The winter schedule of Serie A typically strips away the superficialities of football, exposing the central themes of survival, spirit, and belief. Genoa and Atalanta's match on Sunday Night Football will reveal all these underlying influences through the detailed lens of the historical rifts in their respective paths to restoration which is under new leadership. The two rival sides are going in different directions: while one side is fighting to escape relegation, the other is looking to regain a place among Europe’s elite. In the run-up to the match, Atalanta appears to have the upper hand. However, the match will likely be much closer than the odds indicate.

Key Match Details

• Competition: Serie A
• Date: 21st December 2025
• Time: 19:45 UTC
• Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
• Win Predictions: Genoa 26%, Tie 29%, Atalanta 45%

Genoa's Transformation Because of a Crisis

One of the most dramatic changes in the narrative of Serie A in 2021-22 happened with Genoa. The season began by turning into a total disaster; the team finished the first six matches without a single victory, which subsequently led to Patrick Vieira’s departure and left the club floating aimlessly because of their poor performance. While Daniele De Rossi's hiring was met with some cautious optimism initially, the reality is after several weeks it has become evidence of how transformational he has been since taking over.

Genoa came into this round sitting just outside the Relegation Zone, but you could see from their past performances that they seemed to be moving up as opposed to down. They’ve gotten points consistently since the appointment of De Rossi, increased their courage playing in matches, and importantly, started creating chances again. Even though Genoa was defeated 2-1 by Inter at home this past weekend, the performance showed the improvements that have happened. Genoa was not the same team we saw in the first half of the season; they were competing with the best teams in Serie A. Although it was painful to lose the match, it was evident from the performance that the belief is starting to grow again within both the players and the fans.

The statistics tell a compelling story: Genoa scored 12 goals in six league matches played under De Rossi, whereas the team averaged fewer than 0.5 goals per game for the first part of the season. Genoa are being aggressive, moving vertically and increasingly looking to take risks whenever they have possession of the ball.

Tactical Identity: Controlled Chaos

De Rossi's 3-5-2 formation has allowed for greater central compactness while promoting wing-back play that creates more opportunities for the wingbacks to enter the attack and create a spread defense that Genoa had been lacking in the past by allowing them to push higher up the field. Players such as Brooke Norton-Cuffy and Aaron Martin Caricol have the opportunity to push forward more often, creating space on the wing and stretching the defense of the opposing team.

Ruslan Malinovskyi's role has increased while operating in between both lines, allowing him to use his experience and passing ability from a distance, which will be vital against teams that play a deeper defensive scheme and transition quickly through their midfield. In the front line, Genoa has a contrasting combination of forwards in Colombo and Vitinha. Colombo is a physical reference point, whereas Vitinha is more of an instinctual and fluid forward.

Defensively, Genoa is not perfect yet, as they give up opportunities to the opposing team when the wing-backs get caught too high on the pitch, but the overall defensive shape and structure of the team have improved. Most importantly, the players seem to know really believe in their game plan.

Atalanta: New Life in Bergamo

Atalanta’s journey this season is strikingly similar to that of Genoa, but while both teams underwent a change of management and consequently experienced a rejuvenation in the way they play football, they were facing different levels of challenge at the time of the change. Under Juric's management, Atalanta had a downturn in results, but with the appointment of Palladino—a disciple of Gasperini—Atalanta regained its once-flourishing attacking DNA and became one of the top disruptors in Serie A.

Recent results for Atalanta have been very positive, with five wins from seven games. Most notably, the wins against Chelsea in the Champions League and Cagliari in Serie A have shown the ability of this team to compete at the highest level in European football. Scamacca's double last Saturday was not only worth 3 points but has also helped return the confidence, sharpness, and clinical nature of the attacking third back to where it should be. Palladino hasn't reinvented Atalanta; he has refined them. The pressing game is now much more controlled, the build-up is less frantic, and the attacking rotations are clearer. Scamacca, De Ketelaere, and Pasalic make up an attacking unit with excellent fluidity, which, when in sync, can put defenses under tremendous pressure.

There is still a question mark over Atalanta's away form. They have lost their previous three Serie A matches, which to a certain extent takes away some of their status as the favorite for this trip.

Squad Selection and Rotations

Both teams will be impacted by absentees with respect to how they shape their tactical line-ups.

Genoa have lost several key names from their squad; Junior Messias, Hugo Cuenca, and Benjamin Siegrist are unavailable, with Leo Ostigard a doubt to start the game. The number of players missing is a test of a team's squad depth, particularly when transitioning defensively.

Atalanta's list of missing players has also created an equal level of disruption in their lineup. Ademola Lookman and Odilon Kossounou are both absent due to being away with their respective national teams, while Djimsiti, Bellanova, Bakker, and Sulemana are absent from the club due to injuries. However, the Bergamaschi have sufficient quality within their squad to form a competitive starting XI.

Genoa (3-5-2)

Leali, Marcandalli, Oota, Vasquez, Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Thorsby, Caricol, Vitinha, Colombo

Atalanta (3-4-2-1)

Carnesecchi, Scalvini, Kolasinac, Ahanor, Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi, De Ketelaere, Pasalic, Scamacca

Head-to-Head: Avalanche Effect

All history favors Atalanta! Bergamaschi have taken all their last five matches against Genoa, with a much-praised victory in the Coppa Italia this month with a rather brutal 4-0 win. Genoa has not been able to beat Atalanta in Serie A since 2018, and these games have often been marked by Genoa’s defensive breakdowns.

However, there is more to history than statistics. The recent defeat against Genoa was under very unusual circumstances with early red cards were issued to Genoa, and a number of players were rotated in the lineup on that day. The match this week will offer a very different atmosphere, with Genoa playing in its own hometown and enjoying a resurgence of confidence, which will likely impact its performance against Atalanta differently than it would have if they had played at home.

Dynamics of the Match: Why Goals Are Inevitable

When considering all the factors that are currently present between these two teams—in this case, header, etc. and it appears very likely that this matchup will turn into a rather open contest. Genoa has scored in all but one of its last seven matches (including all competitions) and has conceded in all but one of those matches as well. Atalanta's last eight (across all competitions) have had over 2.5 goals scored in each match.

Both systems of play tactically offer greater quantities of risk than their adversaries. For Genoa, the highest offensive point comes from their wingbacks, and for Atalanta, aggressive middle-level players are used to exploiting the half-space. Consequently, we will experience many transition opportunities as well as intense duels and defense that will most likely be less than perfect. The stadium experience in Luigi Ferraris, arguably one of the most challenging stadiums to play in, makes it even harder to predict a possible winner.

Winning Odds for the Match (via Stake.com)

Current Prediction: When Momentum Meets Firepower

In terms of the number of players with greater skill level and a better recent record, Atalanta holds a significant edge; however, Genoa comes into the match with the advantage of having the momentum. It feels more like a collision of two different roads rather than a mismatch.

• Final Prediction: Genoa 2–2 Atalanta

In the end, a tie will show that both clubs have made great strides in their offensive games and still lack in their defensive play. Genoa continues their climb, Atalanta continues with their momentum, and Serie A continues to provide games of teams that have experienced revivals on many different roadmaps.