Turkey vs Spain – Group E World Cup Qualifier

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Sep 7, 2025 13:30 UTC
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The much-awaited clash between Turkey and Spain will take place at the infamous Torku Arena in Konya on 7th September 2025, being the premier match of the tournament. This match has the capability to change the course of its group. This could also hugely impact the qualification endeavors of World Cup on either side.

Kickoff is at 18:45 UTC (21:45 CEST local time), and fans around the world are already anticipating the match and what comes with this high-stakes battle. Spain enters as the reigning European champions after lifting the Euro 2024 trophy following their victory over England, while Turkey arrives with some confidence after reaching the latter stages for their turn as quarter-finalists in the same tournament.

Match Context: Why Turkey vs. Spain Matters

When it comes to World Cup qualifying, nothing is easy, and Group E is as competitive as they come, with Spain, Turkey, Scotland, and Croatia battling for automatic qualification and a playoff spot for 2nd place.

  • Spain is on top of the group after a 3-0 victory over Bulgaria, where they showed why they are the favourites to qualify.

  • Turkey, who are led by Coach Vincenzo Montella, started with a 3-2 away win in Georgia while highlighting some defensive issues late in the match.

For Turkey this is about more than 3 points—it's a chance to showcase that they can contend with the best of Europe after years of turmoil in World Cup qualification. The last time Turkey qualified for a World Cup was the 2002 third-place finish.

Spain will be trying to build on their momentum and is under pressure not to replicate their disappointing World Cup efforts from recent tournaments (2014 group stage exit, 2018 and 2022 round of 16).

Venue & Atmosphere – Torku Arena, Konya

This matchup is being played at Torku Arena (Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu), known for the passionate Turkish crowd. Torku Arena can be daunting for opponents and will hopefully give Turkey an advantage from the outset. 

  • Capacity: 42,000

  • Pitch condition: High-quality grass pitch in good condition.

  • Weather forecast (07.09.2025, Konya): Mild evening at the outset with temperature around 24°C, humidity low, and there will likely be a light breeze. Perfect conditions for attacking football.

Spain does have experience in front of hostile crowds and is likely no better than playing in front of 42000 vocal home Turkish supporters; however, they can unsettle opponents and could play a role to help a fast start for the home team.

Recent Form – Turkey

Turkey, under manager Vincenzo Montella, is potentially on the upward curve, with a good balance of youthful players and seasoned veterans. Their recent form shows promise but also shows some defensive frailties as well.

Last 5 Results:

  • Georgia 2-3 Turkey – World Cup Qualifier

  • Mexico 1-0 Turkey – Friendly

  • USA 1-2 Turkey – Friendly

  • Hungary 0-3 Turkey – Friendly

  • Turkey 3-1 Hungary – Friendly

Key Trends:

  • Scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.

  • Conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.

  • Heavily reliant on Kerem Akturkoglu, who has scored 7 goals in his last 10 competitive matches.

  • Possession average: 54%

  • Clean sheets in last 10 matches: just 2

Turkey clearly has attacking flair, but their defensive lapses make them fragile against the best sides like Spain.

Recent Form – Spain

Spain under Luis de la Fuente looks like a well-oiled machine, and their victory in Euro 2024 has reinstated confidence in this new generation, as they have made a strong start to qualifying.

Last 5 results:

  • Bulgaria 0-3 Spain – World Cup Qualifier

  • Portugal 2-2 Spain (5-3 pens) - Nations League

  • Spain 5-4 France - Nations League

  • Spain 3-3 Netherlands (5-4 pens) - Nations League

  • Netherlands 2-2 Spain - Nations League

Key Trends:

  • Averaging 3.6 goals per match in their last ten matches in competition.

  • Since March 2023, he has scored in every game.

  • Average possession: 56%+

  • 91.9% pass accuracy

  • There are 18.5 shot attempts each game.

Spain's attacking combination of Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams, and Lamine Yamal has been outstanding, while midfield pillars Pedri and Zubimendi have provided the required balance. However, they have shown vulnerability at the back, especially in high-pressure matches, leaving us to wonder whether they can silence Turkey.

Head-to-Head Record—Spain vs. Turkey

Spain has a historical advantage in this matchup:

  • Total matches played: 11

  • Spain wins: 7

  • Turkey wins: 2

  • Draws: 2

Recent games:

  • Spain 3-0 Turkey (Euro 2016 group stage)—Morata scored 2 goals.

  • Spain 1-0 Turkey (Friendly, 2009)

  • Turkey 1-2 Spain (World Cup Qualifiers, 2009)

Spain has not lost in the last 6 matches against Turkey, winning 4. The last time Turkey defeated Spain was 1967 at the Mediterranean Games.

Team News & Starting Lineups

Turkey Team News

  • No new injuries after their win against Georgia.

  • Kerem Akturkoglu will lead the attacking effort. 

  • Arda Guler (Real Madrid) is expected to start as the playmaker. 

  • Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) provides pace and creativity in the attacking front.

  • Captain Hakan Calhanoglu continues to control from the midfield. 

Starting lineup (4-2-3-1)

Cakir (GK); Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Elmali; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Akgun, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu.

Spain Team News

  • Lamine Yamal is expected to recover from a minor back injury. 

  • Merino, Pedri, and Zubimendi will likely once again make up the midfield.

  • Nico Williams and Oyarzabal will be in the starting lineup in attack with Yamal.

  • Alvaro Morata may feature off the bench.

Projected Starting XI (4-3-3):

Simon (GK); Porro, Le Normand, Huijsen, Cucurella; Merino, Zubimendi, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, N. Williams.

Tactical Overview

Turkey

  • Will anticipate obtaining Spain's passing rhythm through a high press.

  • Will look to produce rapid counterattacking to assist Yildiz and Akturkoglu.

  • Dependent on Çalhanoğlu to put the ball in dangerous areas for scoring chances.

  • Exposed to danger when their fullbacks get high as it relates to any attacks from Spain too.

Spain

  • Preferred possession (60%+) and short passes to get rhythm and build-up.

  • Use width from their speed on the wings (Yamal & Williams) to stretch out the defence.

  • Dynamic midfield trio to manage the tempo of games to recycle the possession.

  • Historically, Spain will have +15 shot opportunities.

Odds & Insights

Win Probabilities

  • Turkey Win: 18.2%

  • Draw: 22.7%

  • Spain Win: 65.2%

Betting Trends

  • Spain BTTS (both to score) occurred in 4/5 last matches

  • Turkey scored 2+ goals in 4/5 last matches. 

  • Spain scored over 2.5 goals in 7/8 games.

Betting Selection

  • Spain Win, and Over 2.5 Goals

  • BTTS - Yes

  • Kerem Akturkoglu anytime 

  • Lamine Yamal assist

Key Stats to Remember

  • Spain has not lost a competitive qualifier since October 2021.

  • Turkey conceded in 11 of their past 15 internationals.

  • Spain averaged 24 total shots in each of their last 5 matches.

  • With both teams committing 13+ fouls per match, this will be a physical battle.

Final Prediction: Turkey vs. Spain

This match shows full potential to become thrilling. While Turkey will be counting on the home advantage, attacking play, and boisterous fans to unsettle Spain, Spain will counter with technical superiority, depth in the roster, and an offensive style of play.

  • Final Score Prediction: Turkey 1-3 Spain
  • Main Bet: Spain to win and over 2.5 goals
  • Alternate Bet: Both Teams to Score

Spain will dominate possession, have a lot of chances to score and simply be too good for Turkey. But Turkey will probably get a goal, likely from Acturkoglu or Guler, so I expect the score to be competitive. 

Conclusion

This World Cup qualifier for Spain vs Turkey (07.09.2025, Torku Arena) is more than a group game; it tests Turkey’s ambitions and Spain’s consistency. Spain is aiming to secure 1st place in the group quicker, and Turkey needs the points to secure a playoff position.

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