Finland vs Georgia: FIBA Semi Quarter Finals
Introduction
The EuroBasket 2025 quarterfinals are here, and we have one of the most exciting underdog matchups of the tournament. Finland vs Georgia! Both Finland and Georgia stunned the basketball world with massive wins in the Round of 16, with Finland upsetting Serbia and Georgia defeating France. Now these two underdogs collide for a chance to advance to the semifinals!
Fans and bettors are excited for this matchup, with Finland’s star Lauri Markkanen leading his team as they face Georgia's frontcourt trio Tornike Shengelia, Goga Bitadze, and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Whether you are a fan of the teams or just the tournament, either way we have already seen history made. Expect this game to be full of grit, intensity, and a tonne of different betting opportunities.
Game Information
- Tournament: FIBA EuroBasket 2025 - Quarterfinals
- Game: Finland vs Georgia
- Date: Wednesday, September 10th, 2025
- Venue: Arena Riga, Latvia
Road to the Quarterfinals
Finland
Finland came into EuroBasket 2025 with low expectations but has developed into one of the surprise teams of the tournament.
Group Stage: Came 3rd in Group B with wins against Sweden, Montenegro, and Great Britain.
Round of 16: Finished with a shocking 92-86 victory over Serbia – one of the biggest upsets in EuroBasket history!
Finland's performance against Serbia displayed what they are capable of doing well: offensive rebounding! The team pulled in 20 offensive rebounds, leading to 23 points. This effort, combined with Markkanen's 29 points, is how Finland pulled off the upset.
Georgia
Georgia came in as an underdog as well but is now in the spotlight, having battled their way into this position.
Group Stage: Came 4th in Group C with a win against Spain and another against Cyprus.
Round of 16: Defeated traditional power France 80-70, led by Shengelia and Baldwin's combined 48 points.
During the victory against France, Georgia demonstrated incredible poise, shooting more than 55% from three-point range (10-18), while their defence also disrupted a talented French team filled with NBA players.
Head-to-Head Record
Finland and Georgia have played each other on multiple occasions in recent years:
EuroBasket 2025 Qualifiers: Georgia won both games (90–83 in Tampere, 81–64 in Tbilisi).
EuroBasket History: Finland beat Georgia in 2011.
Overall Trend: Georgia has a slight historical edge, as they have won 3 of the last 5 games.
This gives Georgia confidence, but given Finland's recent form, this matchup is much more evenly balanced than past results would suggest.
Key Players
Finland: Lauri Markkanen
Stats: 26 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3 SPG
Impact: Finland's offensive continued to revolve around him. Against Serbia, he converted only 29 PTS on 39% shooting and 8 rebounds, and he referenced how he felt like he could never get into a rhythm on the day. He gets to the foul line and rebounds at a high level, making him Finland's X-factor.
Finland's X-Factors
Elias Valtonen: Clutch scorer in Q4
Miro Little: Plays all roles in rebounding, assists and steals.
Mikael Jantunen: Secondary scorer and reliable rebounder.
Georgia: Tornike Shengelia
Stats vs France: 24 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists.
Impact: As a veteran leader, he has a lot of strengths and has the inside game to score. There was a lot of heart and inspiring effort expected after he underwent a medical procedure.
Georgia X-Factors
Kamar Baldwin: Explosive scorer can take over a game (24 vs France).
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Defensive anchor and good rebounder.
Goga Bitadze: Rim protector and inside presence but will need to bounce back after a poor showing vs France.
Tactical breakdown
Finland Game Plan
Strengths: Offensive rebounding, perimeter shooting, and Markkanen’s star power.
Weakness: Overreliance on Markkanen, and defence can be exposed against physical bigs.
Keys to win:
Continue to dominate offensive rebounding.
Finland's secondary scorers (Jantunen, Little, and Valtonen) need to step up.
Speed up the tempo to neutralise Georgia's physical size and defence.
Georgia Game Plan
Strengths: Physical frontcourt, veteran leadership, 3-point shooting (when hitting).
Weakness: Inconsistent rebounding and sometimes relying on individual bursts of scoring.
Keys to win
Physical double-teams on Markkanen to contain him.
Match the effort Finland puts into offensive rebounding.
Breaking up the scoring between Shengelia, Baldwin, and Bitadze.
Betting Insights and Chances
Spread & Total
Finland is a slight favourite after beating Serbia to build momentum.
Over the last several games, the total is projected to be around 163.5. From a trend standpoint, I would consider the Under, given both teams emphasise defence.
Player Promos
Lauri Markkanen Over 39.5 PRA (points + rebounds + assists): strong value due to workload.
Tornike Shengelia 20+ Points: A primary scoring threat for Georgia.
Total Rebounds over 10.5 (Mamukelashvili): Likely to play almost all minutes due to Finland's rebounding machine.
Best Bet
Georgia + Spread has value in what should be a close game.
Secondary option: Markkanen PRA Over.
Prediction & Projected Score
This game is a real 50/50 matchup between two teams with plenty of emotion on their side. We have Finland with an excellent pace and offensive rebounding going up against Georgia's physical nature and veteran know-how. I would imagine there will be plenty of swings in momentum and big plays in the final quarter.
Predicted Winner: Finland (narrow margin)
Predicted Score: Finland 88 – Georgia 81
Betting Pick: Finland to win, but Georgia to cover the spread.
Final Summary
The Finland vs Georgia QF should not be viewed as just another basketball game but more as a clash of two underdogs that have already beaten the odds. Finland's star-driven labour attack and rebounding prowess against Georgia's toughness and vet savvy.
Germany vs Slovenia: FIBA Semi Quarter Finals
Introduction
The EuroBasket 2025 Quarterfinals feature one of the most awaited matchups of the tournament: Germany vs Slovenia. On one hand, you have Germany, the world champions (which is objectively the most lopsided statement in all of sport), that emphasise a formula built upon balance, depth, and discipline. On the other hand, there is Slovenia, where all that team organisation has been replaced by the unbelievable ascending stardom of Luka Dončić, who has put up some of the most remarkable scoring numbers of any tournament in history, sometimes winning games almost single-handedly.
This game is about more than just basketball: it will serve as a test between depth and greatness, with teams clearly backing contrasting ideologies. The stage has been set for those betting on the game or fans simply curious about the matchup.
Germany's Record in the Quarterfinals
Germany came into EuroBasket 2025 as one of the "standout" teams, if not the standout team, and up to this point they have done nothing to damage that image. Germany finished first place in their group with a perfect record of 5-0 and recently defeated Portugal 85-58 in the Round of 16.
Believing the score shows the game was a blowout would be a false assumption, as the score was not indicative of how Germany played overall. The game was tight for three quarters, as Portugal was still within reach, down only one point, trailing 52-51 to begin the last quarter. However, Germany began to swell on their already undoubtedly winning DNA, finishing the game on a 33-7 run to relegate Portugal to a crushing defeat. Germany's late sustained success was attributed to Maodo Lo making huge shots down the stretch, Dennis Schröder being his normal competent self, and Franz Wagner establishing himself as one of the best players in the EuroBasket tournament.
Germany's depth and balance are impressive. While Slovenia seems to thrive on Dončić's singular brilliance, Germany can count on a host of contributors any given night. The playmaking of Schroder, versatility of Wagner, and defensive presence of Bonga give Germany arguably the most complete squad in the tournament.
Key Stats (Germany):
Points per game: 102.3 (leading scorer in the tournament)
Steals per game: 10.3
Average winning margin: +32 points
Most scoring: Dennis Schröder (16 PPG), Franz Wagner (16 PPG)
Slovenia's Path to the Quarterfinals
Slovenia had a clunky group stage, only finishing third in their group, but showed up when it mattered most, eliminating Italy 84-77 in the Round of 16.
The hero was, of course, Luka Dončić, who scored 42 points (including 30 in the first half), 10 rebounds, and 3 steals. He did suffer a slight injury early in the game but afterwards insisted he would be ready for the quarterfinal clash.
The biggest concern for Slovenia is its depth. Other than Dončić, only Klemen Prepelic (11 points) scored double digits against Italy. Other players, like Edo Muric and Alen Omic, just chipped in defensively and with rebounding, as Slovenia's offensive system is nearly entirely based around Dončić.
Key Stats (Slovenia):
Luka Dončić tournament averages: 34 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.2 assists
Team scoring average of 92.2 points per game (2nd behind Germany)
Weakness: Defensive rebounding and lack of depth on the bench
Luka Dončić: The X-Factor
Few players in world basketball can dominate an arena in the same way Luka Dončić dominates his surroundings. At only 26 years of age, Luka is not only the face of Slovenian basketball – he represents one of the superstars of the game on a world stage.
His numbers at EuroBasket are astounding:
34 PPG – the leading scorer of the tournament
8.3 RPG & 7.2 APG – elite, all-around production
90% - free throw shooting. Making teams pay at the line when they foul him.
Luka now faces his toughest challenge on the defensive end against Germany. The quickness of Schroder, the length of Wagner and the rim protection of Theis will all take their turns trying to slow him. But in tournament and game situations, Luka has always shown he gravitates to, and even thrives in, defensive schemes which attempt to physically wear him down.
Bold Predictions for Luka vs Germany:
At least 40 points performance – With not only Slovenia's offence, indeed their entire game, running almost exclusively through him, another massive scoring performance would not be a surprise.
It is overly exaggerated and predictable of him to go for 15 assists – if Germany successfully traps him, expect him to get on the ball to execute passes to open shooters off of the end of the trap.
Probably less likely, but altogether not impossible, that he beats/profits from a clutch, game-winning shot – Dončić has carved out a career of sorts dependent on execution in late-game situations. So don't find it totally surprising to see him hit a "dagger" late in a close game.
Head-to-Head: Germany vs Slovenia
Historically, these teams are very evenly matched. When they have met in the past, they have played 8 times, and they are even, each with 4 wins. But their last meeting was very lopsided, as Germany thumped Slovenia 100–71 in the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
H2H Overview:
Total games: 8
Germany wins: 4
Slovenia wins: 4
Last match: Germany 100–71 Slovenia (2023 World Cup)
Key Matchups
Dennis Schröder vs Luka Dončić
The key will be how much Schröder can pressure Luka defensively while running Germany’s offence.
Franz Wagner vs. Klemen Prepelic
Germany’s most versatile scorer vs Slovenia’s best shooter (and perimeter shooter). Depending on who wins this match-up, expect a wave of momentum.
The Battle Inside: Daniel Theis vs Alen Omic
Germany will have a size advantage inside, and Slovenia has little rim protection and rebounding.
Tactical Analysis
Germany
Slow the game down and force Luka into half-court sets.
Utilise their depth to physically punish Slovenia.
How they dominate the glass and push transition.
Slovenia
Play fast, and allow Dončić to be creative to generate transition offence.
Space the floor and punish Germany if they over-help Luka.
Take care of the ball, and fight for second-chance points.
Betting Tips & Predictions
Over/Under
Both teams are in the top two offences; expect a fast-paced scoring battle.
Pick: Over 176.5 points
Spread
Germany's depth gives them the nod; Dončić means Slovenia is in every game.
Pick: Germany -5.5
Tips
Germany is the favourite because of their balance and depth; Slovenia is the star team.
Pick: Germany to Win
Props to Watch
Luka Dončić Over 34.5 Points
Franz Wagner Over 16.5 Points
Dennis Schröder Over 6.5 Assists
Final Analysis & Prediction
This quarterfinal has the classic feel. Germany have cohesion, depth and balanced scoring to put them in the best position to advance. They have a number of players that can take over, and their defensive structure is designed to handle star-powered teams.
Slovenia, meanwhile, depends nearly completely on Luka Dončić. While Luka is good enough to keep Slovenia competitive on his own, ultimately basketball is a team sport, and Germany's depth of talent will win out.
Projected Final Score:
Germany 95 - Slovenia 88
Betting Pick:
Germany to Win
Over 176.5 Points