Will the Thunder Win in San Antonio?

The Frost Bank Center will be hopping late Tuesday night as two Western Conference powers meet in what feels like a bigger-than-usual regular-season game. The Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and leaders in their conference, travel to Texas to take on a San Antonio Spurs team that has an enormous amount of momentum, confidence, and advantage playing at home.

On paper, Oklahoma City seems to be the safer pick. However, this game is on the edge of balance between playoff intensity (at center) against a team with championship poise (in Oklahoma City) against a youthful, hungry team (in San Antonio). This is going to be an emotional matchup and will provide a much-needed December Classic.

Key Match Details

• Competition: NBA—2025/2026 Regular Season
• Date/Time: December 24th, 2025, at 1:30 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio, Texas)

Form and Context

San Antonio has had an impressive run, winning their last six games in a row and recording seven wins in the last eight contests. The team's last game against the Washington Wizards (124-113) showcased the team's growing balance. De’Aaron Fox led the way with 27 points and 5 threes, Stephon Castle ran the offense well with 18 points and 11 assists, and Luke Kornet controlled the paint with 20 points and 12 boards.

On the other hand, Oklahoma City had a rare setback on Friday when they lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-107. The Thunder were led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who dropped 35 points, but they started slowing offensively, which cost them when they tried to make a comeback. Nevertheless, Oklahoma City is still considered one of the best teams in the league, with a record of 25-3 overall and a road record of 12-2.

San Antonio Spurs: Constructing a Contender Step-by-Step

With 120.1 points scored per game on 48.3% shooting, San Antonio has statistically one of the best offenses in the NBA. Additionally, San Antonio has an impressive rebounding average of 46.3 rebounds per game (ranked 4th). They are now able to adapt their pace of play based on who they are playing against.

Victor Wembanyama's return from his calf injury has added more complexity to the Spurs' offense (as well as defense), and in spite of starting on the bench and gradually working his way back to full rotation, Wembanyama's presence will significantly impact the Spurs' ability to protect the rim and rebound. Additionally, Wembanyama's presence may help to create more offensive spacing due to his gravitational pull on the basketball. If Wembanyama is able to remain healthy and play significant minutes versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Spurs will have a huge advantage given they are dealing with significant frontcourt injuries.

Defensively, the Spurs still have an uphill battle to climb. The Spurs give up 113.7 points per game, which puts them in line to struggle against teams who like to run up and down the floor. If San Antonio can keep the pace of the game slow and maintain control of the possessions, they become tons more difficult to beat and especially at home (where they are 10-2 this year).

OKC Thunder: Championship-Level Team on the Road

OKC will feature a balanced attack with three players that are capable of high point totals, including shooting 122.5 points a game and having the third-best shooting percentage from three-point range. They also provide tough perimeter defense and hold opponents to an NBA-best 106.4 points. SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be an MVP candidate and is averaging over 32 points per game with high shooting efficiency. He is able to dictate the pace of play, take advantage of opponent mismatches, and finish games, making him OKC's greatest asset.

The Thunder differ from other teams in their ability to convert defensive turnovers into offensive opportunities. They lead the NBA in turnovers created and translate those turnovers into transition baskets. With a Spurs team that has struggled with their ball security at times, this could be a difference maker in the outcome of the game.

Injuries to key players make things a little more complex. The Thunder currently have four players: Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins, all of whom could have an impact on the game and the team. The injuries will impact rim protection, play rotation flexibility, and workload on a time-constrained travel schedule and it will be the second game in the last 24-hour period.

Tactical Analysis: The Key Areas to Win the Game

The outcome of this contest will be determined in three fundamental categories:

Turnovers and Transition

The Oklahoma City homeless are unable to play effectively until the pace picks up. They must minimize their number of live-ball turnovers to ensure that there are fewer opportunities for unwanted Thunder runs and fast breaks.

Interior Control

If Victor Wembanyama performs well, the San Antonio Spurs will be at an advantage on the inside. Due to injuries within the team, the Oklahoma City frontcourt will struggle to defend shots at the basket as well as protect the boards from being rebounded by the opposing team.

First Quarter Momentum

The Thunder have had early dominance against the Spurs over the last decade, winning the first quarter in 9 of the last 10 matchups. Additionally, Oklahoma City has had great success in getting off to a quick start on the road.

Head-to-Head Overview

• There have been 59 all-time matchups.
• Thunder has won 32 of those.
• The Spurs have won 27 of those.
• In the last 5 meetings, Oklahoma City has won 3.
• The last time they met, San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City 111–109.

Although the Spurs have improved, the Thunder have had a consistent advantage over the Spurs for the last two seasons.

Betting Outlook, Insight on the Market

• Betting Lead-in: OKC -295 vs Spurs +235
• OKC Spread: -6.5; Total: 234.5

 When considering the market's current position in the OKC vs. Spurs matchup, we see that the market favors OKC, but the situation needs to be placed in proper context. OKC will enter this game fatigued, missing several key players from their rotation, and will be playing against one of the best teams in the NBA at home. Because of this, the betting outlook for OKC narrows both the spread and the blend of possibilities considerably.

Looking at it from a betting perspective:

• The safest outcome is to pick OKC to win.
• The best value on the spread would be to take the Spurs +6.5, which has more value based on the situational context.
• The total bet of under 234.5 is also a great bet based on the trends of recent play, where four out of San Antonio's last 5 games have finished under.

Current Winning Odds from Stake.com

Final Prediction: Thunder will survive and Spurs will battle

This matchup has all the elements of a playoff battle: physical, tactical, and highly charged with emotion. San Antonio will not be an easy team to defeat, and they possess both the confidence and rebounding advantage at home, thus allowing them to remain competitive and keep the game close until late in the fourth quarter. But OKC possesses championship experience, defensive structure, and shot creation late in games that will give them the edge in a late-game scenario.

• Final Score prediction: OKC 118 - SAS 114
• Best Bet: OKC to Win and Cover (-4.5)

The Spurs are emerging as a strong team, but currently, OKC remains the benchmark, and even on the road and during times of pressure, the champions generally find a way to win.