Christmas Day in the NBA is so much more than another date on the calendar, it is a statement of what you are trying to achieve. Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks face off on Christmas Day at Chase Center with playoff glory and excitement awaiting both teams as they look to keep their momentum moving into the regular season. This game between two Western Conference teams is not just important because of playoff standings but there are other factors that matter such as who is going to win this game. Both teams have won recently however it has also been hard for both teams to find consistency in recent games due to injuries. The game is more about who these teams are, how they respond to adversity and how they have faith in themselves as to whether they can continue to compete at a high level moving forward.

Match Details

• Competition: NBA
• Date: December 25th, 2025
• Time: 10:00pm UTC
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco

Warriors Home Court Advantage in Game 1 of Christmas Day Double Header

Golden State enters this game with a record of 15 wins and 15 loses which puts them in the current 8th place in the Western Conference. With their current placing in the Western Conference obviously does not sound like a team who is elite, however when you take it into consideration the fact that the Warriors have successfully been able to regain their reputation of having home advantage at the Chase Center as evidenced by their 9 wins and 4 losses home record so far this season.

When Golden State plays at home you can see an immediate impact: fast and furious ball movement leads to more efficient turnover rates and greater defensive rotation efficiencies by the Warriors along with the added bonus of the home crowd being the sixth defender. The Warriors' recent performance is indicative of their resurgence as a team. In their previous two victories, they were able to show their versatility and skill level, winning both of those games with 119-116 over the Phoenix Suns and 120-97 over the Orlando Magic. Throughout these two games, the Warriors exhibited both late-game composure and defensive prowess; against the Magic, they established control over the entire tempo right from the opening tip and contained the Magic's shooting average at just 41.4 percent for the entire contest.

Stephen Curry led the way for the Warriors once again by scoring 26 points, but one of the biggest positives for the Golden State Warriors is that they have a well-balanced offensive attack. Jimmy Butler added a solid 21 points, Moses Moody contributed 20 points, and the Warriors finished the night with 28 assists as the team's offensive system appears to be working well together.

This year, the Golden State Warriors have not been an elite offensive team statistically; they currently rank 22nd in the league for points per game with an average of 114.2 points per game, and they have shot only 45.2 percent from the field, which indicates a tough time being efficient. However, their competitive edge comes from the fact that they are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing only 112.3 points per game and possessing the 4th best defensive rating of the entire league through forcing turnovers, effectively switching defensively, and containing perimeter shooters. Stephen Curry continues to power the Warriors with an average of 28.7 points per game, while Jonathan Kuminga is leading the team in rebounding. Draymond Green is still leading the Warriors’ offense from the high post, making plays both offensively and defensively, though there are a lot of other stories being told about him as well. Regardless, the Warriors are typically sharper at home, so we’ll see what happens on Christmas night.

Dallas Mavericks: Talented Team in Disarray and Struggling to Win on the Road

The Mavericks played an exciting game last night against the Denver Nuggets, which ended with a thrilling 131-130 victory. The game exposed the Mavericks’ potential to be very good, as well as their inability to maintain that consistent level of performance. Cooper Flagg had a breakout performance with 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists, and Anthony Davis continued to dominate the paint with 31 points and 9 rebounds. Although this is a great win for the Mavericks, it is also a reminder of how inconsistency can come back to haunt you.

Dallas is currently sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference with a 12-19 record and has been unable to consistently win games on the road. The Mavericks have a record of 3-10 in road games this season and have lost their last four road games and seven of their last nine overall. The Mavs have struggled to play solid defense away from Dallas and struggle with last-minute execution late in the game.

The Mavericks are currently among the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA, currently ranking 23rd overall in points per game scored at 113.6. Their field goal percentage of 46.6% is below average, and their performance from the three-point line is even lower at 33.4% (ranked 24th). The Mavericks are allowing an average of 117.4 points per game, placing them 18th overall defensively. Although they aren't terrible defensively, they also aren't an elite defense that can slow down very good spacing teams like Golden State. The Mavericks have been somewhat successful this season, primarily due to Anthony Davis' performance. He is currently averaging 21.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Ryan Nembhard is the team's leading assist man. Although freshman phenom Flagg has begun to play better recently, the Mavericks continue to be without key contributors, including Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum, leaving them extremely short-handed and depending heavily on their starting five players to carry most of the team's minutes.

On Christmas Day, depth will be extremely important, especially in difficult road environments, and the Dallas Mavericks could feel that pressure.

Head-to-Head: Even History, Home Field Advantage

When looking at head-to-head matchups between these two franchises over the course of the last several years, it appears that both organizations were relatively evenly matched. In their last ten contests against one another, the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks have each won five games against the other. However, where the matchup is played does appear to have a definitive bearing on the outcome of those matchups; the Golden State Warriors have won six of their last eight home games against the Mavericks, including their 126-102 victory earlier this season at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Scoring trends in five of the previous seven contests have reached at least 225 combined points due to fast-paced play and skilled shooters on both teams. In games where defenses tighten, things tend to open in the final minutes of the game.

Tactics that will Play a Major Role in Deciding this Contest

Perimeter Gravity Versus Interior Pressure

Golden State’s spacing-based offense is heavily built on the three-point shot (41.8% of their scoring comes from the three). They have the most attempts in the league. To limit Golden State's shooting percentage, Dallas must close out aggressively. The downside to an aggressive closeout is it creates driving lanes for both Curry and Butler. Dallas will, however, look to punish Golden State inside the paint. Anthony Davis will have the opportunity to exploit traditional weaknesses in the Warriors' interior defense.

Turnovers and Tempo

The Warriors average over 16 turnovers per contest (one of the largest turnover averages), thus providing Dallas with a potential opportunity to capitalize on their vulnerability. If the Mavericks generate steals and transition opportunities, they will remain competitive. If Golden State controls possession and tempo, however, Dallas' half-court offense may shut down.

Depth and Late-Game Execution

The Golden State Warriors (GSW) have an advantage over the Dallas Mavericks (DAL) when the game comes down to the end about depth and their home court familiarity. Christmas Day games frequently turn during the last quarter, but GSW has a much deeper rotation and is more comfortable playing at their home arena than DAL, who will be without some of their key players.

Betting Insights and Projections

There are two conflicting narratives to consider when placing bets on this matchup. GSW performs well as a home underdog but has struggled as a favorite. Meanwhile, DAL has a history of struggling on the road but regularly covers the spread when playing away from home. The most distinct narrative to follow may come from betting on the total points.

Based on the last ten matchups between these teams, as well as current averages of 113 total points scored per game for both teams and the fact that both teams tend to get sloppy defensively at the end of games, the Over 225-227.5 may be the best play available. There is traditionally a lot of adrenaline flowing on Christmas Day, leading teams to play at a faster pace than normal, and neither team has any intention of playing a slower game.

• Predicted Final Score: Golden State Warriors 118, Dallas Mavericks 109

It is expected that the Warriors will be able to keep pace with the Mavericks and ultimately win because they have the best home court record in the league and great depth on their roster. Although Dallas will compete at times, it is likely that the Warriors will be able to wear them down towards the end of the game because they will not be able to maintain their level of play for four quarters on the road.

Current Winning Odds for the Match (via Stake.com)

What the Final Score Means in Both Teams

This matchup on Christmas Day is not about being the best team; rather, it is about being able to show improvement. This game is an opportunity for the Warriors to continue their stronghold as the top team at Chase Center and to continue to move up the standings as they push towards the playoffs. This game is also a chance for the Mavericks to show that they can compete at a high level when they are away from their home court.

This game should be exciting to watch with plenty of fast pace, high energy, and swing momentum. It is certain to be a great game to watch on Christmas Day and will serve as a reminder of why the NBA celebrates Christmas.