Il Lombardia 2025: Anticipation and Forecast

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Oct 7, 2025 12:15 UTC
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the cycling race of il lombardia

Introduction: The Grand Finale of Cycling's Grand Season

The cycling world holds its collective breath for one last, breathtaking spectacle: Il Lombardia. Scheduled on October 11th, the Giro di Lombardia, or "La Classica delle foglie morte" (The Race of the Falling Leaves), is the fifth and final Monument of professional road cycling's road season. It is a unique race that blends the sheer endurance of a Grand Tour stage with the knife-edged drama of a one-day Classic.

Starting in picturesque lake town Como and ending in Bergamo's historic streets, this 119th edition of Il Lombardia is a tribute to history, heroism, and sheer brutality of climbing in Italy. Contrary to the spring Monuments where grit is strained on cobble or aircraft speeded upon, Lombardia demands the explosive strength of a puncheur and unrelenting stamina of a straight-up climber. The stage is laid for an action-packed, breathtaking, and utterly exhausting finale to the 2025 racing season.

Race Overview: Como to Bergamo – 4,400-Meter Vertical Test

The 2025 route evokes the challenging Como to Bergamo route, repeating the hugely selective route of two years ago. This parcourse is designed to take apart the peloton through accumulated fatigue, channeling the mountain workload into the race-defining latter stages.

a satellite map of giro di lombardio

Distance and Height

The race covers an astonishing distance of 238 kilometers (147.9 miles). More significantly, riders will ride through a colossal cumulative height gain of over 4,400 meters (14,400 feet). To give some perspective, that represents two climbs of the iconic Mont Ventoux in one day, maintaining a desperate, high-intensity effort.

Course Profile: The War of Attrition

the racing course of il lombardia

The initial 100 kilometers are a tempting, but deceptive, warm-up on the shores of Lake Como. But once the race reaches the province of Bergamo, it turns into a merciless series of climbs and descents with barely a kilometer of flat road to recover. This stop-and-go nature excludes rhythm and suits riders capable of coming back strongly between out-of-the-saddle efforts. The debilitating fatigue ensures that by the time the race hits the final, determining mountains, only the toughest best-of-the-best will remain in contention for the win.

Critical Climbs and Technical Terrain: Where Il Lombardia is Won

The 2025 route features a sequence of six critical climbs, each serving to whittle down the contenders, culminating in two determining barriers in the final.

Madonna del Ghisallo (The Spiritual Start)

  • Stats: Approximately 8.8 km at 3.9% (off the Asso side).

  • Role: Early in the race (approximately 38 km), the Ghisallo, site of the world-famous cyclists' chapel, is primarily a ceremonial and emotional start to mountain climbing. Too soon to be decisive near the finish, it serves early vertical tension and sets the tone.

Roncola (Valpiana Pass)

  • Stats: 9.4 km at average 6.6%, with sections up to 17%.

  • Role: Where the race truly comes alive, 100 kilometers from the course. The strict, uncompromising slopes of the Roncola are the first significant point of selection, weeding out anyone not carrying top late season climbing form.

Passo di Ganda (The Decisive Launchpad)

  • Stats: 9.2 km at 7.3% average, the final 3.2 km climbing at merciless 9.7% to 10%.

  • Role: Crested with less than 30 kilometers remaining, Passo di Ganda is the widely accepted starting point for the decisive winning attack. The unremitting steepness of the top third ensures that no more than one or two riders, or a very select handful, will drop off the top.

  • Historical Perspective: Tadej Pogačar famously launched his victorious attack on his own down the descent of this climb in a prior edition, illustrating just as important how the 16-kilometre, twisty descent back into the Serio valley is to experienced bike-handlers.

Colle Aperto / Bergamo Alta (The Final Grand Finale)

  • Stats: 1.6 km at 7.9% average, with brief cobbled section reaching 12%.

  • Role: As there are less than 4 kilometers remaining, the final, painful obstacle is the climb into Bergamo's Upper Town. Short but sharp, the ramp has a brief, cobbled-paving ridged top. Any doubt here will be punished severely, as the final burst up a sprint from here to the fast 3-kilometre plummet to the Viale Roma finish in the lower town.

History & Statistics: The Monumental Legacy

the first il lambardia winner giovanni gerbi

In 1905 Giovanni Gerbi became the first winner of Il Lombardia (Mondadori via Getty Images)

Il Lombardia is the youngest of the five Monuments but boasts a history and prestige to rival the spring Monument holders.

Historical Standing

First staged in 1905, the race has survived two World Wars and a few route alterations to establish itself alongside Milan–San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, Paris–Roubaix, and Liège–Bastogne–Liège. It is considered a specialist's Monument, typically being won by cyclists with Grand Tour climbing talent combined with day-out-and-shut-down explosive power.

Record Holders: Coppi vs. Pogačar

Il Lombardia history is commanded by mythological Italian masters, but modern times are ruled by a single name: Tadej Pogačar.

RiderCountryTotal WinsYears of Victory (Notable)
Fausto CoppiItaly51946, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1954
Alfredo BindaItaly41925, 1926, 1927, 1931
Tadej PogačarSlovenia42021, 2022, 2023, 2024 (4 consecutive)

Tadej Pogačar's Chase: Slovenian phenom begins the 2025 edition in pursuit of history. His four consecutive wins (2021-2024) have already placed him on par with Alfredo Binda, second on the list all-time. A win by Pogačar on October 11 ties the record-breaking five victories of the legendary Campionissimo, Fausto Coppi. This behemoth pursuit places an enormous layer of expectation on the race.

Recent Winners Table

YearWinnerTeamDecisive Move
2024Tadej PogačarUAE Team EmiratesSolo attack on Passo di Ganda descent
2023Tadej PogačarUAE Team EmiratesAttack on Civiglio, solo to the line
2022Tadej PogačarUAE Team EmiratesTwo-up sprint against Enric Mas
2021Tadej PogačarUAE Team EmiratesTwo-up sprint against Fausto Masnada
2020Bauke MollemaTrek-SegafredoLate attack from the leading group
2019Thibaut PinotGroupama-FDJSolo from the final climbs

Main Contenders & Rider Preview

The starting line features the world's best climbers and puncheurs, all vying for the season's final major prize.

The Dominator: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

Pogačar is the overwhelming favorite. His knack for producing a brief, explosive burst of acceleration on an arduous climb, combined with his elite-level technical descending ability, is perfectly suited to the Motegi circuit. His team, featuring great climbers like Juan Ayuso and Rafał Majka, will be entrusted with controlling the race up until the final 50 kilometers, setting up Pogačar to make his inevitable move on the Passo di Ganda. Everything that opposition teams will be doing tactically will be to isolate and neutralize the Slovenian before this.

The Challenger: Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)

If any rider is able to get to the level of Pogačar's unbridled climbing talent, it is Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian's condition after the Grand Tour season is usually top class. Although his earlier ventures at Il Lombardia have yielded mixed outcomes (including a bad crash in 2020), his capacity for maintaining a high-power effort on descents and short, sharp climbs renders him Pogačar's strongest challenger. The key to Evenepoel's success will be his tactical patience and capacity for sticking with the Slovenian's wheel on the steepest terrain.

The Ineos Threat: Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)

The ultimate puncheur for this type of race, Tom Pidcock is a world cyclocross champion in the past with unmatched handling abilities and is a formidable threat to the technical descents and the final cobbled part of Colle Aperto. If the select few who are smaller in number challenge the finish, Pidcock's finishing spurt and descending ability make him a strong winner even against the specialists. Ineos will likely use numbers to attack early and exhaust Pogačar before the crucial climb.

The Local Heroes & Dark Horses

  • Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek): As an Italian, the pressure and desire to perform on home soil are enormous. Ciccone's climbing form has appeared top-notch and is Italy's best hope for a podium finish.

  • Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost): The Ecuadorian's aggressive climbing tactic and his debilitating rhythm could potentially tear the race asunder early. If he stays in touch with the leaders' wheels to Ganda, he is dangerous.

  • Ben O'Connor (Team Jayco AlUla): The Australian Mountain climber has been a regular top ten finisher at Grand Tours and possesses the endurance necessary to excel in this 238 km ultra-marathon.

Prediction & Final Thoughts

Strategic Analysis

The race will simply unfold in the following way: the breakaway is caught before the Roncola, the acceleration on the Passo della Crocetta being spectacular. The winner will be determined either on the Passo di Ganda or, strategically, on the downhill ride after that, as seen in 2024. Sprint teams seeking a finish in a peloton will need two or three riders to wear down attacks, but history points to the best climber taking it solo or in a tiny group.

The steep rise and finishing exhaustion in the final-season shape ensure that merely reaching the finish is an accomplishment; to achieve, one must have flawless procedure and a forceful finishing kick along the Colle Aperto.

Winner Prediction

While the quality of the field assures a thrilling contest, it is just about impossible to challenge the victor of this race for four consecutive years. The combination of his dominant form and his historical motivation to equal Fausto Coppi’s record makes Tadej Pogačar the overwhelming favorite. Expect him to launch a searing attack on the final kilometer of the Passo di Ganda, using the subsequent descent to open a definitive gap that will carry him into the cobbled streets of Bergamo for a historic fifth consecutive victory.

Summary

The Giro di Lombardia is the season's last great bellow, and the 2025 race, with the bonus drive of Pogačar in pursuit of history, will be among the most fascinating in years. From the stunning lakeside start through the ruthless mountain stages and the challenging finish atop Bergamo Alta, it is a race that honors road cycling's harshest disciplines. Get ready for a breathtaking, bloody, and unforgettable conclusion to the Monument season.

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