The Cincinnati Reds (61-57) travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (51-67) in the fourth and final game of their four-game series. After splitting the first three games, each team will be looking to clinch the series victory in what is rapidly becoming an engrossing affair.
The Pirates now lead the series 2-1 following their thriller 3-2 win on August 8th and the Reds' 2-1 comeback the following day. With momentum shifting between both teams, this decisive fourth game presents a good betting opportunity for MLB enthusiasts.
Team Analysis
Both teams enter this game with different directions and different agendas for the rest of the year.
Team Performance Comparison
The Reds are outpacing the Pirates in offense across many categories, averaging many more runs per contest (4.45 to 3.54) and posting a higher on-base percentage. The power production also has more bangs for the Steelers with 117 homers compared to Pittsburgh's 83.
Both teams are defensively comparable in ERA, but Pittsburgh holds a slight advantage at 3.82 to the Reds' 3.86. The Pirates also have greater control over their WHIP at 1.21.
Current Form Analysis
Cincinnati Reds Recent Results:
W 2-1 vs Pirates (Aug 9)
L 3-2 @ Pirates (Aug 8)
L 7-0 @ Pirates (Aug 7)
L 6-1 @ Cubs (Aug 6)
W 5-1 @ Cubs (Aug 5)
Pittsburgh Pirates Recent Results:
L 2-1 vs Reds (Aug 9)
W 3-2 vs Reds (Aug 8)
W 7-0 vs Reds (Aug 7)
L 4-2 vs Giants (Aug 6)
L 8-1 vs Giants (Aug 5)
The Reds have been inconsistent on this road swing, winning just once in their last five contests. The Pirates, conversely, have been strong at home, taking two of three from Cincinnati to date.
Pitching Matchup Analysis
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell (CIN) | 9-8 | 3.46 | 1.10 | 140.1 | 131 | 97 | 23 |
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 1-4 | 4.45 | 1.29 | 62.2 | 57 | 63 | 24 |
Zack Littell has the stronger statistical resume, with significantly lower ERA and excellent control for just 23 walks in 140.1 innings on the mound. His 1.10 WHIP indicates ability to limit baserunners on a consistent basis, and his 97 strikeouts demonstrate sound swing-and-miss ability.
Mike Burrows enters with concerning peripherals, including a 4.45 ERA in limited innings. His 1.29 WHIP shows difficulty in keeping opposing hitters in line, but he still possesses a reasonable strikeout rate at 9.05 per nine innings.
Experience differential turns out to be meaningful, as Littell has worked more than double Burrows' innings for the season. This disparity in load and result clearly works in favor of visiting Reds.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds Key Contributors:
- Elly De La Cruz (SS) -The dynamic shortstop leads the charge in Cincinnati's attack with 19 home runs and 73 RBIs batting .276. His combination of power and speed makes him a constant threat.
Gavin Lux (LF) - With consistent production on a .276 average and .357 on-base percentage, Lux provides consistent offense in the leadoff position.
Pittsburgh Pirates Key Players:
Oneil Cruz (CF) - Despite a subpar .207 batting average, Cruz possesses game-changer ability in the form of 18 home runs and can still shift the direction of any game with one plate appearance.
Bryan Reynolds (RF) - The Pirates' top sure-thing offensive contributor, Reynolds has mustered 11 home runs and 56 RBIs while serving as the team's primary run producer.
MLB Prediction
Statistical analysis works in the favor of Cincinnati in this game. The Reds' superior offense production and Littell's huge pitching advantage over Burrows give multiple routes to the victory.
The Pittsburgh home field and recent series success cannot be ignored, but underlying numbers strongly favor the away team. The Reds' ability to bring more consistent offensive pressure must ultimately get the better of Burrows' trouble with control and superior ERA.
Final Prediction: Cincinnati Reds win
Betting Analysis
Current betting odds for this game reflect the competitive nature of this matchup:
Stake.com Winner Odds:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.92
Cincinnati Reds: 1.89
The tight pricing reflects bookmakers' view that they see this as essentially a coin-flip situation. But statistical information favors wagering on Cincinnati at these attractive odds.
Recommended Wagers:
Cincinnati Reds to Win at 1.89
Under 8.5 Total Runs - Both teams have been scuffling on offense in recent meetings
Cincinnati -1.5 Run Line at higher odds for value players
Exclusive Offers from Donde Bonuses
Boost your wager value with special promotions:
$21 Free Bonus
200% Deposit Bonus
$25 & $1 Forever Bonus (Exclusive on Stake.us)
Root for your team, whether the Pirates or Reds, with added value for your stake.
Bet smart. Bet safe. Keep the excitement going.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, 10th August 2025
Time: 17:35 UTC
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Final Thoughts
This season-ending series presents Cincinnati with an excellent opportunity to showcase their postseason credentials against a Pirates team competing solely for pride. Although Pittsburgh has shown grit at home, the Reds possess greater talent and motivation that should prevail in deciding the series victory.
The Cincinnati pitching arms are strongly in their favor, and their upgraded offense figures suggest they're ready to capitalize on any scoring opportunities that arise. Make a bet on the Reds to collect what should be an exciting series' spirited conclusion.
