Week 17 in the NFL is usually void of anything neutral; by this time of season, teams are either trying to prove they can continue the "first season" into January or are starting to understand the long, cold winter they are entering. This Sunday evening slate features two divisional matchups that are very different in each team's goals, but together it showcases what late-season football really represents. Cleveland and Pittsburgh will resume their rivalry with playoff implications for one team and emotional resistance for the opposing side. As the players prepare for this game, the same cannot be said for the teams playing in East Rutherford, NJ, where the New England Patriots and the New York Jets will meet, but this meeting will not be based upon a true rivalry but on an organizational disparity of efficiency from the Patriots and indecision on the part of the Jets.
Match 01: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
The rivalry between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers may not be the most intense in the NFL; however, it has a personal connection for the players and coaches involved. The rivalry goes back many years and spans across the three teams of Ohio and Pennsylvania. It is not just a divisional rivalry; it has been built over many years of geographic proximity, intense competition, and hard-hitting football. Although when the two teams meet, it is usually a case of records meaning nothing; all logic is thrown out of the window, and both teams are highly motivated to win.
As the final week of the season approaches, the stakes continue to rise for both teams. The Steelers enter with a 9-6 record, having won three straight games, and are on the verge of clinching the AFC North. The Browns are eliminated from playoff contention at 3-12, but this does not change the anticipation surrounding this matchup. For the Browns, this game means pride, progress, and the opportunity to ruin their rival's chance of making the playoffs.
Late in December, the weather in Cleveland can be very uncomfortable. Between the cold temperatures, heavy snow on the field, and the presence of an extremely hostile crowd, the players will have to work hard to survive on all levels.
Psychological Influences on Week 17's Outcome
The outcome of Week 17 will be established not just by each team's playbook but also through their psychological approach to the game. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the outcome will significantly impact the team's ability to solidify their playoff position over the next two weeks. If the Steelers win on Sunday, they will have a playoff position secured and can use momentum to propel them through Week 18. If the Steelers lose, they will be back at square one with their playoffs, which will create a challenging situation in Week 17.
The Cleveland Browns will have a different motivation heading into Week 17, but the lack of motivation does not mean the psychological influence is diminished. The disappointment of last week's loss to the Buffalo Bills has motivated the Browns to regain confidence in their abilities. Cleveland competed, defended, and stayed in a game against one of the top teams in the NFL. The performance last week, when it came during a very disappointing season for the Browns, reinforces the psychological benefits of performing well.
The Resurgence of Pittsburgh: Balance, Experience and Control
Pittsburgh's recent performances are indicative of a team developing into the right team at the right time. During the game against Detroit in Week 16, the Steelers produced 481 offensive yards, the most total offensive yards produced thus far in the season. Aaron Rodgers was calm, cool, and collected under center throughout the game with 266 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions thrown and exactly the way playoff football should be played.
The run game has been just as valuable as the passing game. The combination of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell gives the backfield both explosiveness and patience as they attack opposing defenses; therefore, when an offense has the success that Pittsburgh had rushing for 230 yards, it accomplishes several things. It gives the Steelers a chance to keep the chains moving, protect Aaron Rodgers, set the tempo of the game, and help keep their defense fresh.
An Offense without DK Metcalf
With DK Metcalf's suspension, the Pittsburgh offense does not have its best vertical threat. His absence condenses the field and alters the rhythm of the offense for Rodgers. With the inability to throw deep, defensive coordinators will be able to cover the intermediate routes, challenge timing, and load the box. This changes the Pittsburgh offense from one that has opportunities to take advantage of the defense to one that must earn their drives. Therefore, third-down efficiency becomes crucial, and red-zone execution becomes essential.
December football will still allow a methodical approach to win football games. However, in an environment such as Cleveland's home stadium and against a defense as disruptive as Cleveland's, there will be very little margin for error.
Steelers Defense Is Getting Better Just in Time
As the Steelers' offense struggles to find consistency, the good news is that the Steelers' defense is developing into a confident, cohesive unit. Early in the season, the Steelers were susceptible to strong rushing teams; however, in the last three weeks, they have been able to address that issue. Against teams that will be competing to get into the playoffs, Pittsburgh has done a great job of minimizing big runs and has improved their gap discipline.
The improvements made to the Steelers' defense will be vital to the success of the Steelers against the Browns. The Browns excel in maximizing their opportunities to create turnovers and in using field position and momentum from their defense to win games. Also, the degree to which Pittsburgh can generate third-down-and-long situations will affect the amount of leeway that Shedeur Sanders is given at quarterback.
Cleveland's Identity: Defense is King
Cleveland's season has had its share of ups and downs, but they have established themselves as a legitimate defensive team, especially at home. At Huntington Bank Field, the Browns allow only 19.8 points per game, which places them among the best defenses in the league at home.
Myles Garrett is the centerpiece of that identity. Garrett is one sack away from tying the single-season record; however, he has other things on his mind as he prepares to face the Steelers. Garrett is responsible for most of the offensive protection schemes, using his speed and athleticism to quickly press on quarterbacks. He also uses the energy from the crowd at home to feed his performance, which very few defensive players can do.
The biggest test for the Steelers' offensive line will be to win the battle in the trenches. If they fail to win the battle up front, it won't matter how well they perform throughout the rest of the game.
Defensive Challenges for Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns have a much more difficult challenge than previously expected. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders continues to develop, showing a lot of progress and continuing to show poise under less-than-ideal conditions. The loss of leading rusher, Quinshon Judkins, however, takes away Cleveland's balance in their offense. With an inconsistent rushing attack behind him, Sanders is likely going to have to be relied on to throw the ball more than would be ideal.
This creates risk for Sanders. Pittsburgh, an established team, plays off pressure, disguise, and late-game adjustments. Nevertheless, Sanders has quietly surpassed the 17.5 completion mark in four of his five starts, indicating that he could help keep Cleveland competitive if the game is close: through volume-based efficiency. The offensive philosophy of Cleveland will be characterized by short throws, keeping the drive-in control, and disciplined execution.
Expert Predictions
National analysts overwhelmingly lean toward Pittsburgh, but often with hesitancy. ESPN's expert panel heavily favors the Steelers for the game. Sports Illustrated’s staff has unanimously picked Pittsburgh. NFL.com thoughts are similar in that they reference the Steelers' overall improvement on the defensive side of the ball and the limited potential of Cleveland's offensive attack.
The analysts also look at the margins and have mixed opinions on whether Cleveland will cover the spread. A few analysts have stated that with Metcalf out, Pittsburgh has had below-average success on the road when covering the spread, while others believe Pittsburgh's running game could take advantage of Cleveland's recent struggles against the run.
Tactical Keys to the AFC North Match-Up
The game will ultimately be won in the trenches. In the event Pittsburgh establishes their running game early, Cleveland’s defense becomes reactive, and therefore, the impact of Garrett will be minimized. If Garrett is able to penetrate the pocket early, the comfort level of Rodgers will disappear.
The key for Cleveland will be the element of patience—time of possession, field position, and the avoidance of turnovers must be in alignment. Cleveland cannot afford to give Pittsburgh short fields to score from or provide them with any mistakes that create a momentum change.
Prediction: An Expected Outcome
Pittsburgh is not built to run up the score on opponents; they are built to wear teams down over the course of a game. Cleveland’s defense will keep this game close; Cleveland will be boosted by the momentum provided by their home-field environment and the presence of Garrett. Ultimately, Pittsburgh will have the experience and balance, and their defense is improving and that will ultimately provide the advantage to Pittsburgh.
- Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 22 - Cleveland Browns 16
Match 02: New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Cleveland may be chaotic; however, New York is clear. As of Week 17, the New England Patriots are 12-3, perfect on the road, and firmly secured in the top tier of the AFC playoffs. Every win has an added benefit; it will determine either division winners, seedings, or home-field advantage.
Why Are Huge Spreads Justifiable in This Case?
Spreads of ten points or greater in the NFL are cause for caution. The Jets have been such a bad team that it is now known that almost any time that they play against a team that is half decent, they will lose, and they will lose by at least twenty-three points. They have also played "poorly" on both sides of the ball.
Brady Cook is a quarterback who works hard but has not had a lot of success. His EPA metrics and IR against the league-average offensive rating of 100 all show that their offense is in a "surviving" mode. There are no high-end offensive threats in their arsenal. With New England being one of the elite teams in the league, that difference becomes even more pronounced.
Drake Maye Remains Calm and Efficient
Drake Maye has performed well while not being overly aggressive. He has thrown the ball 70% of the time while constantly moving the ball downfield; his ability to balance both of these things is his most impressive trait. He reads defenses well, throws the ball so that it arrives on time, and allows New England to sustain its offense.
While the Patriots do have a couple of significant injuries to some key receivers, the way their offense is designed still allows them to be very effective. Hunter Henry, who isn't typically viewed as an ultra-productive weapon for New England due to his size at tight end, has become the primary focal point of that offense by both running high-percentage routes (which effectively ‘chew up the clock), converting 3rd downs, and finishing off drives.
Why the Game Will Lean Toward Control
The scoring ability for the Patriots should give them some advantage in this game; however, the matchup will likely not be an explosive one but rather methodical. The Patriots prefer to execute long drives, control the field position and manage the game clock, especially as the playoffs are approaching.
The Jets have not been able to produce the offensive efficiency necessary to maintain a pace in this match-up and most drivers for the Jets have stalled out prior to getting close enough to score and resulted in a lot of punts instead of putting pressure on the defense. Absent any short field opportunities or defensive touchdowns for the Jets, the scoring should remain relatively constant and subdued in this game.
Betting Logic and Game Script
The Patriots opened as 10+ point favorites for a reason; they have been much more efficient than New York on both sides of the ball. However, both divisional familiarity and late-year conservatism may provide an avenue for a backdoor cover. The total for betting leans to the under. New England can score without speeding things up. The Jets have problems establishing drives. Field goals are the way the under remain in place—field goals instead of touchdowns and punting instead of possessions.
- Predicted Final Score: Patriots 24, Jets 10
Two Games and One Lesson
Week 17 removes all teams’ delusions. In Cleveland, rivalry football is all about toughness, patience, and surviving the pressure of the playoff atmosphere. In New Jersey, structure and discipline and efficiency make the difference between contender and rebuilding.
