Introduction: Two Heavy Hitters Collide on Grass

As we move through the year, Wimbledon 2025 continues to showcase breath-taking matches, unexpected eliminations of favorites, and everything in between and we still haven't completed the second week of playing! One of the most awaited matches coming up is defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, who will be playing against 14th seed Rublev in the Round of 16, as we expect Alcaraz to show his immaculate shot-making prowess that comes with a sea of betting opportunities to keep it on its toes.

Match Information—Alcaraz vs. Rublev

• Event: Wimbledon 2025 – Men’s Singles Round of 16
• Date: Sunday, July 6th, 2025
• Time: 3:30 PM (UTC)
• Venue: Centre Court, All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London
• Surface: Outdoor Grass
• Official Odds (via Stake.com):
  • Carlos Alcaraz: 1.09 (~92.3% win probability)
  • Andrey Rublev: 8.00 (~13.3% win probability)

Carlos Alcaraz—Defending Champion in Relentless Form

2025 Season Recap

Carlos Alcaraz has been in outstanding form in 2025, winning five victories at the Queen's, Roland Garros, Rome, Rotterdam, and Monte Carlo tournaments. His stunning victory over Jannik Sinner in the French Open final served as a reminder of his ability to win and persevere under duress.

Wimbledon 2025 So Far

• R1: Defeated Fabio Fognini (7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1)

• R2: Defeated Oliver Tarvet (6-1, 6-4, 6-4)

• R3: Defeated Jan-Lennard Struff (6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4)

Alcaraz has dropped three sets in three matches, revealing some vulnerability, but his superior court coverage, grass-court agility, and serve placement remain elite.

Strengths

• Versatile attacking game

• 32-3 record on grass

• Comfortable in high-pressure situations

• High breakpoint conversion rate of 45%

Andrey Rublev—Quiet Confidence from the Russian

2025 Season Overview

Rublev has had a mixed year, held a 21-14 record, and won a title in Doha. His inconsistent results, however, have been offset by recent improved performances, including a final in Hamburg.

Wimbledon 2025 Journey

• R1: Beat Laslo Djere (6-0, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6)

• R2: Beat Lloyd Harris (6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3)

• R3: Beat Adrian Mannarino (7-5, 6-2, 6-3)

Rublev has shown excellent serving form—14 aces in R3—and solid return play. He’s only been broken twice all tournament and is looking to match his best Wimbledon result (quarterfinals, 2023).

Strengths

• Big first serve (80% win on 1st serve)

• Flat groundstrokes suited for grass

• Relentless baseline aggression

• Improved mental focus

Head-to-Head Record—Advantage Alcaraz

H2H Summary:

Alcaraz leads 2-1, but this will be their first meeting on grass. Rublev’s lone win came in Madrid, a slower surface more suited to his baseline game.

Tactical Preview—Where Will the Match Be Won?

1. Return of Serve

Alcaraz is a dangerous returner, converting 36% of return points and breaking serve in nearly half of his chances. Rublev’s second serve has often been targeted, and this could be a key weakness.

2. Mental Toughness

Rublev has a reputation for having trouble under duress. His Grand Slam record shows no semifinal appearances in ten quarterfinal runs, even though he has been consulting with a psychologist. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is unaffected by crowd or scoreboard pressure and performs best in best-of-five games.

3. Grass Court Adaptability

Alcaraz has 18 Wimbledon match wins, including back-to-back titles. His touch, slices, and net play give him an edge on grass. Rublev’s flatter shots work well here, but he lacks variation and might be too predictable over a long match.

Predictions & Betting Tips – Stake.com Expert Picks

Match Winner: Carlos Alcaraz (1/12)

Too risky to bet straight up at such short odds, but he’s clearly the favorite. A safer bet is in set or game markets.

Best Bet: Rublev to Win At Least One Set (-115)

Rublev is playing well, and Alcaraz has dropped a set in two of three rounds already. Back the Russian to take a set, possibly the opener with an aggressive start.

Set Betting: Alcaraz to Win 3-1 (+250)

This bet covers the likely outcome while offering decent value. Rublev’s strong serving could push the Spaniard in the early sets.

Total Games Over 34.5 (10/11)

This market could hit even in a 3-set match if at least one set goes to a tiebreak. Rublev’s serve should keep him competitive.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev—Stats Comparison

Wimbledon 2025—Round of 16 Other Key Matches

While Alcaraz vs. Rublev steals the spotlight, other intriguing matchups in the Round of 16 include

• Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz

• Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

• Hubert Hurkacz vs. Frances Tiafoe

Stay tuned for more previews and tips right here as the road to Wimbledon glory continues.

Final Prediction: Alcaraz in 4 Sets

A tough opponent, for sure, and in good form; Alcaraz, however, with advantages in versatility, athleticism, and mental strength, should prevail. It should really be a competitive affair, though in the end, a routine 3-1 win for Spain.

Quick Betting Summary—Stake.com Odds (as of July 5, 2025)