The finish is within reach in Paris, but the Tour de France 2025 is not finished. On Saturday, July 26th, riders face the last challenge in the mountains: Stage 20, an arduous 183.4 km between Nantua and Pontarlier in the Jura mountains. It's a non-summit finish stage, but with enough climbs, strategy, and desperation to shake up the general classification one final time.
After three tough weeks, this is the final phase in which openings can be created. A brazen GC assault, breakaway savior, or show of nerve from a spent legend, Stage 20 promises drama on every turn.
The race navigates through the Jura Mountains, preferring sharp tactics to brute force. Without long climbs at altitude, it's a matter of sustained efforts, quick changes, and coordinated teamwork.
Tactics & Terrain: Sly and Brutish
While Col de la République (Cat 2) becomes the odd one out in the middle stage, the real danger is the cumulative effect of the medium climbs. Every push drains what little energy riders have left. The Côte de la Vrine closer to the finish could be the launchpad for attacking late.
This profile favors:
GC riders who need to take back time.
Stage winners who can climb well and descend aggressively.
Teams who are willing to risk everything
Look for a dirty fight for the breakaway, especially from riders outside of GC contention who see this as their last hope for glory.
GC Stand: Can Vingegaard Shake Pogačar?
As of Stage 19, the GC stands as follows:
| Rider | Team | Time Behind Leader |
|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | UAE Team Emirates | — (leader) |
| Jonas Vingegaard | Visma–Lease a Bike | +4' 24" |
| Florian Lipowitz | BORA–hansgrohe | +5' 10" |
| Oscar Onley | DSM–firmenich PostNL | +5' 31" |
| Carlos Rodríguez | Ineos Grenadiers | +5' 48" |
Pogačar is unstoppable, but Vingegaard has a history of popping out of nowhere with late attacks. If Visma's plan is to launch a full-stage attack, Pontarlier's rolling style could be the perfect ambush.
At the same time, Lipowitz, Onley, and Rodríguez are in a desperate fight for the last podium spot a subplot that can blow wide open if one of them cracks.
Riders to Watch
| Name | Team | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | UAE | Yellow jersey – defending |
| Jonas Vingegaard | Visma | Aggressor – GC challenger |
| Richard Carapaz | EF Education–EasyPost | Stage hunter |
| Giulio Ciccone | Lidl–Trek | KOM contender |
| Thibaut Pinot | Groupama–FDJ | Fan-favorite farewell attack? |
Hope for one or both of these names to light up the stage, especially if the break is left to breathe.
Stake.com Betting Odds (July 26)
Stage 20 Winner Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Richard Carapaz | 4.50 |
| Giulio Ciccone | 6.00 |
| Thibaut Pinot | 7.25 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 8.50 |
| Matej Mohorič | 10.00 |
| Oscar Onley | 13.00 |
| Carlos Rodríguez | 15.00 |
GC Winner Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | 1.45 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 2.80 |
| Carlos Rodríguez | 9.00 |
| Oscar Onley | 12.00 |
Insight: Bookies clearly believe Pogačar's got the Tour in his pocket, but Vingegaard's price is irresistible for those expecting a heroic build-up on Stage 20.
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Conclusion: The Final Battle Before Paris
Stage 20 is no afterthought it's the last real opportunity to write the script for the 2025 Tour. It's whether Vingegaard rolls the dice on everything, a young talent surprises us at the podium, or a breakaway wordsmith writes their own fairytale, Saturday contains beautiful chaos in the Jura.
With tired legs, frayed nerves, and stakes so high, anything is possible and history shows us that mostly they do.
Stay tuned. This stage might just be the one they talk about for years.
