The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park for the series finale on August 20, with both teams looking to build momentum in respective seasons. The Blue Jays arrive as division leaders looking to bounce back from recent defeat, while the Pirates look to build on their recent victory in game one of this series.
Match Details
Date: 20th August 2025
Time: 16:35 UTC
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Weather: 79°F, good conditions
Team Analysis
| Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 53 | .579 | 31-32 away | L2 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 53 | 73 | .421 | 35-29 home | W1 |
The numbers are a clear reflection of two teams moving in opposite directions this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Overview
Division-leading at 73-53, the Blue Jays have established themselves as serious players, even in recent times of trouble. Their .268 team batting average ranks among the league leaders, assisted by 148 home runs and a solid .338 on-base average. But their 4.25 team ERA reveals defensive vulnerabilities that Pittsburgh can exploit.
The Blue Jays' 31-32 road record has their traveling performance giving cause for concern, particularly since they are currently riding a two-game losing streak.
Pittsburgh Pirates Overview
The Pirates sit at 53-73, worst in the NL Central but playing better at home with a respectable 35-29 record. They are offensively struggling with a .232 team batting average and just 88 home runs, though their 4.02 team ERA indicates competitive pitching.
Recent momentum belongs to Pittsburgh after their 5-2 victory in the series-opening game, and they carry confidence into this finale.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | Strikeouts | Walks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | Toronto | 11-6 | 4.22 | 1.33 | 138.2 | 132 | 39 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh | 3-2 | 3.02 | 1.27 | 41.2 | 37 | 13 |
Chris Bassitt has veteran credentials with a record of 11-6, but his 4.22 ERA indicates some inconsistency. His 132 strikeouts in 138.2 innings are quality stuff, but 21 home runs allowed can be a problem area against Pittsburgh's power hitters.
Braxton Ashcraft provides the better statistical foundation in a sharp 3.02 ERA with good home run suppression—only one in 41.2 innings. His small sample size raises question marks, but early indicators are that there is real quality here.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): The everyday spark plugs who boasts a .298 batting average, 21 homers, and 69 RBIs. His day-to-day availability with hamstring tightness is something to observe.
Bo Bichette (SS): Contributing heavily with 82 RBIs, 16 HRs, and a .297 AVG, providing consistent production.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz (CF): Put on 7-day IL but potentially coming back, contributes power with 18 HRs on a poor .207 AVG. His availability could influence Pittsburgh's upside offensively.
Bryan Reynolds (RF): The consistent veteran with 62 RBIs and 13 HRs, providing consistent production in Pittsburgh's lineup.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS): Providing consistent contact with a .265 average and solid on-base skills.
Breakdown of the Recent Form
Toronto Blue Jays – Last Five Games
| Date | Result | Points | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/18 | Lost | 2-5 | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 8/17 | Lost | 4-10 | Texas Rangers |
| 8/16 | Won | 14-2 | Texas Rangers |
| 8/15 | Won | 6-5 | Texas Rangers |
| 8/14 | Won | 2-1 | Chicago Cubs |
Pittsburgh Pirates – Last Five Games
| Date | Result | Points | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/18 | Won | 5-2 | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 8/17 | Lost | 3-4 | Chicago Cubs |
| 8/16 | Lost | 1-3 | Chicago Cubs |
| 8/15 | Won | 3-2 | Chicago Cubs |
| 8/13 | Lost | 5-12 | Milwaukee Brewers |
Pittsburgh's competitive performances, especially their series-opening statement victory, stand in stark contrast to Toronto's recent inconsistency.
Current Betting Odds (Stake.com)
Winner Odds:
Blue Jays to win: 1.61
Pirates to win: 2.38
The odds are in Toronto's favor considering their recent performance, as they have a better overall record and strengths in offense.
Prediction & Betting Insights
This game presents good value considerations. Despite Toronto having stronger offense firepower and overall quality, the following are in Pittsburgh's favor:
Home field advantage: Pirates' solid 35-29 home record.
Pitching edge: Ashcraft's superior ERA and home run suppression.
Momentum: Recent series-opening victory and growing confidence.
Value: Altered odds that better reflect market bias toward Toronto's reputation.
The statistical disparity between these two clubs means Toronto should prevail, but Pittsburgh's home familiarity, superior starting pitching matchup, and momentum give real upset possibility.
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Final Thoughts
This series closer offers intriguing dynamics in play between a competitive Blue Jays team trying to find consistency and rebuilding Pirates squad showing grit. Ashcraft's pitching advantage and Pittsburgh home field advantage offer genuine upset potential, so this game is more than the records would suggest.
The Pirates provide value on the current odds, particularly with recent performance and statistical advantages on the mound. Toronto's deeper offense cannot be ignored, however, to set up what should be an interesting finish to this interleague series.
