Introduction

UFC 318 promises fireworks as the middleweight division gets a shake-up when Brazilian powerhouse Paulo Costa meets surging Russian striker Roman Kopylov in the co-main event of the evening. This clash of styles and raw aggression versus technical poise and has the potential to steal the show in New Orleans.

Match Details

• Date: July 20th, 2025
• Time: 02:00 AM (UTC)
• Event: UFC 318—Co-Main Event
• Venue: Smoothie King Center
• Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs)

BFans may anticipate a fierce bout that might not last long because both fighters have explosive power and strike aggressively. But who holds the edge? Let’s dive deep into the tale of the tape, recent performances, betting odds, expert predictions, and how you can boost your fight night experience with Stake.us’s incredible welcome offers via Donde Bonuses.

Fighter Profiles: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Recent Form & Fight History

Paulo Costa—Inconsistent but Dangerous

Once touted as the next middleweight champion, Paulo “The Eraser” Costa surged into title contention with highlight-reel knockouts and relentless pressure. Despite the fact that he came off a TKO defeat to Israel Adesanya at UFC 253, Costa has nearly fallen to 1-3, fighting defeats to Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland.

In his last fight against Strickland, Costa showed moments of success but was ultimately outclassed over five rounds. While his volume (158 significant strikes landed) was impressive, he also absorbed more punishment (182 significant strikes received), raising questions about his defensive liabilities and cardio under pressure.

Roman Kopylov—Momentum Is Real

In contrast, Roman Kopylov has been a rising force in the division. The Russian has turned the tide in the UFC after a sluggish start (0–2), winning six of his last seven fights, including five TKO/KO victories. Most recently, he demonstrated his increased timing, poise, and striking variety by stopping Chris Curtis with a powerful head kick.

Kopylov's latest performance stats are quite revealing, and he scored 130 significant strikes against Curtis while taking fewer hits, demonstrating excellent distance control and making wise choices with his shots.

Fight Breakdown & Tactical Analysis

Striking Matchup

Costa brings relentless forward pressure, landing 6.22 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy, one of the highest rates in the division. While this aggressive approach has its perks, it does come with some drawbacks: his striking defense sits at a below-average 49%, and he takes an average of 6.56 strikes every minute. On the other hand, Kopylov takes a more measured approach, landing about 4.96 critical strikes per minute while only taking in 4.86, boasting a stronger defensive rate of 55%. He also makes much better use of angles, kicks, and counterstrikes than Costa does.

Edge: Kopylov and cleaner, more efficient, and defensively sound.

Grappling & Takedowns

Costa has a strong takedown accuracy (75%), but he rarely wrestles. He attempts just 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his submission threat is virtually nonexistent.

Kopylov mixes in takedowns at 1.17 per 15 minutes, with decent 42% accuracy. However, both fighters average 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes, meaning we can expect a mostly stand-up war unless desperation sets in.

Edge: Even slight wrestling edge to Kopylov, but unlikely to play a major role.

Fight IQ & Composure

Kopylov has really stood out in this area during his recent fights. He remains patient and composed under pressure, skillfully setting up shots without rushing to finish them. Costa is the opposite. She tends to burn out after she expends her early energy, making it difficult for her to implement tactical changes until later in the fight.

• Edge: Kopylov—smarter and more patient under fire.

• Prediction: Roman Kopylov to win via TKO/KO

Given the statistical breakdown and stylistic mismatch, Roman Kopylov is the safer option. Costa clearly has knockout power and volume, but his defensive deficiencies, stamina issues, and idleness make him susceptible.

Kopylov's composure, accuracy, and defensive acumen should allow him to weather the early storm, then pick apart a fading Costa in the later rounds.

Pick: Roman Kopylov to win via 3rd Round TKO/KO

UFC 318 Betting Odds & Best Value Bets

Other Must-Watch Fights at UFC 318

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez—Welterweight Slugfest

• Holland: 28-13-0 (1 NC), lands 4.24 strikes/min

• Rodriguez: 19-5-0, lands 7.39 strikes/min

• Prediction: Rodriguez by decision in a back-and-forth brawl.

Patricio Freire vs. Dan Ige—Featherweight Fireworks

• Freire: 36-8-0, experienced and tactical

• Ige: 19-9-0, aggressive with good defense

• Prediction: Ige by close split decision.

Current Betting Odds from Stake.us

According to Stake.com, the betting odds for the two fighters are as follows:

• Paulo Costa: 2.90

• Roman Kopylov: 1.44

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Who Has the Edge?

The middleweight division is heating up, and UFC 318’s co-main event could determine who gets a top-5 opponent next. Costa is always dangerous early, but Kopylov’s all-around game, recent momentum, and better durability make him the rightful favorite.

He’s been more active, more composed, and more technical and against a fighter like Costa, those qualities matter most.

Summary: Costa vs. Kopylov Quick Picks

• Winner: Roman Kopylov
• Method: TKO/KO (Round 3)
• Betting Pick: Kopylov ML -241 / Kopylov via TKO/KO
• Value Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds
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