Australia already has the Ashes urn securely in its possession (3-0), but it is a long way from being finished. The fourth Test match will be held at the famous Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) December 26-30, and the story of the fourth Four Test against Australia is going from being about winning an award for winning a series to being about establishing credibility and upward momentum and the future vision for both teams. England now has no choice but to turn into actionable performances all of those sporadic flashes of potential resistance, or they will be looking at another heavy defeat.
The MCG will become an arena for Australian and English cricketers to perform their very best performances on Boxing Day (also known as "Cricket Day"). Day one will likely see almost 90,000 cricket fans on hand for the much-anticipated opening ceremony of the fourth Test. The atmosphere and excitement are high, and history is being made with every delivery. Regardless of whether or not Australia is still a strong team to beat at this time, for them, it is about proving they have control of the series and have a good chance to beat England in the fifth Test (if there is to be one). For England, it is about stopping the downward slide and proving they can compete with Australia.
Match the Context & Numbers Key
- Match: Australia vs England Fourth Test
- Tournament: The Ashes 2025/26
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, East Melbourne
- Date: 26th December to 30 December 2025
- Start time: 11:30pm UTC
- Series: Australia leads 3-0
- Win Probability: Australia 62%, Draw 6%, England 32%
Australia has had success in their last four Boxing Day Tests, and history favors them as well. There have been 364 tests played between these teams, with Australia winning 155 and England winning 112, with 97 draws. At the MCG, this gap widens again, especially when the conditions are favorable for fast bowlers.
Pitch/Conditions the MCG Factors
The MCG has transformed from a ground where teams score huge numbers in their first innings to one that has a more balanced pitch. The past five first-inning scores have been 474, 318, 189, 185, and 195, averaging about 250, which shows that it is not easy to score runs here.
The MCG has seen pace bowlers dominating the statistics. In the last five tests at the MCG, pace bowlers took 124 wickets, while spinners only took 50 wickets. Conditions have been consistent on all five occasions with the ball swinging, seaming, and bouncing unpredictably, particularly under overcast skies. Given that showers are forecast for the first two days of the Test match, both captains could elect to bowl first looking to take advantage of the early movement generated before the pitch settles down.
A score of more than 300 runs by the team batting first is generally a key indicator of control. A first-innings score below 300 leaves the batting side under considerable pressure, particularly against an inconsistent attack from Australia.
Previewing Australia's team: Ruthless, Relentless, and Rebuilt
The Australian team has shown to be a complete package throughout this series, having demonstrated a clinical performance with their batting, a ruthless performance with their bowling, and the ability to be ice-cold during critical moments in matches. The depth of this Australian team is one of the reasons why they remain separated from their competitors, even in light of Pat Cummins's and Nathan Lyon's respective injuries.
The standout performer for Australia has been Travis Head, who has amassed 379 runs in the series to date at an average of 63.16. His aggressive, early-inning performances have created havoc amongst an inexperienced English team. The second-inning score of 170 made by Travis Head during the third Test match against the English team was evidence of his confidence and his capacity to score runs in this series. In addition, Usman Khawaja has returned to form, and Alex Carey has emerged as an unexpected yet necessary addition to the Australian run machine with a tally of 267 from four innings.
Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith form the core of the batting lineup. Labuschagne's role as anchor has enabled the players to express their aggressive approach to batting, while Smith's zen-like temperament has allowed him to take control of the team after battling vertigo, which is a condition where one feels unsteady and may lead to fainting. Cameron Green is under close watch; however, the potential of a player being an all-rounder is always enticing, and in Green's case this is still valid.
From the bowling perspective, Mitchell Starc has been a revelation. He currently leads the entire competition with a strike rate of 17.04 after taking 22 wickets in just seven matches. Scott Boland is a model of consistency, continuing to deliver good lines and lengths, and Todd Murphy is expected to step up and assume the role of front-line spinner for the team in place of Nathan Lyon. If Pat Cummins is unable to play, there are other options available in Brendan Doggett and Jhye Richardson, though the system is still strong with or without Cummins.
The Australian cricket team's predicted batting order: Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (captain), Usman Khawaja, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wicketkeeper), Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, and Scott Boland.
England's Tour: Looking for Stability Through the Turbulence
The English tour thus far has been marked by inconsistency and missed chances: instances of brilliance followed immediately by long stretches of failure and poor tactics. While Joe Root is leading the way in terms of runs scored with 219, Zak Crawley has stepped up to be a solid source of run support for Root from the top of the order.
Harry Brook and Ben Stokes have both achieved 160+ runs; however, neither was able to maintain their dominance for extended periods' England's new-ball vulnerability continues to be their most concerning issue; besides Joe Root and Zak Crawley, other batsmen have been unable to manage through long spells of sustained pressure, especially from quality fast bowlers in conducive conditions.
Ollie Pope is omitted from the squad, indicating a shift away from traditional approaches to selecting players, with Jacob Bethell now selected as an aggressive high-risk option. Time will tell whether this decision was wise in Australia. Jamie Smith has shown promise with the bat, but many questions remain around England's overall balance.
England's bowling also raises concerns; Brydon Carse is the top ticket-taker for England with 14 wickets, while injuries to Jofra Archer have decimated England's bowling attack. Gus Atkinson will return to the squad with Josh Tongue, but England's ability to build and execute a cohesive bowling attack is missing. Will Jacks is expected to take on the role of lead spinner again, demonstrating that England only has two specialist spin options.
England Predicted XI: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue.
Outlook and Key Conflict of Interest
The toss can be critical. The weather forecast is for overcast skies, and bowling first will give any bowler the advantage. Australia has the pace bowlers who are more prepared for handling the movement that will come from this type of condition. In addition, the top order of England has to make it through the most dangerous phase of the game in order to have a chance at being competitive.
Among the key conflicts of interest are Travis Head vs. the new-ball attack of England, Joe Root vs. the swing of Starc, and how the middle order of England will compete against consistent pressure from the short ball. In order for England to be able to challenge, they will need to bat deep and have a good start in getting the top order of Australia out early which is something they have not been able to do consistently.
Betting Odds for the Match via Stake.com
Prediction: Australia Will Tighten Their Grip
Although England has put up some fight at times (in particular in the Third Test), Australia has maintained complete control of the momentum. Australia also appears to be better in all aspects, even when not at full strength. When you factor in the playing conditions, fan support from the MCG, and current form, it becomes clear that all signs point to Australia.
In summary, we can see Australia winning, thus extending their series lead to 4–0. Boxing Day should be exciting and intense, with plenty of moments of resistance; however, unless England finds another gear altogether, it is likely that Australia will remain in charge during the remainder of this Test Series under the Melbourne sun.
