With the Bundesliga approaching its winter break soon, this final weekend before the winter is filled with severe consequences. While the Bundesliga title will not be awarded until after December, the developments made leading up to this date will: Momentum has been shaped: beliefs have formed; reflecting on the past, the future, and the present will be done under the cold skies and bright lights. The weekend has two crucial fixtures that show how much tension there currently is within the league. The first fixture, Borussia Dortmund against Borussia Mönchengladbach on Friday night, has been fueled by the pressure and pride. The second fixture, VfB Stuttgart against TSG Hoffenheim on Saturday afternoon, has ambitions of the local club being European football players.

Each of the stadiums is different, the goals are different, but what remains constant is the lack of time for hesitation.

Match 01: Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

• Competition: Bundesliga
• Date: December 19th, 2025
• Time: 07.30 PM UTC
• Venue: Signal Iduna Park
• Chance of Winning: Dortmund 62%, Draw 20%, Gladbach 18%

The atmosphere of the Signal Iduna Park is like no other on a Friday night. The floodlights shine brighter. The songs last longer. It will often be on a Friday night where the season turns for Borussia Dortmund, for either better or worse. With their final Bundesliga game of 2025, Borussia Dortmund will come home to a full stadium with all that is at stake. Bayern Munich had shown signs of weakness, and the gap between top and bottom in the league is still not yet insurmountable, but if a team continually ignores the opportunities that are presented to them, eventually they will come to realize that the door of opportunity no longer exists.

Borussia Mönchengladbach started the season as a team that was full of doubts but has since found their confidence with one of the more remarkable turnaround stories in the league. And this is more than simply Matchday 15, it is a stress test for Borussia Dortmund.

Why Dortmund Must Now Take Advantage of Their Current Success?

The Bundesliga table reflects that Dortmund is presently a worthy contender. They are currently 3rd, with 29 points and only 1 loss in the league this season. However, football season is not won on paper. The issue for Dortmund has not that they were fragile but that they were too cautious. With 5 draws so far this season, they have lost a lot of momentum. Rather than finishing at least 5 of those matches positively, Dortmund chose to be careful and only protect what they had rather than trying to create further opportunities for themselves or continue to control the match.

Last weekend's draw against Freiburg (1-1) was especially emblematic of Dortmund's current limitations. Bayern's shocking 2-2 draw against Mainz opened the door for Dortmund, and this latest set of results has clearly articulated what the club hierarchy has been stating, and that is that hesitation is no longer possible.

Dortmund Under Kovač: Structure, Stability, and Questions

Niko Kovač has unquestionably made Dortmund a much "tougher" team. They are now organized, disciplined teams that are difficult to beat. From a defensive perspective, they have only conceded one more goal than Bayern this season and this represents an incredible renaissance in comparison to previous seasons.

However, the attacking side of their game presents a more complex picture. Dortmund has only managed to be seventh in terms of goals scored, which is a startling figure for a team that is known for its aggressive approach in the strike zone. Possession typically favors Dortmund, and they generally have a defense that does not surrender territory, their final cut has been inconsistent. However, there is one statistic that shows that there is at least some comfort in this uncertainty; because Dortmund have scored in every Bundesliga and Champions League game they have played thus far.

At home, the doubts about their precision start to fade, Dortmund enjoy an unbeaten run of ten games at Signal Iduna Park in the Bundesliga and have won eleven of those last fifteen matches. Like a voltaic battery, the Yellow Wall could transform nerves into adrenaline-laced motivation when the heat is on.

Mönchengladbach: From Surviving to Self-Belief

Whereas Dortmund's 2015-16 season has been marked by restraint, the 2015-16 season of Gladbach has been marked by a new rebirth.

In November, they sat at the very bottom of the Bundesliga table, low in confidence, directionless, and full of uncertainty. Fast forward to the middle of December, and Eugen Polanski’s side has amassed a mind-boggling 13 points from their last 15 Bundesliga matches, giving them the most successful run of games so far this season. Gladbach's resurgence may not be the type of resurgence you hear about in the newspapers or see in television highlights, but it is a resurgence built on solid discipline, patience, and better game management.

Gladbach away from home:

• 3 consecutive away victories
• 8 goals scored
• 0 goals conceded

Dortmund must give Gladbach ample respect regardless of the 3-1 loss that ended their unbeaten streak vs. Wolfsburg last week: Gladbach were punished during the first half of that match, not over the full 90 minutes, and therefore were not 'destroyed.' Polanski's public comments about the team not being courageous were more of a challenge than anything else.

The Matchups on Friday Night

Guirassy vs the Back Three

For Dortmund's offense, Serhou Guirassy is still their primary option. His five goals this season don't illustrate how his movement, strength, and passing interplay create much of the structure upon which Dortmund operates. Like everyone else, he should keep his back line compact against Karim Adeyemi and Chukwuemeka, who frequently find themselves in the spaces between defenders.

Tabakovic: Results vs Looks

The Gladbach Renaissance was a team effort, but the most important player was Haris Tabakovic. Scoring seven goals (four of them in the last five games), he is a very effective player who can have a very significant impact on the result of a game with very few touches. With Dortmund's current issues keeping sheets clean in mind, the timing of Tabakovic's touches will be much more important than how many of them there are.

The Match Without Jude Bellingham

The loss of Jude Bellingham to suspension means that there will be less ball-carrying and drive from the Borussia Dortmund midfield. Whereas Pascal Groß and Felix Nmecha are not the same type of energetic vertical runners in midfield, they do bring creativity and control of the game through distribution. How Dortmund copes and manages to transition into their attacks without Bellingham will play a crucial part in dictating the pace and tempo of Saturday's match in Stuttgart.

Match Preview: Open, Emotional, Unforgiving

This match has all the makings of a high-scoring affair:

• Dortmund scored in all six of their recent meetings with Gladbach.
• Dortmund's average goals scored at home is more than two per game.
• Gladbach have scored in all their away victories during their recent run.

Dortmund will control possession, while Gladbach will take advantage of any chances offered by space. If the match stays level in the last 20 minutes of the second half, the momentum can sway significantly in Gladbach's favor.

Match 02: VfB Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim

• Competition: Bundesliga
• Date: December 20th, 2025
• Time: 14:30 UTC
• Location: MHP Arena
• Win Probability: Stuttgart 48% | Draw 24% | Hoffenheim 28%

Only one-point separates Hoffenheim in fifth place (26 points) from Stuttgart in sixth place (25 points). Both sides are competing for more than just league positioning—they are competing to validate themselves as worthy contenders this year. While a victory would not stretch either side to the top of the table, it would be a massive boost of confidence going forward into the winter break. This rivalry isn’t rooted in the past but is instead about two new sets of identities, intense coaching staff, and two teams that refuse to play conservatively.

Everything Is Contextual

Stuttgart follows an impressive away victory over Werder Bremen, 4-0, which demonstrated to the league just how dangerous Stuttgart’s current squad, led by coach Sebastian Hoeneß, can be when they possess both rhythm and courage. Last weekend, Hoffenheim quickly bounced back from their last match, where they had a solid but unspectacular performance, losing 2-0 at Dortmund, and put forth a similarly impressive 4-1 home victory over Hamburg.

Both Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are now in a position where both teams should have a strategy to move forward while also being confident enough to accomplish that strategy.

Stuttgart: Controlled Mayhem at the MHP Arena

Tempo drives Stuttgart’s style of play, and to maximize tempo, they are aggressive on the press, with their midfield extremely active and the forwards constantly making run over balls. If this aggressive approach works, then opponents are usually drowned.

If this approach does not work, there are typically many defensive gaps left open for opponents to exploit. Recent results illustrate the extremes:

• Dominant Matches: 4-0 vs Bremen, 3-2 vs Augsburg
• Many Heavy Losses: 0-5 vs Bayern
• Many High-Scoring Draws: 3-3 vs Dortmund

In Stuttgart's home stadium in MHP Arena, Stuttgart has been highly successful with only one loss in their last nine league matches in the MHP Arena. Stuttgart averages over two goals a match at home, with a crowd that pushes the team, rather than panicking when they encounter adversity.

With a 3-4-2-1 system, Stuttgart allows for some creativity without venturing into complete chaos. Angelo Stiller sets the tempo for his teammates. Leweling and Führich stretch the opposition, and it is Deniz Undav, with eight (8) league goals at the present time, that puts the finishing touch on every offensive endeavor through intelligent positioning rather than brute strength.

The Structure of Hoffenheim Has an Edge

When you look at Hoffenheim, managed by Christian Ilzer, you will notice that Hoffenheim possesses a balance of aggression and structure but doesn't have a sterile approach. Hoffenheim has an excellent away record (14 points from 7 games - 65%) because they don't focus on possessing the ball but instead concentrate on finding the right locations to attack their opponents.

The 4-3-1-2 formation that Ilzer preaches allows Andrej Kramaric to roam freely in between the lines, while his teammates make runs up and down the field to stretch the backline of the opposition. Kramaric's timing, experience and composure are Hoffenheim's biggest assets.

Stuttgart's Key Face-Offs

• Undav vs Kabak/Hranáč: Undav is constantly on the move, and Kabak/Hranáč are both defensive players and "stiff".
• Stiller vs Burger: Stiller has excellent timing and rhythm, while Burger is a physically strong player who excels at neutralizing opponents.
• Kramaric between the lines: Stuttgart's last three defenders must stay focused and alert to Kramaric's movement.

Both teams will apply high pressure and will look for opportunities to counter-attack quickly. Neither team will be comfortable sitting back for very long.

Why You Will See More Goals in the Bundesliga

The Bundesliga features two of the most attacking, pressing teams playing at ultra-high intensity. Both clubs have the ability to score goals regularly and also allow more than enough goals against than either team would like.

Also, both clubs have European aspirations and are both nearing the end of the year, so they are feeling pretty confident in their ability to produce more than one goal in this matchup. The first team to score will open up the floodgates.

Predictions and Final Thoughts

Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Borussia Mönchengladbach:

• Borussia Dortmund to win
• Goals by both teams
• Over 2.5 goals

Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim:

• Goals by both teams
• Over 2.5 goals
• Narrow home team win

The Bundesliga will go on holiday until after the New Year, and the above matches are not about winning trophies, they are about the future and which teams will be the most prepared to continue to compete after the winter break. These matches will be about momentum going into 2026 and which teams will have something to build on going into 2026 and which will have plenty of questions. As the Bundesliga prepares for winter, these two matches will remind teams in Dortmund and Stuttgart that momentum is earned, statements are made, and no one is listening to you in the Bundesliga.