England vs India 1st Test 2025: Match Predictions and Odds

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19 Jun 2025 11:15 UTC
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A Fresh Chapter in the Pataudi Trophy

Fans have circled June 20, 2025, on their calendars, when the long-awaited England-India Test series will open at Headingley, Leeds. The five-match series not only kicks off the new World Test Championship cycle (2025-2027), but it also marks the beginning of a new era in Indian cricket after icons Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma retired. Shubman Gill takes over as India's Test captain, while Ben Stokes leads an enthusiastic England squad looking to express itself at home.

  • Tournament: India Tour of England 2025
  • Format: Test (1st of 5)
  • Dates: June 20 - June 24, 2025
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC 
  • Venue: Headingley, Leeds, United Kingdom

With both sides undergoing significant changes and carrying a lot of ambition, the curtain-raiser promises to be a crucial barometer for the tone and energy of the whole series.

Match Overview

a cricket ball hitting a wicket
  • Win Probability: England 59%, Draw 8%, India 33%
  • Toss Prediction: Bowl First
  • Average 1st Innings Score at Headingley: ~304 runs
  • Historical Data: England has won four of the last six Tests at this venue, while India has managed just two wins in six appearances here.

Weather & Pitch Conditions

Weather Forecast (June 20-24):

  • Days 1-3: Sunny, max temp 29°C
  • Days 4-5: Cooler, max temp 23°C with slight rain predicted

Pitch Report:

Early on, Headingley has historically favored fast bowlers, with cloud cover helping swing. Batting becomes easier from Day 2 and Day 3, with spinners potentially being considered toward the tail end of the Test. Batting last can be tricky because of variable bounce and footmarks.

Team Analysis

England preview: Bazball meets experience

England, starting the World Test Championship, seeks to improve on an inconsistent 2023-24 cycle. The batting lineup looks strong, with Joe Root at its fulcrum, while the bowling attack is a mixture of experience and youth.

Key Players:

  • Joe Root: 1574 runs vs. India in 15 home Tests (Avg. ~75)
  • Harry Brook: 8 centuries, 11 fifties in 25 Tests
  • Brydon Carse: 27 wickets @ 19.85 since 2024

Predicted Playing XI:

Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Chris Woakes, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue, Shoaib Bashir

India Preview: A New Dawn Under Shubman Gill

With the retirement of Rohit and Kohli, the youths are provided the opportunity. The Indian team has exciting talents, many of them brilliant on the domestic and IPL circuit. For Shubman Gill, this series is of utmost importance to prove himself as a leader and as a batsman.

Key Players:

  • Yashasvi Jaiswal: Dominated England at home, now eyes overseas success
  • Jasprit Bumrah: The strike weapon on helpful pitches
  • Rishabh Pant: Game-changer in middle order

Predicted Playing XI:

Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Sai Sudharsan, Shubman Gill (c), Karun Nair, Rishabh Pant (vc & wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur, Mohammed Siraj, Jasprit Bumrah, Prasidh Krishna

Tactical Match-ups to Watch

1. Joe Root vs. Jasprit Bumrah

  • The battle of England's most dependable batter against India's pace spearhead could define this Test.

2. Pant’s counterattack vs. England's new-ball attack

  • Pant’s aggressive batting may disrupt the likes of Woakes and Carse if he gets going.

3. Young Indian top order vs. Bazball bowling philosophy

  • How Jaiswal, Sudharsan, and Gill manage England’s aggressive field settings and tempo will be crucial.

Key Stats

  • India at Headingley: Played 6, Won 2, Lost 4
  • England's last 5 Tests at Headingley: Won 4, Lost 1
  • Jaiswal in Tests vs. ENG: 3 Tests, 721 runs (Avg. 90+ in 2024 home series)
  • Chris Woakes at Home: 115 wickets @ 22.60

What Experts Say

Wasim Jaffer’s Take:

Former Test opener Wasim Jaffer prefers a blend of youth and experience. He backs Jaiswal and Rahul as openers, with Gill leading from the No. 4 spot. Notably, he ignores Nitish Reddy and Arshdeep Singh, hinting at the importance of red-ball experience in English conditions.

Historical Rivalry: The Pataudi Trophy Legacy

The Pataudi Trophy stands as a vivid reminder of the fierce Test cricket rivalry between India and England. England still edges the all-time record, yet India has outperformed them on home soil during the last few seasons. Put those same teams on English pitches, though, and the balance usually swings back towards the hosts.

Last Five Series Results:

  • 2021 (India in England): India led 2-1 before the fifth Test was postponed.
  • 2018 (India in England): England won 4-1.
  • 2016 (India in India): India won 4-0.
  • 2014 (India in England): England won 3-1.
  • 2012 (India in India): England won 2-1.

Prediction & Betting Tips

Match Prediction:

England has home advantage, a settled squad, and proven performances at Headingley. India, on the other hand, is in transition. Unless Bumrah and the Indian bowlers strike early and often, England is poised to take a 1-0 lead in the series.

  • Winner Prediction: England

Toss Prediction:

Win the toss and bowl first. The cloud cover on Day 1 offers assistance to seamers. Bowling first could swing the game.

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Final Predictions

High tension, fierce competitiveness, and plotlines that will influence the next generation of cricketing greats are all promised in the 2025 England vs. India series. Fans across the world will be riveted to the action as the series gets underway in Headingley. A hungry Indian team with a lot of promise could surprise everyone, but England is the obvious favorite with their established lineup and home advantage.

This test has something to offer everyone, whether you're a casual fan, a cricket connoisseur, or an avid bettor.

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