Merab Dvalishvili: The Brothers Grimm
At 34 years old, Merab Dvalishvili is approaching the age fighters at lesser weights begin to decline, but the Georgian champion is aging like fine wine. He's currently riding a 13-fight win streak and is fresh off what was one of his greatest performances: submitting Sean O'Malley in June 2025.
Strengths: SRW-level wrestling, inhuman cardio, consistent over five rounds
Weaknesses: subpar knockout power, sometimes hittable on the feet
Merab's style is brutal in its simplicity: relentless pressure, chain wrestling, control, and grind. Dvalishvili's takedown average of 5.84 per 15 minutes is one of the highest in UFC history. Even when his opponents find the thought of a takedown unfavorable, Dvalishvili pushes the pace and relies upon his elite grappling skills to create openings for control and scoring.
This method has defeated all but Sandhagen in the bantamweight top 5, making Sandhagen the final hurdle to validate his argument for being the greatest bantamweight champion of this generation.
Cory Sandhagen: The Sandman's Counter-Puncher
Cory Sandhagen could not be more different than Merab's grinding machine. Standing at 5'11" and with a 69.5" reach, Sandhagen uses angles, precise punches, and movement to stop his opponents from closing distance. Sandhagen has had many highlight-reel-level KOs, such as a flying knee on Frankie Edgar and a spinning wheel kick KO over Marlon Moraes. Sandhagen is unpredictable and creative, which makes him dangerous.
Strengths: sharp punching, up-to-date defensive grappling, fight IQ
Weaknesses: restrained one-shot knockout power, inconsistent aggression
Cory Sandhagen enters UFC 320 after going 4-1 in his last five fights, where we have witnessed both a shift in grappling and grappling defense and sustained improvement in his striking to gauge range of distance. However, when Sandhagen's wrestling, while decent, is no match for Dvalishvili's elite chain takedowns. This co-main event is set up as a striker vs. grappler match.
Tale of the Tape
Fighter | Dvalishvili | Sandhagen |
---|---|---|
Record | 20-4 | 18-5 |
Age | 34 | 33 |
Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
Reach | 68" | 69.5" |
Weight Class | 135 | 135 |
Style | Wrestling-Pressure | Striking-Precision |
Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.12 | 5.89 |
Takedown Accuracy | 58% | 25% |
Takedown Defense | 88% | 73% |
The numbers show a classic wrestling vs. striking matchup here. Dvalishvili wants to pressure and land high volume, while Sandhagen wants to time and utilize distance.
Fight Analysis: Striker vs. Grappler
In history, we have seen grapplers like Khabib Nurmagomedov overpower strikers, or we have seen precise strikers like Max Holloway score a decision from movement and volume against a wrestler. Merab Dvalishvili comes in from taking his first career submission, but he wins by decision in 11 of his last 13 fights. Dvalishvili’s 6.78 takedowns per 15 minutes are going to put Sandhagen’s 73% takedown defense to the test, while Sandhagen’s 5.89 strikes per minute, if returned to stance, can make Dvalishvili pay.
Sandhagen is dynamic in his striking, and his scrambling and defensive techniques could keep him up and win rounds. This fight is set to be high volume and extremely cardio-driven and will be calculated and tactical throughout.
Fighter Form and Recent Results
Merab Dvalishvili
Defeated Sean O’Malley, Henry Cejudo, and Petr Yan
Merab is establishing a record of takedown volume.
Finding a championship-type poise with elite cardio.
Cory Sandhagen
Defeated Marlon Vera, Deiveson Figueiredo
Dynamic striker, improved defensive wrestling
First UFC title fight after years of improvement.
Watch for X-Factors
Cardio & Endurance: Sandhagen must be wary of Merab's stamina, which will become a factor late in a fight.
Reach & Distance: Sandhagen should do his best work from a distance if he can keep the fight standing.
Aggression & Timing: Sandhagen must have consistent offensive output. Dvalishvili is relentless, and to be successful, aggressive output precludes him from capitalizing on defensive lapses.
Betting Notes and Experts' Picks
Round Totals:
Over 4.5 rounds—135
Under 4.5 rounds +110
Best Bets for UFC 320:
Dvalishvili ML – elite grappling and control of pace make him the favorite.
Over 4.5 Rounds—both fighters are durable and skilled.
Dvalishvili by Decision—his persistence implies he should be able to control the fight for all five rounds.
How Dvalishvili Wins
Unending takedowns: The first 2-3 rounds will be chain wrestling; aim to accumulate to wear down Sandhagen.
Cardio: Stay at his pace for the entire 5 three rounds.
Pressure: Keep Sandhagen in a defensive posture, limiting his striking opportunities.
Dvalishvili wins by a methodical punching style, using pressure and takedown avoidance, scoring points in the clinch, and breaking opponents mentally and physically rather than relying on only finishes.
How Sandhagen Wins
Striking: Use reach, angle, and knees to score clean.
Aggression: Offensive output keeps him from getting into wrestling cycles.
Tactical grappling feel or if knocked down—leg locks or scrambles.
Sandhagen has the tools to defeat the champion. However, he must execute a plan while being aggressive.
Projection for the Fight
A Result: Merab Dvalishvili will get the victory by unanimous decision.
A Reason: Dvalishvili's wrestling, chain takedowns, and cardio will outpace Sandhagen's striking over five rounds.
The Huge-Swing Upset: Sandhagen could win by precisely striking without the fight consistently going to the ground.
Betting Strategy & Evolving Strategy
Total Score Rounds: Take the over on 3.5 rounds
Handicap: Dvalishvili -1.5 rounds
Significant Strikes: Both fighters to score—Yes
Asian Total: Take the over on 3.25 rounds
Asian Handicap: Dvalishvili -1.5
Final Thoughts on the Match
UFC 320's co-main event has the potential for unreal drama. Dvalishvili's relentless activity level poses an incredible challenge to every opponent - and the unique and highly refined striking and tactical intelligence posed by Sandhagen further elevates that challenge. Every interchange between the two will be of the highest importance and every possible round could be positioned to swing in one fighter's favor.
Pick Merab Dvalishvili Due to Dvashvili's fuel efficient game and dominant ground control and takedowns, he pours on the highest volumes of offense in cardio contests. Against the odds. Sandhagen will be competitive in the striking duel due to his range and effective, chaotic striking system that could pull an opponent who tends to prefer the ground into a scrambling situation.
Recommended. Dvalishvili by decision over 4.5 rounds.