- Date: June 23rd, 2025
- Time: 12.00 PM UTC
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
- Series: Tied 3–3
Introduction
It’s all come down to this. Sunday night, either the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Indiana Pacers will be crowned NBA champions.
There are not many sporting events capable of matching the drama and magnitude of a Game 7 NBA Finals showdown. This is the 20th instance when the Finals have gone all the way. And while this series may not have the historical weight of the 2016 Cavaliers-Warriors epic, it has given us a dramatic, back-and-forth battle that has been gripping the basketball world.
Will the Thunder fulfill their destiny as the NBA's next dynasty on home soil, or will the underdog Pacers cap off a Cinderella run for the ages?
Team Standings and Season Recap
Oklahoma City Thunder (Western Conference—1st Place)
- Record: 68–14 (.829)
- Home: 35–6
- Last 10 Games: 8–2
- Playoff Home Margin of Victory: +20.6 PPG
Powered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams, OKC has been a juggernaut all season. Their top-ranked defense and deep rotation have overwhelmed opponents, especially at home.
Indiana Pacers (Eastern Conference—4th Place)
- Record: 50–32 (.610)
- Home: 29–11 | Away: 20–20
- Last 10 Games: 8–2
With every possibility of being a fourth seed in view, Indiana has gone contrary to all expectations through their unselfish style of play, tactical versatility from Rick Carlisle, and clutch shot-making from Tyrese Haliburton.
Game 6 Recap: Pacers Force Game 7
Being on the verge of elimination, Indiana dominated the game with a 108–91 blowout win. The momentum swung in seconds in a corroborative 36–17 run against the Thunder.
Top Performers:
- Obi Toppin: 20 pts
- T.J. McConnell: 12 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast
Indiana’s bench production and physical defense rattled OKC, who failed to recover from the early deficit.
Key Matchups to Watch
SGA vs. Nembhard/Nesmith:
SGA must recover from Game 6’s 8-turnover showing against Indiana's swarming perimeter defense.
Chet Holmgren vs. Myles Turner:
Turner's ability to stretch the floor could pull Holmgren away from rim protection duties.
Tyrese Haliburton vs. OKC Traps:
A lingering leg injury + 21 turnovers this series = pressure cooker scenario for Indy’s star.
Keys to Victory: Indiana Pacers
Ball Movement:
With 8 players averaging double figures in the Finals, Indiana must continue their pass-first ethos.
Dare OKC to Shoot 3s:
OKC’s Big 3 are shooting just 14-for-61 from deep.
Limit Turnovers:
Their 99 total turnovers in the series are a red flag—especially for Haliburton.
X-Factor:
Myles Turner— His shooting could open lanes and destabilize OKC’s interior defense.
Keys to Victory: Oklahoma City Thunder
Make Perimeter Shots:
With just a 50.3% eFG in the Finals and Holmgren at 11.8% from 3, efficiency is key.
Bench Impact:
Along with early contributions from Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, or Lu Dort, a momentum change could occur.
Slow the Game Down:
Winning the rebounding battle and controlling tempo are big factors against Indy in their mainstay of down-the-line fast style.
X-Factor:
Alex Caruso—a defensive stalwart whose offensive aggression may yet carry this one.
Expert Predictions & Betting Odds
Odds (via stake.com):
- Thunder: -325
- Pacers: +260
- Spread: Thunder -7.5
- O/U: 214.5
- Stake Predictor: Thunder 59.3%
Expert Picks:
Thunder: Eric Cohen, Jeff Zillgitt, James H. Williams, James Boyd, Christian Clark, John Hollinger, Tony Jones, Eric Koreen
Pacers: Sam Amick, Zach Harper, Jason Jones, Zak Keefer, Jay King, Jon Krawczynski
Final Tally: Indiana 6, Oklahoma City 5—a split field with a slight lean toward the underdogs.
X-Factors and Game Changers
- T.J. McConnell (Pacers): An Energizer and probably Finals MVP if the Pacers are to cash in.
- Obi Toppin (Pacers): Wildcard scorer capable of stealing an offensive momentum.
- Isaiah Joe (Thunder): A bench sniper who could open this contest.
- Jalen Williams (Thunder): When he scores 20+, OKC Aussie wins usually.
Final Prediction & Analysis
Predicted Score: Thunder 105 – Pacers 97
The okay team: home dominance, a deeper talent pool, and SGA (bounceback potential)—all translate into slim favorites. But with Indiana's fearlessness, deep bench production, and that unquantifiable value of "it" factor, it's definitely not a foregone conclusion.
A fiercely contested first half, a lot of physical play, and perhaps a crucial moment from one of the league's young players are all to be expected.
Legacy on the Line: The Bigger Picture
A Thunder win cements the arrival of a new superpower, built through draft picks, development, and defensive excellence.
A Pacers win is nothing short of a storybook upset, a team without a single MVP candidate riding hustle, depth, and belief to the mountaintop.
Tyrese Haliburton’s four buzzer-beaters. T.J. McConnell’s grit. Obi Toppin’s breakout. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP season. Chet Holmgren’s rise. This Game 7 isn’t just a finale—it’s a flashpoint for the NBA’s next era.
