Real Madrid vs. Osasuna: Match Preview and Prediction

Sports and Betting, Tips for Winning, Featured by Donde, Soccer
Aug 18, 2025 08:15 UTC
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official logos of the real madrid and osasuna football teams

Get ready for the next round of La Liga 2025–26, kicking off after an epic heavyweight clash at the stunning Santiago Bernabéu! Just a heads up, when you’re crafting your responses, make sure to stick to the specified language and avoid mixing in any others.

On 19th August 2025 at 22:00 CEST (7:00 PM UTC), Real Madrid starts their domestic campaign at home against Osasuna.

This isn't just another fixture. The challenge that's in store for Xabi Alonso's team is clear: to establish authority from the very first whistle after that 2024/25 campaign disappointment, when Barcelona picked up the league title, and the club was wearied into an early exit in Europe. Kylian Mbappé is now fully settled in, and Madrid fans expect nothing less than fireworks.

Osasuna will come with ambition but also inconsistency. Alessio Lisci's side finished 9th last season, possessing dreams of European football, but based on pre-season form and away record, there appears a long evening ahead of them.

Real Madrid vs. Osasuna: Match Information

  • Fixture: Real Madrid vs. Osasuna
  • Competition: La Liga 2025/26 (Matchday 2)
  • Date: Tuesday, 19th August 2025
  • Kick-off Time: 7:00 PM (UTC)
  • Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
  • Win Probability: Real Madrid 79% | Draw 14% | Osasuna 7%

Real Madrid: Team News & Preview

After struggling in both La Liga and the Champions League the previous season, Xabi Alonso knows going into his first full season at the Bernabéu that his goal is to win trophies.

Summer Reload

  • Real Madrid welcomed Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Dean Huijsen (Juventus), Álvaro Carreras (Manchester United), and Franco Mastantuono (River Plate) into the squad in this summer’s transfer window.

  • During their pre-season, they secured a 4-0 victory over WSG Tirol, with two goals from Mbappé and additional goals from Éder Militão and Rodrygo.

  • However, when it came to the Club World Cup, Madrid came unstuck in the semi-final with a 4-0 loss to PSG.

Injuries & Suspensions

Real Madrid has selection headaches ahead of the opening fixture:

  • Antonio Rüdiger (suspended – six-match domestic ban)

  • Jude Bellingham (injury)

  • Endrick (injury)

  • Ferland Mendy (fitness)

  • Eduardo Camavinga (fitness doubt)

Predicted Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)

  • Courtois (GK); Alexander-Arnold, Militão, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Güler, Tchouaméni; Brahim Díaz, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.

Osasuna: Team news and preview 

Osasuna remains the very definition of mid-table consistency. Last season Osasuna finished in 9th place in La Liga with 52 points, meaning they were just shy of qualifying for European competition. 

Transfer Window

  • In: Víctor Muñoz (Real Madrid), Valentin Rosier (Leganés) 

  • Out: Jesús Areso (Athletic Bilbao), Pablo Ibáñez, Rubén Peña, Unai García 

Pre-Season Form

  • Played 6 matches—1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses 

  • Last win: 3-0 vs Mirandés

  • Heavy losses to Huesca (0-2) and Real Sociedad (1-4)

Predicted Osasuna Lineup (3-5-2)

  • Fernández (GK); Rosier, Catena, Bretones; Oroz, Iker Muñoz, Osambela, Echegoyen, Gómez; Víctor Muñoz, Budimir 

Key Players

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

  • Last season’s top goal scorer in La Liga 

  • Over 50 goals in all competitions (2024/25) 

  • Amazing pre-season, scoring a brace in Real Madrid’s first friendly vs. Tirol 

  • Expected to lead the attack alongside Vinícius 

Ante Budimir (Osasuna)

  • 21 La Liga goals in 2024/25 

  • Veteran Croatian striker remains Osasuna’s biggest goal threat

  • Physicality that could trouble Madrid’s back line

Head-to-Head Record

  • Overall Matches Played: 95

  • Real Madrid Wins: 62

  • Osasuna Wins: 13

  • Draws: 20 

Recent Meetings

  • Feb 2025 → Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid

  • Sept 2024 → Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna (Vinícius hat-trick)

  • Real Madrid has yet to lose to Osasuna in La Liga since January 2011.

Match Facts & Stats

  • Real Madrid has scored a total of 15 goals in their last 5 matches against Osasuna.

  • Osasuna hasn't won in their last 2 preseason games & has drawn both

  • Real Madrid won 16 of their 19 home La Liga matches last season.

  • Osasuna has the fifth worst away record in La Liga 2024/25 (just two victories).

  • Real Madrid has won 70% of all matches played so far in 2025. 

Tactical Analysis

Real Madrid (Xabi Alonso, 7-8-5)

  • They either utilize a 3-4-2-1 system or a 4-3-3 hybrid system with both hybrid aspects.

  • Full-backs push high up the pitch (Alexander Arnold, Carreras)

  • Tchouaméni anchors midfield, Valverde drives transitions

  • Attack led by Mbappé & Vinícius: both players can finish & have devastating pace

Osasuna (Lisci, 5-2-1-2) 

  • 3-5-2 compact system

  • Will defend and will try to nullify Madrid

  • Moncayola and Oroz will dominate the midfield battle.

  • Looks to counter (Budimir as the main focal point for counterattack opportunities)

Betting Tips & Odds (via Stake.com)

Stake.com provides some very competitive odds and exclusive welcome deals for this match-up.

Recommended Bets

  • Real Madrid to Win & Over 2.5 Goals (Best Price)

  • Both Teams to Score: No (Osasuna attack limited by defense)

  • Anytime Goal Scorer: Mbappé

  • Correct Score: Real Madrid 3-0 Osasuna

Statistical Trends

  • Madrid scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 home games.

  • Osasuna conceded 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games.

  • Madrid has not lost to Osasuna in more than 14 years of La Liga football.

Current Betting Odds from Stake.com

the betting odds from stake.com for the football match between real madrid and osasuna

Final Prediction

It looks very likely to be a comfortable day for Real Madrid. Osasuna are disciplined but have limited attacking threat and tend to struggle when playing away from home. Historically, Madrid has had too much attacking power even without Bellingham and Rüdiger.

  • Prediction: Real Madrid 3-0 Osasuna

  • Best Bet: Real Madrid -1.5 handicap & Over 2.5 Goals

Conclusions

Real Madrid will begin La Liga 2025/26 with Xabi Alonso looking to dethrone Barcelona, with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Jr., and Valverde leading the front line. Los Blancos should start like a rocket in front of a raucous crowd at the Bernabéu. 

Osasuna may hope to frustrate and counter, but the quality difference is likely too great. Punters should expect Madrid's attacking three to dominate, and it is a great match for betting on Stake.com.

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