A January Night with European Consequences

Mid-January is rarely a routine time in the Bundesliga, and Stuttgart on Tuesday night will be no exception. VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt clash under the floodlights of the MHP Arena based on Momentum, Ambition, and margin. Fifth-place hosts 7th place, separated by three points; both have realistic ambitions of qualifying for Europe now rather than a distant dream. Stuttgart is on a confidence high after demolishing Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 in their last match, creating a loud message throughout Germany. Conversely, Frankfurt has opened 2026 with drama and determination after playing Borussia Dortmund to a chaotic and catchy 3-3 draw. This match captured everything beautiful and unfortunate about the Eagles this season.

This is not just matchday 17, this is a pivotal match, as it could lead a team down the road to Champions League play or have one club fighting from behind.

Table Pressure and Tactical Landscape

Currently, through 16 rounds, Stuttgart is placed 5th overall, with 29 points, tied with Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig, but due to goal difference, Stuttgart is overdue for the top 4. Frankfurt is 7th, sitting on 26 points. With a win over Stuttgart, Frankfurt would equal Stuttgart, thereby cementing Frankfurt’s position in the European competitions.

Stuttgart and Frankfurt are both strong attacking teams, and both have defensive weaknesses. The outcome of this match will help determine where each team stands as a measure of progress. Midway through the Bundesliga season, these types of matches tend to stick in one’s mind throughout the season.

Stuttgart: Confidence Soared Under Sebastian Hoeneß

Stuttgart under Hoeneß is currently one of the most confident teams in the Bundesliga, with a 4-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen being a reflection of that confidence. There was no element of luck in their win against Bayer Leverkusen, although this was an intelligent and composed performance, and this match is viewed as the most important through the first half of the Bundesliga season. The pace and verticality of the Stuttgart players, along with the efficiency of their finishing, provided an indication of a well-coached, confident team. Jamie Leweling’s two-goal performance, Deniz Undav’s clinical movements, and Maximilian Mittelstädt’s composed penalty-kick goal pointed out the confidence levels within Stuttgart.

Stuttgart has shown great dominance at home this season in all competitions, having played 10 games at the MHP Arena, winning 8, drawing 1, and losing just 1—the large 5–0 loss against Bayern Munich, which now seems a long way away, as in the Bundesliga they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 3 games. Under Coach Hoeneß, the Stuttgart team plays a style of soccer that presses aggressively while maintaining their formation. With Atakan Karazor and Angelo Stiller holding down the center of midfield, Stuttgart's wide players (Leweling and Chris Führich) are able to run at defenders freely and attack the space.

The Player to Watch in Red Is Deniz Undav

With 9 Bundesliga goals already this season, Deniz Undav has established himself as the focal point for Stuttgart's attacking maturity. He possesses an uncanny instinct for finishing the ball. He also shows great understanding of how to link up with teammates. While playing against Leverkusen, his ability to pull defenders out of place opened up spaces for his teammates in the offense.

Against a Frankfurt team that has given up 33 goals in league play, the ability for Undav to find a way to get into the box at the right time will likely play a pivotal role. When Stuttgart generates pressure on the opposing defense and creates scoring opportunities, the play typically begins and ends with Undav.

Frankfurt: Instability and Power

Frankfurt is one of the most erratic teams in the Bundesliga. Their manager Dino Toppmöller's squad can show brilliance one minute and then be left exposed the next as they alternate between these states. Their 3-3 draw with Dortmund demonstrated the best example of this. The game had three separate comebacks from both teams and a constant and determined offensive effort from Frankfurt, and at the end of the normal time, Frankfurt held the lead but could not secure victory.

From an offensive standpoint, Frankfurt has scored a goal in nine out of their last ten Bundesliga matches; however, they are at the bottom of the table for goals allowed, placing them among the bottom teams in the Bundesliga with respect to goals against and goal differential. The Eagles are rarely able to "close out" games; instead, they thrive on the notion of the unpredictable occurring and depend on their attacking prowess to score enough goals to win.

Frankfurt have experienced mixed results while playing away: they have only earned one point in their last two league matches on the road. Even though the past favors Frankfurt when they play Stuttgart, the way Frankfurt has played recently does not seem to favor them when they play against teams that press and move the ball quickly from front to back and bottom to top.

New Players, New Vibes

In the last few weeks, we've seen some positive impacts from Frankfurt's winter signings. Younes Ebnoutalib made his league debut in this win over Dortmund with a big goal, while Arnaud Kalimuendo's added movement and link-up play have brought some fresh energy to the final third. Mahmoud Dahoud's late goal against his former club only adds to Frankfurt's growing midfield threat from deep.

Selection issues are complicated by numerous injuries. Jonathan Burkardt, Michy Batshuayi, and Jean-Matthieu Baoya remain injured and out of action, while Arthur Theate and Ellyes Skhiri will have to pass a late fitness test. Against a high-pressing Stuttgart side, the ability to utilize their squad depth could prove crucial for Frankfurt's hopes to win.

Head-to-Head: Goals, Drama & Frankfurt Has the Edge

The historical outcome of this fixture does appear to favor the away team. Frankfurt has won four out of their last five visits to MHP Arena, but in each of those four wins, they scored at least three goals. Of the last ten encounters between the two sides in the Bundesliga, Stuttgart has beaten Frankfurt only twice.

More significantly, this matchup has a history of lots of goals. In the last seven matchups in Stuttgart, every game produced over 2.5 goals, and in five of those matches, both teams scored. As a result, it is unusual for this matchup to be defined by defensive play.

Referee and Discipline/Match Tempo

Matthias Jöllenbeck is the appointed referee for this fixture. So far in his last 10 matches, he has produced an average of 3.6 yellow cards per match. Historically, Stuttgart v Frankfurt has not been a highly charged encounter in terms of temperament; however, the game has been fiercely competitive. Looking back at the two teams in their last few encounters, it has become apparent that the level of discipline will be likely tested again. Midfield duels where players change direction quickly and create opportunities for a quick attack led to many fouls stopping dangerous counterattacks.

Tactical Battle: Chaos vs Control

If Stuttgart are able to dominate possession and keep Frankfurt pinned in their own half for a prolonged period of time, they will have an opportunity to expose weaknesses in Frankfurt's defense with their structured possession play. Stuttgart's width and ability to make late runs are likely to be a serious threat to a back three that has lost its compactness.

Frankfurt thrives in chaotic games. If they survive the initial pressure of Stuttgart, they stand a good chance of turning the game into a transitional match and using their speed and creativity between the lines to unpick Stuttgart's defensive line. Uzun's movement and Ansgar Knauff's direct play will be a massive part of that plan.

Prediction: Fine Lines; Known Path

All signs suggest goals. Stuttgart has an average of 1.8 goals each match; meanwhile, Frankfurt's defense allows many goals but produces consistent scores. In addition, the records show increasingly close games between these two clubs. Although anything can happen due to the unpredictable nature of Frankfurt, Stuttgart's form, home advantage, and style of play put them in a good position to win this matchup.

• Two Teams Predicts VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
• Predominant Trends: More than 2 goals | Both Teams Score

Current Winning Odds (via Stake.com)

Expect an up-tempo style of play, frequent transitions, and lots of emotion—this is what Bundesliga football should look like. On a January evening in Stuttgart, the aspirations of success in Europe will be put on trial; only one team will end this match closer to achieving their dream of playing Europa League or Champions League football.