The 2025 US Open has started, and the intriguing first-round clash between Daniel Altmaier and Hamad Medjedovic on Court 13 has already ignited speculation on how this battle of the ATP Top 70 players will unfold. This matchup, much like the others involving Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner, is expected to be a sumptuous display of tennis, and not to be overlooked are the other suspenseful matches and unforeseen faceoffs in the opening round. The mystery of which new signatures will surface only intensifies as the spotlight shifts to yet another of the tournament's highlights: Alexander Zverev's initial confrontation with Alejandro Tabilo. Not only does Zverev's match promise fireworks, but Tabilo's determination to shake the tennis world adds an unpredictable edge to the proceedings.

Daniel Altmaier takes the court seeking to end a difficult run of results with consistency hard to come by since a promising clay season, which included a fourth-round run in Roland Garros. He has struggled on hard courts, losing first-round matches in Washington, Toronto, and Cincinnati, before suffering further indignity in Cancun Challenger events, where he could muster only one win. 

Still badly out-of-sorts, Altmaier is capable on hard courts with a lot of upsides when on song. His flat groundstrokes and ability to accelerate the rally, as well as the weight on his forehand, can pose problems for opponents who are not ready to match pace. His biggest challenge, however, now is creating self-induced mistakes and inconsistencies on serve, which may lead to him allowing a confident opponent like Medjedovic an easy victory.

Hamad Medjedovic of Serbia looks to be a rising star, coming into Flushing Meadows in good form after a good comeback from an earlier injury this year. In Cincinnati he had a breakout of sorts, getting past 2 solid players and taking Carlos Alcaraz to somewhat of a battle in straight sets.

The 22-year-old then had a good run in Winston-Salem as he put together three solid wins before making the quarterfinals. Medjedovic's huge serve and fearless play from the baseline make him naturally threatening on hard courts. He always looks to dominate the points early, and both his serving and first strikes will put opponents like Altmaier on the back foot.

Their rivalry is currently in a state of equal footing, with both players winning one match apiece. In a quirky quirk, both previous matches were on entirely different surfaces, Marseille indoors (hard) and Roland Garros (clay). The US Open will be their first match ever on outdoor hard courts at a Grand Slam, a neutral gauge for both players.

Analysis: All of the statistics favor Medjedovic with a momentum and serving advantage, while Altmaier reveals inconsistency while being vulnerable to pressure.

The matchup is almost the proverbial experience versus momentum. Altmaier has more Grand Slam experience but lacks confidence leading into what he must consider a huge event for him. Conversely, Medjedovic has been in form, healthy, and oozing confidence, and he has shown he enjoys playing on hard courts where he can impose his more aggressive, first-strike game.

Hard courts reward exploitative play and encourage players to get on the front foot and dictate rallies with first strokes of the ball—pace, consistency, and accuracy. With Medjedovic's first serve percentage of 71% and aggressive backing up with strokes from the baseline, Medjedovic is created perfectly for this surface of play. Altmaier's ability on the defensive side and his flicker of brilliance will need to reach their peak if he wants to suppress Medjedovic's offensive cadence.

• Win Probability: Medjedovic 69% – Altmaier 31%

• Suggested Bet: Winner—Hamad Medjedovic

• Value Market Bets:

  • Medjedovic to win 3-1 

  • Over 36.5 games (we expect a competitive four-set match)

  • Medjedovic to win the first set

More than just a battle of ranking levels, the 2025 first-round match-up of Daniel Altmaier vs. Hamad Medjedovic has the two players competing for different goals—one trying to reaffirm his form, and the other, new to the tour and trying to show the world that he is part of the next generation of tennis.

There are a lot of great narratives coming into the 2025 US Open, and one of the featured opening-round clashes is Alexander Zverev, the No. 3 seed, versus Alejandro Tabilo of Chile at Flushing Meadows.

On paper, it is easy to think this would be a calamitous mismatch, but tennis fans know better. Zverev is coming into the last Grand Slam of the year with a fresh outlook after sitting out for some time following the embarrassment of losing at Wimbledon. Tabilo will walk into this match ranked outside of the top 100 and technically comes into the match as a well-defined underdog, but Tabilo has proven to be a dangerous player, as he has previously knocked off players other than Zverev, including Novak Djokovic.

These two have met just once on the ATP Tour, but it was an entertaining encounter. At the 2024 Italian Open, Tabilo stunned the German early on in the semifinals, winning the first set 6-1, before Zverev showed tremendous fight and focus, eventually winning 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2.

That match in Rome revealed two significant facts:

On the hard courts of the US Open with best-of-five sets, Zverev should have the advantage, but Tabilo has both ways of brilliance in him.

Zverev’s numbers are solid. He is very difficult to beat when he is serving well on hard courts.

The Chilean lefty hasn’t had it as easy this season:

While the numbers indicate that he is challenged to find his rhythm on hard courts, the statistics do not capture that he may have the ability to find flow when he can play with variety.

When we look at the matchup for betting purposes, there are definitely some areas of interest:

Given the form of the two players, their hard-court stats, and their playing styles, there is nothing to indicate Tabilo can put Zverev in any serious danger, and barring an injury, Zverev should advance with relative ease. Tabilo is going to enjoy portions of success with his variety, but it is difficult to believe his power game will not win out in the end. 

The First Serve of Zverev: If he can keep the double faults low, it will most likely be one-way traffic.

The first round of the US Open is almost always laced with drama; however, a comfortable win by Alexander Zverev is expected in this match-up to put Alejandro Tabilo to sleep. Zverev has the better record and sharper weapons and is ready to compete with a renewed focus, which will help him get off to an authoritative start.