Sunday’s Big Weekend for both teams (Lyon and Brest)

As we reach the halfway point of the Ligue 1 season, when there is plenty at stake in terms of playoffs, Lyon vs. Brest is more than just an opportunity for another match on the schedule. The Parisian clubs face each other on a night when the heat is on both clubs with regard to momentum, executing their plan, and fulfilling the expectations of what both teams want to accomplish in the playoffs and beyond this season.

Lyon's manager Paulo Fonseca has lent the Lyon players the sense that they can achieve greatness, having shown no mercy to their opponents since his arrival. Lyon is working hard and playing well. The club/program is putting itself in a position to be successful in Europe. Brest, on the other hand, is without a great deal of European history; however, they have made great strides towards having a successful club program and the opportunity to play in the European playoffs. Lyon and Brest have both made good progress over the course of this season, and that should make for a great atmosphere at the Groupama Stadium on a Sunday night.

Key Match Details

• Competition: Ligue 1 Round 18
• Date: 18th January 2026
• Time: 07:45 PM (UTC)
• Location: Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu
• Winning Probabilities: Lyon 58% | Draw 23% | Brest 19%

Recent Changes to Lyon's Tactics and Momentum

Lyon has come into this match with five consecutive wins across all competitions. The latest of these came in the form of a difficult 2-1 Coupe de France victory over Lille, where Lyon showed their ability to remain resilient as well as having the ability to score when needed. Lyon had just 40% possession of the ball, but in key moments Lyon was able to punish Lille for mistakes by scoring twice, once by Afonso Moreira and the other time by Endrick, a young star who has shown that he is becoming a valuable member of the Lyon squad for the long haul.

Lyon's defensive efforts have also been quietly effective. In their last six matches, Lyon has given up just four goals and, as a result, has developed a back line that is becoming increasingly coordinated. While Lyon's defensive organization will again be put to the test in this match, the statistics indicate that Lyon is becoming more comfortable in being able to control games with proper structure versus overwhelming their opponents with individual skill.

Playing in Familiar Surroundings at Groupama Stadium

Lyon's home stadium, Groupama Stadium, has become a fortress for Lyon in recent weeks. In addition to winning their last two home games, Lyon has won six of their eight home games this season in Ligue 1. When you combine the intimidating atmosphere when teams enter Groupama Stadium with Lyon's constantly aggressive pressing and vertical passing, many teams have become intimidated early in games against Lyon at Groupama Stadium.

Lyon's recent record against Brest shows that they have not lost to them for two consecutive league matches, creating a psychological edge heading into this game.

Lyon's Player of the Match: Corentin Tolisso

Corentin Tolisso will not be able to play in this match because of injury; however, his presence will still be felt as Lyon's captain and as the "pulse" of the Lyon midfield this season. His leadership qualities, positional awareness, and ability to control tempo have been an integral part of Lyon's resurgence this season. Corentin has scored three league goals from 17 matches played and has helped Lyon progress through the season. Lyon's depth will be tested by his absence, but this should not be seen as a chink in the Lyon armor. As the Lyon squad has progressed through this season, it has become a well-balanced, highly tactical, and cohesive unit and is no longer solely reliant on one player.

Brest: Steady Confidence, Steadily Believing in Themselves

Current Form and Goalscoring Reliance

Brest travels to Lyon with confidence after defeating Auxerre 2-0 in their last match, which demonstrates how much they have improved as a team. Goals from Ludovic Ajorque and Joris Chotard represent a team that knows how to manage the "important" moments of a match rather than just dominate possession.

Brest's last six matches have produced ten goals, with Brest scoring in each game within the last six matches. Despite remaining defensively vulnerable, giving up seven goals in six matches, Brest continues to remain true to their competitive nature and give themselves a fighting chance in the Ligue 1 race.

Concerns About Away Struggles Continue

Despite recent success, Brest's away form is still one of the bigger concerns. They have only two victories on the road from eight league games and lost five. Now facing a Lyon squad with more than two goals per match at home, Brest has to play near perfectly defensively to stay competitive.

Their compact shape in a 4-4-2 formation and direct attacking style allows them to do what they do best: absorb pressure and strike quickly.

Rivalry on Paper Appears to Be Evenly Matched

Overall, the past meetings between these two teams since February 2022 have been very balanced.

• Wins by Lyon: 2
• Wins by Brest: 2
• Draws: 2

There have been 14 total goals scored in their past meetings, with an average of 2.33 total goals per match. The last match between these teams in the league ended in a scoreless draw. The draw was more about avoiding mistakes than creating.

Brest is 0-for-4 in their last four matches at Lyon, and all indications suggest that Groupama Stadium is still a very hard place for the Les Pirates to visit.

The Tactical Vibes and Numbers

Details on Lyon's Team

Lyon coach Paulo Fonseca has several personnel missing:

• Corentin Tolisso—suspended,
• Ernest Nuamah - right knee injury,
• Malick Fofana—right ankle sprain.

In spite of these player losses, Lyon expects to set up in a 4-3-1-2 formation; this setup will provide Lyon with a heavily center-minded midfield and narrow, compact attacking combinations.

Lyon's Expected XI:

Grief, Maitland-Niles, Mata, Kluivert, Tagliafico; Abner, Morton, Mangala; Merah; Sulc and Moreira,

Pavel Sulc will be called upon to help lead the attack with this new role, and with his newfound ability to quickly adapt to Ligue 1 competition, Pavel has quickly become one of Lyon's most successful players this season.

Details on Brest's Team

Brest is also missing some key players:

• Mama Baldé (Injured)
• Kenny Lala (Knee)

Coach Eric Roy will continue with the same style of play that has been successful for him and for Brest and will focus on maintaining a disciplined 4-4-2 style of play while trying to take advantage of aerial and set play opportunities.

Brest's Expected XI:

Coudert; Zogbe, Chardonnet, Coulibaly, Guindo; Del Castillo, Chotard, Magnetti, and Lascary; Mboup, Ajorque.

Ludovic Ajorque will continue to be Brest's offensive weapon and will continue to provide a strong presence in tight games.

Tactical Battle: Control vs Compact Resistance

There are two different philosophies that will be at play in this tactical battle between Lyon and Brest. Lyon will be looking to dominate the territory, press high up the pitch, and create overloads in central areas using Sulc and Merah, while Brest will attempt to remain compact, disrupt Lyon's rhythm, and take advantage of set-piece opportunities, something they have been very good at this season.

If Lyon can score early in the match, it will create a wide-open type of game. However, if Brest can continue to hold off Lyon in the second half of the match, this will create increased tension and potential counter-attacking opportunities.

Overall Prediction: Lyon's Current Momentum Will Be Too Much to Overcome

While the overall form of Brest should not be disregarded, the current trajectory of Lyon is far too good to ignore. The way Lyon finds a balance between defensive and attacking aspects, especially when playing at home, should provide them with enough of an advantage over Brest. Brest may create chances throughout the match but over 90 minutes it seems unlikely that they will be able to hold pressure against this current Lyon side.

• Final Outcome: Lyon 3 – 1 Brest

Wagering Considerations

• Outcome: Lyon Victory
• Match Total Goals: Over 2.5
• Both Teams to Score: Yes
• Final Score Prediction: 3-1
• Anytime Goal Scorer: Endrick

Current Winning Odds (via Stake.com)

Summary of the Match

When you look at this matchup under January lights at Groupama Stadium, it feels like part of Lyon's resurgence to being a top club in France. They've started playing with confidence again, their tactical organization has been improving, and they have many young players who are playing well for the team. Brest will not give up without a fight, as always and however, Lyon appears to have the momentum going into this match.