Introduction
On Friday, August 1st, 2025, at historic Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles will go head-to-head for the first game of a three-game interleague series. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:20 PM (UTC). Chicago continues to battle for the top position in the NL Central and will welcome the struggling Orioles, who have faced inconsistency throughout the season to date in the AL East, to Wrigley Field. The matchup will have an interesting pitching duel on the mound with Cade Horton (Cubs) against Trevor Rogers (Orioles), along with a variety of solid offensive support on both teams.
Cubs vs. Orioles Betting Preview
Cubs vs. Orioles Game Prediction
Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Orioles 3
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win probabilities: Cubs 58%, Orioles 42%
Betting Insights
Chicago Cubs Betting Insights
Cubs have won 50 of 74 games (67.6%) as favorites so far this year.
Cubs are 32-11 as favorites of at least -148
The Cubs form is 3-4 in their last seven games.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Insights
The Orioles have been underdogs in 53 games this year and won 24 games (45.3%).
The Orioles are 6-11 as underdogs with odds.
Total Betting Trends
The Cubs and their opponents hit the over in 57 of 108 games.
Orioles games have hit the over in 48 of their 109 games.
Team Analysis
Chicago Cubs Team Overview
The Cubs have one of the strongest offences in MLB, ranking first in total runs scored with 570 runs (5.3 runs per game) and third in batting average (.255). The Cubs are also in the top three in home runs (158 homers this season). The Cubs have an elite strikeout rate, as they only have a strikeout rate of 7.8 strikeouts per game, which is the fourth fewest in MLB.
Pitching Profile: The Cubs pitching profile has a 3.96 ERA (16th in MLB), a respectable number that has benefited from strong performances out of the bullpen. However, the starters are having problems getting strikeouts, sitting 28th in MLB (7.5 strikeouts per nine innings).
Key Players:
Pete Crow-Armstrong has 27 home runs and 78 RBIs, which leads the Cubs, while ranking sixth in MLB in home runs.
Seiya Suzuki adds power in the middle of the order and plays a big part in helping Seiya Suzuki with his 81 RBIs, which leads the team.
Kyle Tucker is a consistent option, hitting. 276 with 18 home runs and 61 RBIs.
Nico Hoerner is one of the most consistent players on the team with a .291 batting average.
Projected Starter: Cade Horton
Record: 4-3
ERA: 3.67
Strikeouts: 50 in 68.2 innings
Cade Horton has pitched well and limited the opponents to zero earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Baltimore Orioles Team Report
The Orioles have been up and down this season, sitting 14th in the MLB in runs scored (482) and 10th in home runs (136). They have a team batting average of .245, which puts them at 17th. Their starting pitchers have been a major issue.
Pitching Outlook: Baltimore's staff has a 4.89 ERA (27th in MLB), and injuries have hurt them. The bullpen has been an issue for them; in ERA and blown saves, they rank near the bottom.
Key Players:
Gunnar Henderson has a .285 batting average and a team-leading 43 RBIs.
Jackson Holliday broke out as the power bat with 14 homers and 43 RBIs.
Adley Rutschman (.231 AVG, 8 HR) and Jordan Westburg (.272 AVG, 12 HR) have a lot of potential to do well for the lineup.
Projected Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers
Record: 4-1
ERA: 1.49
WHIP: .79
Rogers has had a great performance, going five starts making less than two earned runs.
Pitching Showdown: Horton vs. Rogers
The opening game of this series should feature two exciting arms. Cade Horton has been solid for Chicago, but Trevor Rogers has a 1.49 ERA and a super low WHIP, which makes him tough to beat. That said, the Cubs have a deeper bullpen and a superior offense than the Marlins, so while Rogers can be tough, the Cubs hitting and bullpen types could neutralize him.
Cubs Lineup vs. Orioles Pitching
The Cubs lineup features tones of power and players with high on-base potential. Given the aerial firepower represented by Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki, it will be hard for them not to dent a relatively shaky Baltimore bullpen.
Orioles Lineup vs. Cubs Pitching
The Orioles very heavily rely on Henderson and Holliday for their run production. If Horton keeps the ball in the yard, the Cubs have the advantage.
Betting Trends & Props
Why Should the Cubs Cover?
The Cubs have won 7 of their last 8-day games vs. AL East teams with losing records.
The Cubs have led after 3 innings and 5 innings in the last 6 matchups against the Orioles.
The Cubs have covered the run line in 8 of their last 9-day games at Wrigley following a road win.
Why Could the Orioles Upset?
The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games and have gone OVER in 6/10 of their most recent games.
Trevor Rogers has had 5 strikeouts or more in his last 4 starts against NL opponents.
Player Prop Highlights
Chicago Cubs Player Props:
Nico Hoerner: Hits in 11-day game appearances against losing teams.
Ian Happ: HR in 3 of last 4 home games against AL East teams.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: over 1.5 total bases makes sense given he's on a hot recent stretch of .368.
Baltimore Orioles Player Props:
Trevor Rogers: over 4.5 strikeouts.
Gary Sanchez: HR in 4 of last 5 road games against NL Central teams.
Colton Cowser: Hits in 13 consecutive appearances against winning NL teams.
Injury Reports
Chicago Cubs Injuries:
Jameson Taillon (Calf) – 15 Day IL
Justin Steele (Elbow) – 60 Day IL
Javier Assad (Oblique) – 60 Day IL
Miguel Amaya (Oblique) – 60 Day IL
Eli Morgan (Elbow) – 60 Day IL
Ian Happ – Day-to-Day (Leg)
Baltimore Orioles Injuries:
Multiple key pitchers and hitters out, including Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) and Kyle Bradish (elbow). Affecting depth and production.
Final Prediction
- Score Prediction: Cubs 5 – Orioles 3
- Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
- Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Orioles 42%
In sum, the Cubs' offensive firepower and bullpen reliability far outweigh the starting pitcher advantage that the Orioles hold. I expect the Cubs to be in control of this game, especially late, and cover the -1.5 total line.
Conclusion
The Chicago Cubs are the rightful favorites in this interleague matchup, with one of the top offenses in the MLB and a bullpen that is significantly better than Baltimore's. Trevor Rogers is undoubtedly capable of stopping Chicago's bats early, but the Cubs' offence is deep enough and historically good enough that they should be able to take advantage of Baltimore's struggles out of the bullpen, making them the safe pick here.
Our Pick: Cubs -1.5 | Total: Over 7.5
