The UFC is returning to Abu Dhabi on July 26th, 2025, with an intriguing bantamweight encounter between Bryce "Thug Nasty" Mitchell and Said Nurmagomedov as a make-or-break encounter for the two men. Mitchell seeks redemption in his divisional debut, while Nurmagomedov aims to capitalize on home-turf advantage in the Middle East.

This fight is about more than yet another early card bout. For Mitchell, it's a chance to silence detractors and prove his checkered past won't control his future inside the cage. For Nurmagomedov, defeating a well-known commodity like Mitchell could be the springboard to bantamweight stardom he so badly requires.

With odds of -122 being slightly in Mitchell's direction over +102 Nurmagomedov, the fight is going to deliver fireworks when these contrasting styles face off in the Etihad Arena.

Mitchell enters this bout with a 17-3 professional record, but his recent performances are a disturbing portrait. The Arkansas native has lost two of his last three fights, both by vicious stoppages that exposed potential weaknesses in his fighting style.

His most recent outing against Jean Silva at UFC 314 ended in submission loss, particularly intriguing given Mitchell's image as a grappling specialist. Earlier still, Josh Emmett knocked him out cold in a brutal showing in which "Thug Nasty" thrashed about on the mat.

These losses forced Mitchell to make a difficult choice: dropping down to bantamweight for the first time in his UFC career. The transition is both a sign of desperation and hope, as Mitchell is hoping the reduction in weight will restore his physical strength while providing him with a clean slate.

Mitchell made his name with relentless wrestling and submission attacks. His pressure takedowns and suffocating top position have terrorized foes for years, racking up nine career submission victories.

Strengths are:

• Takedown precision: Excellent at completing takedowns from a variety of angles

• Ground dominance: Suffocating weight and submission attacks from top position

• Cardio stamina: Keeps going over three rounds

• Submission diversity: Threat with rear-naked chokes and unorthodox submissions like the twister

Yet Mitchell's recent performance on the battlefield speaks to a possible erosion of these key skills, leaving one wondering if Father Time is finally getting the better of the 30-year-old.

Mitchell's career veered into unfortunate controversy when podcaster comments brought universal revulsion from the MMA faithful. UFC President Dana White openly distanced himself from Mitchell's remarks, though eventually he permitted the fighter to continue fighting.

This debacle provides Mitchell with even greater motivation to put his money where his mouth is. A dominating victory at bantamweight would help him rebuild his public image while bolstering his career trajectory.

Despite the illustrious Nurmagomedov surname, Said established himself in the UFC with an 18-4 professional record. The 33-year-old Dagestani fighter delivers hard credentials and finishing ability to every bout.

Nurmagomedov's UFC career has had its ups and downs. His 7-3 promotional record shows bantamweight proficiency, if not yet a career breakthrough to contender standing. Most importantly, he's never finished in a pro career a display of his fight IQ and toughness.

Nurmagomedov presents a well-rounded repertoire that could cause Mitchell problems at various points:

Striking:

• Technical boxing combinations with good hand speed

• Good utilization of flying knees and kicks

• Lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute

• Deadly counter-striker with excellent timing

Grappling:

• Excellent submission defense (never finished)

• Deadly guillotine and rear-naked chokes

• Solid wrestling base characteristic of Dagestani warriors

• Excellent scrambling capacity and submission transition

His last win was via guillotine choke after only 73 seconds, demonstrating the finishing skill that makes him deadly against any fighter.

This bout is a fascinating stylistic confrontation. Mitchell's wrestling-oriented style meets head-on with Nurmagomedov's well-rounded skill set, creating numerous paths to victory for both men.

Mitchell's attack strategy will probably involve:

• Early takedown shots to gain control

• Heavy top pressure to break Nurmagomedov

• Submission attempts from dominant positions

• Leaning on size advantage (if that applies) to bully his guy

Nurmagomedov's strategy should be:

• Keeping the fight in the standing position where his striking prowess takes center stage

• Takedown defense and scrambling back to feet in a rush

• Combing for submissions in grappling phases

• Utilizing superior cardiovascular levels in later rounds

1. Weight Cut Issues: Mitchell's initial weight cut to 135 pounds is the area of significant uncertainty. Historically, fighters who drop in weight as they age usually have speed and recovery problems.

2. Venue Disadvantage: Coming out of Abu Dhabi as the stoppage victor provides Nurmagomedov quasi-home field advantage, perhaps fueling his career performance.

3. Finishing Skill: Both men possess real finishing skill, so early stoppage would be likely if either man takes considerable control.

4. Experience: While both have plenty of UFC experience, Nurmagomedov's bantamweight division experience could be significant.

According to Stake.com, today's odds are in favor of Mitchell at 1.78 and against Nurmagomedov at 2.09. Such relatively similar odds reflect the competitiveness of this bout.

Method of win odds tell us that:

• Mitchell by submission: 4.60

• Nurmagomedov by submission: 4.10

• Mitchell by decision: 2.55

• Nurmagomedov by decision: 4.70

The betting market expects a probable submission win by either of these fighters, but with Mitchell marginally more likely to win by decision.

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• Date: Sat, 26th Jul 2025

• Time: 6:00 PM ET / 11:00 PM UTC

• Location: Etihad Arena

The fight between Mitchell and Nurmagomedov will be an explosive battle, with both opponents capable of ending the fight either via submission or a close decision. Mitchell's effective grappling and chin, combined with his punch-taking ability, also make him a betting favorite to win on decision, though the status of Nurmagomedov and his tactical prowess cannot be discounted. Both competitors have much risk in this battle because it has the potential to make them top-tier competitors in their division and set them up well for future title opportunities.