On July 24th, Juventude and Sao Paulo meet in Round 16 of the 2025 Brazilian Serie A. The match takes place at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, where the host, Juventude, currently sitting in the relegation zone, will play against Sao Paulo, who is looking to build off of the much-needed victory. Both clubs are subpar this season, meaning this match is all about points and morale.
Major Details
- Date: July 24th, 2025
- Time: 10 PM (UTC)
- Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul
- Competition: Serie A, Brazil
What is the current position of both teams?
Juventude
Position: 18th (Relegation)
Matches: 13
Wins: 3
Draws: 2
Losses: 8
Goals For: 10
Goals Against: 28
Goal Difference: -18
Points: 11
Juventude has endured a very tough start to the 2025 campaign, having the leakiest defense in the league by giving up 28 goals in the first 13 games. Their most recent outing in the last round resulted in a 4-0 embarrassment to Cruzeiro and exhibited very glaring flaws in their structure and form.
São Paulo
Position: 14th
Matches: 15
Won: 3
Draw: 7
Loss: 5
Goals For: 14
Goals Against: 18
Goal Difference: -4
Points: 16
São Paulo recently flexed their muscles to a 2-0 win over their rivals Corinthians. This victory snapped a six-game winless streak. However, they are still their first road victory of the league season.
Team Analysis
Juventude
Crippling defensive mistakes: the side being coached by Cláudio Tencati has been an utter defensive nightmare, as they are the most porous club in the league. Conceding in excess of 2 goals per match, the team is far from being solid defensively. It is abundantly clear that Juventude are naive with their approach to games, almost always looking to be on the front foot; they have lost all 6 matches away.
Collectively they have scored only 10 goals in 13 matches, so it is no surprise the offense is uninspiring. At home they have found some resolve, gaining all 11 of their points at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Sao Paulo
Hernán Crespo's return has already produced some signs of improvement. In addition to Luciano's recent brace, the emergence of Gonzalo Tapia is giving some offensive hope to the team. The main issue is their inability to grasp victories away from home, as they have recorded four draws and three losses in seven away games so far.
Head-to-Head
Total Matches: 28
Sao Paulo Wins: 11
Juventude Wins: 7
Draws: 10
Sao Paulo had been unbeaten in eight games against Juventude up until a 2-1 loss at home in December of 2024. Juventude, historically, has not won this matchup at home, with their last victory in this regard back in 2007.
Team News & Predicted Starting XI
Juventude
Injury Concerns: Ewerthon, Rodrigo Sam, Cipriano, Rafael Bilu, Lucas Fernandes
Manager: Cláudio Tencati
Formation: 4-3-3
Projected Starting XI:
Gustavo, Reginaldo, Wilker, Marcos Paulo, Marcelo Hermes, Jadson, Caíque, Mandaca, Veron, Gilberto, Taliari
São Paulo
Injury Concerns: Luis Gustavo, Lucas Moura, Jonathan Calleri, Oscar, Ryan Francisco
Manager: Hernán Crespo
Formation: 3-5-2
Projected Starting XI:
Rafael, Ferraresi, Arboleda, Alan Franco—Cedric, Alisson, Marcos Antônio, Bobadilla, Wendell—Luciano, André Silva
Tactics and Key Players
Key Players
Juventude: Gabriel Veron (wide play), Gilberto (finishing), Marcelo Hermes (defensive cover)
Sao Paulo: Luciano (goalscoring threat), Andre Silva (linking up), Rafael (keeper heroics)
Tactical Insights
Juventude will likely go back to a 4-3-3 after their 4-4-2 was unsuccessful against Cruzeiro.
Sao Paulo may run with a 3-5-2 to establish good footing in midfield while also offering width through Cedric and Wendell.
The possession battle will be important. Juve will likely sit deep and look to counter on the transition. Sao Paulo will need to avoid being complacent and try to steer through a low block.
Match Prediction
Both teams have been inconsistent in their results; however, Juve at home gives slight hope. We can't back Sao Paulo with full confidence even after a big morale-boosting derby win.
Predicted Score: Juventude 1-1 Sao Paulo
Alternate Pick: Sao Paulo Win or draw (double chance)
Advice Tips
BTTS: Yes
Total Goals: Under 3.5
Asian Handicap: São Paulo (0)
Fun Fact: São Paulo is the draw king of Serie A with 7 draws.
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Final Analysis
Juventude has to be strong at home to get themselves out of the relegation zone, while São Paulo has to start winning to move up the table! Neither team is in great form, and both teams will be missing key players; a low-scoring draw or narrow win for São Paulo looks most likely.
Regardless, all signs are showing that this will be a tightly contested affair, with tactics and possibly drama late in the game.
Final Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Best Bet: São Paulo Double Chance + BTTS
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