The Christmas lights are shining brightly over North London, and the Premier League has taken its break, but at the Emirates Stadium it will be a completely unique story as two teams from the capital go head-to-head in a London derby for major silverware! Arsenal will once again play Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup quarterfinal stage for the second consecutive season, and the stakes are high for a semifinal place and an exciting trip to Wembley.
For Arsenal, this competition is an opportunity to finish what they started. For Crystal Palace, the EFL Cup is an opportunity to show their resilience after a difficult run of fixtures filled with injuries and fatigue. The match showcases a particularly noticeable difference in momentum, squad depth, and confidence and is one of the most entertaining matches that the holiday footballing calendar has to offer.
Key Match Details
- Competition: EFL Cup Quarter-Final
- Date: 23rd December 2025
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- Start time: 08:00 PM (UTC)
Arsenal: Dominance, Depth, and a Sense of Destiny
Arsenal's history with the EFL Cup has been complicated due to the obvious hereditary issues. Seeing as the Gunners are one of the top clubs in the Premier Leauge, it has been surprising to only see them win the EFL Cup twice, in 1987 and 1993. Since that time, they have watched rival clubs win the domestic cup competitions while they have struggled. However, under Mikel Arteta, there is renewed hope that Arsenal will be able to compete for all the available trophies this season.
The statistics speak for themselves. Arsenal has lost just one game from the last 21 matches in all competitions. They are currently riding a wave of momentum, as they have won 11 home games out of a possible 12 this season. Finally, they come into the quarter-final match after winning three consecutive matches, most recently recording a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Everton on the road, which means that Arsenal would finish on top of the league table this Christmas Day.
What really stands out about this squad is its balance. Despite there being injuries to Gabriel Magalhães, Kai Havertz, Ben White, Max Dowman, and Cristhian Mosquera, Mikel Arteta was still able to rotate his squad and play an almost full-strength XI due to the depth of Arsenal Football Club. This in-depth knowledge will certainly prove important during this type of competition. Last season when Arsenal played Palace at this same round, they won the match 3-2 through a hat-trick from Gabriel Jesus. A year later, and it looks like history could repeat itself.
Gabriel Jesus: Special at Christmastime
It is difficult to find any player that enjoys playing in cup competitions more than Gabriel Jesus. After recovering from a serious knee injury, the Brazilian forward has returned full of confidence and continues to show off his ability to score important goals. His form has impressed Mikel Arteta as a result. Jesus has made a habit of scoring goals against Palace. On four occasions in December 2024, he scored five goals against them, using his smart movement, work rate, and instinctive reaction as a striker to punish them. As Viktor Gyökeres will probably be used sparingly during this busy season, this semi-final could represent Jesus’ first start of the season and could be crucial for his continued success as well.
In this instance, players such as Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze, and Gabriel Martinelli bring to the table pace, creativity, and the ability to surprise an opponent. The front three of Crystal Palace is thus not only constructed to score goals but also designed to apply constant pressure on their opponents and utilize positional rotation to create chances for each of their teammates.
Crystal Palace: Conditions, Reactions, and Mentality
Crystal Palace finds themselves in a challenging position, one in which they need to rise above their situation and prove themselves. Oliver Glasner has led this club to multiple successful campaigns, both in the FA Cup and Community Shield, but the effects of prolonged competition in multiple competitions are clearly being felt. The physical strains on the players and the emotional strain felt in the dressing room are beginning to tell.
The club has gone three straight league games without a victory (with 9 goals conceded during that stretch), including a horrible 4-1 home loss to Leeds United, and other key players (i.e., Ismaila Sarr) have left due to AFCON participation while others (Daniel Muñoz, Cheick Doucouré, Daichi Kamada, and Chadi Riad) are currently injured or unavailable. The results are a lack of quality in their roster, as the team is attempting to play their 3rd consecutive high-intensity game in a 7-day span, which is certainly not a good situation for any club, particularly when facing one of the top-structured and energetic clubs in Europe.
While they may not be as offensive a threat compared to Arsenal, Crystal Palace can still create problems for the Gunners. They have scored in 11 of their past 12 away fixtures, while attackers such as Yeremy Pino and Justin DeVenny have the potential to expose defensive lapses by Arsenal and net goals.
Tactical Outlook: Control vs Chaos
In this match-up, expect to see Arsenal have greater possession, territory, and rhythm than Crystal Palace. Mikel Arteta's squad averages approximately 60% of possession throughout the league and presses aggressively in the final third. They average only 0.7 goals allowed per fixture over the course of their previous ten matches.
On the other side, look for Crystal Palace to defend deeper because of the lack of quality midfielders that would disrupt Arsenal's midfield passes. With all six players at the back, Palace will use the width of the pitch to penetrate and capitalize on Arsenal's defense.
The first goal could determine the game. Arsenal has allowed only two goals during the first half at home in their last 12 home matches, while Crystal Palace has not improved their ability to come from behind on the road.
Predicted Team News and Line-Ups
Arsenal Projected XI (4-3-3)
Kepa, Nichols, Saliba, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Norgaard, Merino, Eze, Madueke, Jesus, Martinelli
Crystal Palace Projected XI (3-4-2-1)
Benitez, Richards, Guehi, Canvot, Clyne, Lerma, Wharton, Sosa, Pino, Devenny, Uche
Both teams are likely to rotate their lineups; however, the depth of Arsenal's bench and players such as Gyökeres, Ødegaard, and Merino could give a significant edge to Arsenal in the latter part of the match.
Head-to-Head: A Lopsided Rivalry
Arsenal have had the better of Crystal Palace recently and have a massive advantage over them. The Gunners have won seven out of the last eight matches against Palace. Palace hasn't won at the Emirates Stadium since April 2019. Arsenal and Crystal Palace have had plenty of scoring opportunities during their last ten matches against each other, averaging 3.67 goals per match in this stretch. Palace will score, but they have continually had difficulty keeping Arsenal from scoring for 90 minutes.
Betting Overview and Notable Statistics
- Arsenal has won 11 out of the last 12 home matches.
- Palace has failed to win the last three matches.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in seven out of the last eight Palace matches.
- In nine of the last ten home matches, Arsenal scored first.
Popular Markets
- Arsenal to Win
- Both Teams to Score - Yes
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Gabriel Jesus Anytime Goal scorer
Match Winning Odds (via Stake.com)
Final Prediction: Arsenal to March On
Everything is leaning towards Arsenal winning the game. Arsenal is fresher than Crystal Palace, Arsenal has a deeper squad and is tactically superior to Crystal Palace, and Arsenal has the confidence of genuine title contenders. Crystal Palace, while they have an admirable spirit, seem to have reached their limit.
Crystal Palace might find the net at least once; their away scoring record cannot be discounted. However, Arsenal's control of the game, pressing style, and variety in attack will no doubt be too much for Crystal Palace.
Final Score Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Crystal Palace.
