersen to stretch play without compromising their formation. The primary aim of Torino will be to score first and gain control of the tempo of the game.

Cagliari will be pragmatic in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on building a compact shape to create counterattacks, and staying alive in the early stages will be critical for them. Set pieces and second balls could separate these two teams, as both teams appear reluctant to take chances by leaving themselves open to counterattacks.

Relevant Players (to Watch)

• Ché Adams (Torino): Demonstrating strong movements off the ball, an intelligent approach to pressing, and the ability to impact a game with critical goals.
• Semih Kılıçsoy (Cagliari): Exhibits youthful exuberance and is a direct threat while representing Cagliari’s most significant attacking option.

Prediction: Torino wins 1-0

There is a stark difference between the home performance and developmental momentum of Torino versus Cagliari’s away vulnerability. Although the manner in which Torino wins might not be pretty, they will likely win nonetheless. It is through a disciplined victory that a narrow victory will ultimately be obtained.

The Subtle Conflict of Serie A

While these contests won’t decide on the title race, they will shape the emotions surrounding Serie A. Moreover, surviving in Serie A has less to do with skill and more with self-discipline, patience, and mental fortitude. In Parma and Torino, players will face pressure to perform, have little room for error, and will endure lasting repercussions. In the end, these matches provide the opportunity for the turning point of many seasons to begin.