The co-main event for UFC 321 is shaping up to provide fireworks, as Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern meet in a rematch for the vacant women’s strawweight title during this fan-favorite fight matchup. Fans and sports bettors will be watching this grappling affair, where strategy, precision, and momentum come together inside the Octagon.

• Date: October 25th, 2025

• Time: 06:00 PM (UTC)

• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE

The rematch comes with an interesting reflection of each of their histories, along with their performances:

• Virna Jandiroba: (UFC betting underdog)

• Mackenzie Dern: (UFC betting favorite)

The odds provide insight into what's to come. While Dern is somewhat favored following her last win in December 2020, Jandiroba is riding a five-fight winning streak and has improved her techniques, making this bout look closer than an old score. Betting markets may also provide attractive prop bets such as Dern by submission (+350) or Jandiroba by decision (+200), which can represent great value for astute bettors. 

Both women rank among the top grapplers in the sport, but their styles are not the same. Jandiroba operates at a slower pace but can precisely utilise her chain wrestling and positional control to thoroughly frustrate her opponents, while Dern has a lot of explosive attacks, which typically can end fights quickly, particularly submission attacks. 

With the stakes put in place, this fight means more than just a fight for the vacated title; it is about legacy, history, and a way to end a personal score but prove who the best strawweight fighter in the world is.

1. Virna Jandiroba: Currently on a five-fight win streak in the UFC, her consistency and composure under pressure are unmatched in the division. Known as "Carcará," Jandiroba has the attributes of elite grappling ability while also developing her striking skills, being an intelligent striker that uses precision strikes to set up takedowns and/or submissions. Her experience in front of the main event crowd (winning 82% of the time on a main card) could come up big for her. 

2. Mackenzie Dern: The 32-year-old phenom has struggled and battled back from a post-pregnancy slump as well as career setbacks, but now has shown resilience with a winning streak of 3 fights. Mackenzie is a formidable grappler, having world-class BJJ skill; you can always expect danger once she can take a fight to the ground, especially when it gets to mid-round or late-round exchanges.

Ultimately, this is going to be a battle of the psychology and tactics of the fighting styles, Jandiroba's patience vs Dern's aggression, and experience vs submission prowess.

• Last 3 Fights:

  • Win vs Yan Xiaonan (April 2025, UD)

  • Submission win vs. Loopy Godinez (Dec 2024)

  • Decision win vs Angela Hill (May 2024)

• Performance Metrics/Trends:

  • 3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy

  • 1.8 submission attempts per fight

  • 4.12 significant strikes per minute, with 48% accuracy

• Title Implications:

  • Jandiroba has an impressive momentum streak along with an improved strategy; add in enhanced grappling efficiency, and she is in the perfect position to contend for the vacant strawweight championship. 

• Last 3 Fights:

  • Submission win via armbar against Amanda Ribas (October 2024) 

  • Unanimous decision over Lupita Godinez (May 2024)

  • TKO win against Angela Hill (January 2024) 

• Performance Indicators: 

  • 2.1 submission attempts per fight 

  • 8 finishes in the UFC (80% of wins) 

  • Striking: 3.89 significant strikes landed per minute, 45% accuracy 

• Momentum: 

  • Dern appears to have made a good recovery from her pregnancy/maternity leave; however, the unconvincing performances of the previous year against top-level fighters create a certain amount of doubt in the coming rematch with Jandiroba, who is on a run of three victories in a row.

Grappling: Both Dern and Jandiroba have capabilities in grappling exchanges, but positional grappling control is favored towards Jandiroba in this matchup. Dern is explosive in submission, but that can work against her in terms of being productive with Jandiroba's patient control of grappling. 

Striking: Dern has made decent improvements to her stand-up, but Jandiroba puts in a volume of strikes with some accuracy, which opens a pathway to establish takedown and submission neutralization. 

Experience & Conditioning: From past experience, Jandiroba has exhibited a good amount of durability and consistency, while Dern has an edge in past experience and preparation for 5-round bouts, which leaves one path to submission in the late rounds. 

Intangibles: The neutral crowd in Abu Dhabi does not favor either fighter, but a very small advantage goes to Jandiroba for momentum, poise, and the storyline of revenge from her previous unsuccessful fight against Dern. 

Thus far, this rematch allows for multiple routes to analyse and bet for fans and bet sharps. So, if you wish to know how best to analyse Jandiroba and Dern's betting routes: 

• Bet: Jandiroba ML has some good value based on the momentum she carries and the advantage she has in positional control.

• Prop Bets:

  • Dern wins by submission

  • Jandiroba won by decision 

  • Over 2.5 rounds is the favourite due to the potential for an extended grappling battle beyond 2 rounds.

While Dern's submission capabilities are very lethal, I believe Jandiroba's positional control and consistency will get the nod here, making her the smarter choice. Expect a wrestling battle with a grappler's chess match, where strikes lead to takedown attempts, reigning with positional dominance, and each fighter decking the other will test their endurance and composure.

This fight is live either way if Dern hits a scramble; however, if you're talking about a smart three-round grappling title fight, Jandiroba has a systematic approach and a mental edge to have a higher possibility of victory.

The winner will have the current vacant UFC Strawweight Champion title with the ability to set the division's narrative and it is 5 years in building, as Jandiroba will be seeking redemption from her 2020 loss (Jandiroba vs. Dern—2019).

The UFC 321 co-main event between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern is shaping up to be a strategic grappling match with high stakes on the line. As a bettor, consider the consistency, control, and improved striking patterns of Jandiroba while also weighing the fact Dern has dynamic submission potential.