Match Overview

• Event: Alexandre Muller vs. Novak Djokovic
• Round: First Round
• Tournament: Wimbledon 2025 – Men’s Singles
• Date: Tuesday, July 1st, 2025
• Start Time: Roughly 1:40 PM UTC
• Venue: Centre Court, Wimbledon, London, England
• Surface: Grass (Outdoor)
• Head-to-Head: Djokovic is currently leading 1-0 (their previous match was at the 2023 US Open, where Djokovic won 6-0, 6-2, 6-3).

Novak Djokovic: Still the King of Grass?

Even at 38 years old, Novak Djokovic is proving that age is just a number. This Serbian tennis legend has made it to the last six Wimbledon finals and has competed for the championship in nine out of the last eleven tournaments.

Djokovic’s Wimbledon Legacy

• Titles: 7 (2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021)
• Finals: 6 consecutive (2018–2024)
• Career Grass Record: One of the highest win percentages in Open Era history

Djokovic shows up at Wimbledon this year with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after falling short in last year's final. In his pre-tournament press conference, he said,

“I love Wimbledon. It’s the tournament I’ve always dreamt of winning. When I come here, I feel extra inspired to deliver my best tennis.”

Despite whispers around his fitness, Djokovic’s skillset suits grass better than almost anyone, and his consistency on serve and return gives him an edge even at 38.

Alexandre Muller: Career-High Season, but Struggling for Form

Alexandre Muller, 28, is having the standout season of his life in 2025. The Frenchman lifted his first ATP trophy at the Hong Kong Open (ATP 250) and reached the final at the Rio Open (ATP 500).

Muller's 2025 Highlights

• ATP Titles: 1 (Hong Kong Open)
• Current Ranking: No. 41 (Career-high: No. 39 in April)
• 2025 Record: 17-15 (before Wimbledon)
• Wimbledon Record: Second-round appearances in 2023 and 2024

But going into Wimbledon, Muller has dropped four straight games, including losses on grass at Halle and Mallorca, all in straight sets.

When asked about drawing Djokovic again, Muller responded with humility and optimism:

“He’s a human like me. There’s always a chance. I’ll give it my best. But he’s the greatest player in history, and his Wimbledon record is incredible.”

Muller vs. Djokovic Head-to-Head Record

• Matches Played: 1
• Djokovic Wins: 1
• Muller Wins: 0
• Last Meeting: US Open 2023—Djokovic won 6-0, 6-2, 6-3.

Muller acknowledged after their US Open meeting that his playing style suits Djokovic too well, especially from the baseline:

“He was so solid. I felt like if he wanted to beat me three times 6-0, he could. He doesn’t give you anything for free.”

Betting Odds (via Stake.us)

Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite, and rightly so. Most books are offering -10000 on him to win, which equates to a 99% implied probability.

Prediction: Djokovic to Win in Straight Sets

According to the latest stats, player comparisons, surface preferences, and insights from machine-learning simulations at Dimers.com, Novak Djokovic has an impressive 92% chance of winning this match. Plus, he’s got an 84% chance of taking the first set, which really shows just how dominant he usually is right from the start.

Key Factors:

• Djokovic’s grass-court dominance

• Muller’s four-match losing streak

• The previous meeting was one-sided.

• Djokovic's excellent return technique and reliability

Djokovic to win 3-0 (straight sets) is the best bet.

Alternative Bet: Djokovic to Win First Set 6-2 or 6-3; Total Games Under 28.5

Match Analysis and Tactical Breakdown

Djokovic’s Strategy:

• Make aggressive returns to attack Muller's second serve.

• To break the beat, use slices and brief angles.

• Down the line, dominate with a backhand.

• Extended rallies may result in unintentional mistakes.

Muller’s Strategy:

• Muller's greatest chance is to serve well and score a few points.

• In rallies, attack early and make it to the net.

• Stay mentally composed and avoid unforced errors.

Unfortunately for Muller, Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner in the history of tennis, and on grass, he becomes nearly unbreakable when in form. Given Muller’s low win percentage against top-20 players, his chances are slim.

Alexandre Muller Player Bio

• Full Name: Alexandre Muller
• Date of Birth: February 1st, 1997
• Birthplace: Poissy, France
• Plays: Right-handed (two-handed backhand)
• Favorite Surface: Clay
• ATP Career Record: 44-54 (as of June 2025)

Best Grand Slam Result: 2nd Round (Wimbledon 2023 & 2024)

Muller's tennis career has been characterized by resilience since she was diagnosed with Crohn's disease at the age of 14. His appreciation for Roger Federer has played a big role in his sophisticated style, but when facing Djokovic, toughness alone might not do the trick.

Novak Djokovic Player Bio

• Full Name: Novak Djokovic
• Date of Birth: May 22nd, 1987
• Nationality: Serbian
• ATP Titles: 98 (including 24 Grand Slam titles)
• Wimbledon Titles: 7
• Career Record: Over 1100 match wins
• Preferred Surface: Grass & Hard

Djokovic is chasing history at Wimbledon 2025. Now that Roger Federer has retired, he’s looking to snag a record-breaking eighth title on grass, a move that would really cement his legacy.

Djokovic in 3, Muller to Fight but Fade

In conclusion, while Alexandre Muller has had a commendable rise in 2025, Wimbledon Centre Court and Novak Djokovic represent a monumental challenge. With his eye on the title, Djokovic is expected to dominate early and finish swiftly.

Final Score Prediction: Djokovic wins 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.