UFC: Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen Fight Prediction

Sports and Betting, News and Insights, Featured by Donde, Other
Oct 18, 2025 10:30 UTC
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The UFC Middleweight division takes center stage in Canada as the surging Dutch contender Reinier "The Dutch Knight" de Ridder (21-2) faces off with the dangerous last-minute replacement Brendan Allen (25-7) in the main event of a pivotal Fight Night card on Saturday, October 18th, 2025. This five-round bout is a high-stakes match between elite grapplers with massive middleweight title implications. De Ridder, 4-0 in the UFC and undefeated, is seeking a finish to put himself squarely in the title picture for a shot at champion Khamzat Chimaev. Allen, who accepted the fight on short notice, is looking to score a historic upset and place himself in the division's top five. The fight is turning out to be a complex game of chess, won by strength, position, and whoever can dictate the terms of combat.

Match Details & Context

  • Date: Saturday, October 18th, 2025

  • Kick-off Time: 02:40 UTC

  • Venue: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada

  • Competition: UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen (Middleweight Main Event)

Context: Former two-division ONE Championship titleholder De Ridder is fighting for a clear title shot. Allen took the fight on short notice for Anthony Hernandez, and it sent a massive opportunity to the main event. According to the event's official rankings, De Ridder is #4 and Allen is #9 ranked in the Middleweight division.

Reinier de Ridder: The Submission Threat

De Ridder has been one of the surprise packages of 2025, immediately announcing himself as a middleweight title challenger with his suffocating, relentless style.

Momentum and record: 21-2-0 (4-0 in the UFC). In July 2025, he defeated former champion Robert Whittaker by split decision in his most recent bout.

How they fight: Judo and submission grappling. De Ridder uses his 6'4" height and advanced judo skills to quickly close the gap and start the clinch and takedowns. He moves from dominant positions to chokes (Rear-Naked Choke, Arm-Triangle) quickly and smoothly, which makes them very dangerous.

Key Stats

  • Takedown Average: 2.86 per 15 minutes.

  • Control Time: Amassed over nine minutes of control time in his victory over Whittaker.

  • Recent Finish: Secured a KO victory over highly touted prospect Bo Nickal in May 2025 with vicious knees to the body.

  • The Story: According to De Ridder, "I need to finish him, so that's what I'm coming for, so I have a chance to fight for the title."

The Sturdy Grappler: Brendan Allen

An interesting challenge to De Ridder's grappling prowess is Brendan Allen, a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) black belt.

Record & Momentum: 25-7-0. Allen snapped a two-fight losing skid with a unanimous decision victory over veteran contender Marvin Vettori in July 2025.

Fighting Style: High-Volume Striking and BJJ. Allen is famous for his stand-up, which is constantly improving, and his granite cardio that allows him to maintain a high pace for five rounds. He believes his well-rounded skillset provides him with an edge over De Ridder.

Key Challenge: Allen's best hope is to push the fight into the championship rounds (4 and 5), where De Ridder has shown he has a tendency to fade when opponents survive his early grappling assault.

The Narrative: Allen is confident in himself, stating, "I think I'll break him because I'm better everywhere. I don't think his grappling's better than me. A lot of guys are scared of his grappling. I'm not scared at all."

Tale of the Tape & Betting Odds

The tale of the tape shows De Ridder's size and reach advantages that are so crucial in a grappling-dominant bout.

StatisticReinier de Ridder (RDR)Brendan Allen (ALLEN)
Record21-2-025-7-0
Age3529
Height6' 4"6' 2"
Reach78"75"
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
TD Accuracy27%35% (Est.)
Significant Strikes/Min.2.953.90 (Est.)

Current Betting Odds via Stake.com

betting odds from stake.com for the ufc match between reiner de ridder and brendan allen

The betting market heavily leans towards the Dutch prospect, reflecting his size and victory record over top UFC names, but Allen's short-notice DNA and solid skills give him a live underdog.

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Prediction & Final Analysis

This is a legitimate high-level grapple-fest, and the key to winning is through positional dominance. De Ridder's raw size, superior chain wrestling, and aggressive submissions will be too much for Allen to defend continuously for 25 minutes. As threatening as Allen's BJJ and cardio are, the physical strength difference and De Ridder's desperation to secure a finish (as he stated) will be the deciders.

Tactical Expectation: De Ridder will close the distance early, utilizing the clinch and takedown attempts. Allen will employ technical defense and scrambles, looking for opportunities to land clean shots at distance.

  • Prediction: Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission (Round 3).

Who will Hold the Champion's Belt?

De Ridder vs. Allen is a critical eliminator in the middleweight division. A finish win here would solidify De Ridder as the undisputed number one challenger for the middleweight belt, and a victory for Allen would shoot him directly into the top five. De Ridder will have the pressure of performing, but the fact that he has consistently risen to the occasion in high-pressure situations time and time again shows he's equal to the challenge.

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