Cricket fever has hit Lahore as Pakistan welcomes South Africa for the first test of a two-match series from October 12th–16th, 2025. With everything on the line and national pride at stake, cricket fans can expect to see skill, strategy, and endurance on display for five full days. It is scheduled for 05:00 AM UTC and will be hosted at Gaddafi Stadium, which is known to have spin-friendly pitches, a raucous atmosphere, and exceptional hospitality.

Cricket enthusiasts and bettors have plenty to ponder in what promises to be an exciting and competitive test series. With Pakistan playing at home and in spin-friendly conditions, we give them a 51% win probability for winning the first test, a draw at 13%, and South Africa a 36% win probability. 

While Pakistan and South Africa have locked horns on five Test occasions in recent years trying to determine a winner, South Africa has the edge with three victories, including a win earlier this year, and Pakistan has also won twice on their home ground, with both victories from 2021. The balance of power suggests that while Pakistan will be favored by the home field, do not sleep on the Proteas.

Pakistan will enter the Test match in high spirits. Shan Masood is set to lead the team, balancing strategic thought and calm leadership, along with the steady Imam-ul-Haq at the top of the order. Masood's last Test innings against South Africa was a solid 145, which illustrated his ability to anchor a batting order during a pressure situation.

Meanwhile, Babar Azam, Pakistan's leading run-scoring machine, continues to remain a model of quality and consistency after back-to-back half-centuries in the last Test series against South Africa. The middle-order league includes Kamran Ghulam and Saud Shakeel, who can grind out runs or up the ante if required. As always, the fighting spirit of Mohammad Rizwan will be at the forefront if any tough moments emerge in the innings.

Pakistan's spin options are intimidating. Noman Ali, Sajid Khan, and Abrar Ahmed are a menacing trio. Noman Ali's recent ten wickets illustrate Pakistan's potential to be lethal with their spinners, especially with a pitch like Lahore's. You obviously have Shaheen Shah Afridi as your spearhead of pace, bringing different elements of speed, bounce, and swing to what you already have. His form will set the tone from ball one. 

Shan Masood (c), Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam, Kamran Ghulam, Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Salman Agha, Noman Ali, Sajid Khan, Abrar Ahmed, Shaheen Shah Afridi

Analysis: Pakistan's line-up has opportunities. Their blend of experience, playing at home, and spin depth gives them slight favoritism in this series. The early key will be how quickly they spin options and adapt to the pitch conditions to apply pressure in the critical moments they come. 

The Proteas arrive with a quality pace attack but have weighing questions in the batting and spin departments. Aiden Markram is a captain and spinner and will be called upon to contribute runs. The struggles will come from Ryan Rickelton, Tony de Zorzi, David Bedingham, and Tristan Stubbs, who will still look to provide consistent output in subcontinent conditions.

Spin is a huge factor for the South Africans. Simon Harmer, Senuran Muthusamy, and Prenelan Subrayen present some variation, but don’t compare to the quality of Pakistan’s spin options. Besides Kagiso Rabada, who can be labelled a world-class match-winner among the bowling group, even he might be troubled if it gets hot and/or spin-friendly.

• Expected Playing XI (South Africa): Ryan Rickelton, Aiden Markram (c), Wiaan Mulder, Tony de Zorzi, David Bedingham, Tristan Stubbs, Kyle Verreynne (wk), Senuran Muthusamy, Simon Harmer, Prenelan Subrayen, Kagiso Rabada

• Analysis: South Africa will need to adjust quickly to counteract the Pakistan spin-heavy attack. The pacers may get some success early, but particularly the middle order and spinners may struggle, leaving South Africa a marginal winner in this opening Test.

The Gaddafi Stadium pitch should be firm and solid in terms of run scoring initially. Shaheen Afridi and Kagiso Rabada may see some movement early, but dominant spin will prevail as the pitch cracks and begins to wear. Conditions may be warm and dry throughout the five days, which means batting first may be more appealing.

• Toss Prediction: Batting first seems to be the more likely and better option for both teams—a chance to set a test for the opposition to chase, along with a decent pitch to exploit. 

With a world-class Pakistan team, playing at home, in spin-friendly conditions, they should be strong favorites to win. South Africa's lack of experience in the subcontinent and spin-heavy lineup gives them very little chance.

Predicted Match Outcome: 

• Pakistan wins by a score of 1-0.

• Player of the Match: Mohammad Rizwan (resilient batting).

• Top South African performing player: Kagiso Rabada (five-wicket hauls to be achieved).

• Analysis: Look for Pakistan to have control during the middle overs with spin bowling, while Afridi can absolutely break up the Proteas also with early wickets taken. South African players will need to unpack quickly; otherwise, they risk dropping the first test.

This two-match series commences Pakistan’s participation in the 2025–27 World Test Championship. The series is important in terms of momentum: Pakistan will want to lay down a strong marker, and South Africa, the incumbent WTC holders, will want to show adaptability in these conditions. The second test will be in a slightly different context, as spectators will get to see three ODIs and three T20s fixtures that follow for players, especially Babar Azam, Rizwan, Markram, Brevis, and others, to showcase their talents and hone strategies ahead of global tournaments.