Under the prime-time lights of Thursday Night Football, the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) in a great AFC North match-up. Confidence may be high for the Steelers after they put the Browns to stick last week 23–9, while the Bengals are on a four-game losing streak and maybe their last desperate chance to save the season.

For Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers’ resurgence has fully altered the team’s trajectory. The 40-year-old Hall of Famer threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns last week, deftly running the offense with precision and poise. Under Mike Tomlin, we saw an ominous defense again last week, recording 6 sacks with two forced turnovers. On the other side, Joe Flacco’s Bengals are still searching for rhythm. The veteran quarterback looked like he emerged again as his Super Bowl-winning self, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers in his first start. Now at home in Paycor Stadium, he has the biggest test to keep the Bengals' postseason hopes alive against one of their greatest rivalries. 

That -5.5 spread is a clear favorite for the Steelers, so the betting markets expect the Steelers to win. However, another line to be aware of is that Mike Tomlin’s teams are notorious road faders as a favorite, especially against a familiar divisional opponent. 

Trend Alert: Tomlin as a road favorite is 35–42–1 ATS, with the Steelers only covering twice all year so far. On the other hand, we quietly saw the Bengals cover +14.5 against the Packers last week, essentially indicating their value in betting once again.

Our Betting Lean: Bengals +5.5 The Bengals’ offense appeared to gain some traction with Flacco leading the way, while the Pittsburgh defense is flashier than effective (20th in defensive success rate). This should be a closer game than the line indicates.

Who could have predicted Joe Flacco would be a savior for the Bengals in 2025? Flacco is back. Flacco is thriving. And Flacco is trying to lead the Bengals in this desperate time slot on Thursday Night Football. His first game went smoothly and without mistakes, hitting 67% of his throws while establishing immediate rapport with Ja’Marr Chase, who caught 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.

This connection is the weapon to attack an aging Steelers secondary. While they still have some competent legs in their secondary, the Steelers have given up big performances to elite wideouts, and if Chase can find space to create, he can rout the entire Pittsburgh secondary. This game and this moment mean much more than a spread. This is Cincinnati’s only opportunity on national television, and the Bengals will have a frenzied, rabid crowd chant with emotions. For Zac Taylor's team, this is beyond a must-win game; it's a chance to instill some belief into the team, quell the crushing criticism, and inspire them to keep the playoff dream feasible.

This year in the NFL, few stories touch the interest level as much as the reclamation of Aaron Rodgers in black and gold. After joining the Steelers, he has been dynamited to an offense that had been dormant for years. His presence has transformed a young, talented roster of players into a real contender. And it's not just the offense causing a stir. The Steelers' defense has a very capable contemporary in T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and they continue to plague opposing quarterbacks. The six sacks against Cleveland last week certainly display that.

But the metrics tell a different story:

That means that while Pittsburgh has much to hang its hat on with splash plays and turnovers, they can be had against well-disciplined and efficient offenses. Similarly, if Cincinnati can keep Flacco clean and stay out of trouble, this can go down to the wire.

This rivalry has always epitomized the essence of the AFC North with physical, emotional, and often entirely unpredictable. Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 71-40, but the Bengals have been able to close that gap.

Don't forget about the 2020 game when the Bengals were 14.5-point underdogs and upset Pittsburgh 27–17 in a Thursday night game.

Although the public is mostly betting on Pittsburgh, the sharp money is betting on the Bengals +5.5, expecting a closer, gritty AFC North battle.

Ja'Marr Chase is one of the most lethal receivers in the league, and he will be up against veteran cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who, despite being a little slower than in his past, still has the ability to lock down elite talent. Flacco being able to throw the deep ball means this matchup may decide the outcome of the game; if Chase keeps a clean break on the route, it could open up a big score for the Bengals, and if Ramsey is effective, it could lead to a troublesome turnover. 

Both teams score over 44 points a game, so expect another score fest. The Bengals defense ranks 28th in EPA/play, and Pittsburgh is averaging about 24 points a game, thanks in part to Rogers being efficient.

Predicted Total: over 42.5 points.

Expect offensive fastbreaks where Rodgers is distributing the ball quickly, Flacco testing the deep coverage, and both kickers getting some work.

While Mike Tomlin is one of the most respected minds in foo and tball, Zac Taylor is feeling the heat. If the Bengals lose, that would make five lossesthat would likely put them out of the playoff race and raise serious issues about leadership and direction. This may be a make-or-break game for Taylor, and the players know it. Expect the Bengals to have a motivated and aggressive game plan to shock the team’s leading the division.

Pittsburgh is getting the edge with raw stats, but efficiency measures and system signals should lend confidence that this is a closer game than it appears. If there is an X-factor, it might be the energy of the Bengals playing at home.

Everything you look for in a trap game is present for Pittsburgh: short rest, a difficut road environment, and a rivalry game. Things are set up perfectly for an underdog to get it going.

According to Stake.com, the best online sportsbook out there, the betting odds stand at 3.00 (Cincinnati Bengals) and 1.42 (Pittsburgh Steelers).