The wait is on for one of the most eagerly awaited fights in UFC history. On June 28, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Ilia Topuria faced off against legendary Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship. The epic clash headlines UFC 317 in some high-stakes action that fans will not want to miss.
This preview covers everything you need to know about the competitors, their skill sets, critical statistics, betting opportunities, and why this fight is so significant for the sport.
Ilia Topuria's Background
Ilia Topuria, or "El Matador," has been nothing short of phenomenal in his career to date. Topuria boasts a flawless record of 16-0-0 at the age of 28, and his dominance and technique in the octagon have been there for everyone to see.
Fighting Style and Strengths
- Technical Striking: Topuria is known for his sharp and precise boxing, wherein he likes to overwhelm opponents using measured aggression.
- Versatility: He also integrates grappling into his weaponry seamlessly, making opponents guess.
- Recent Knockouts: Notable wins include KO victories over Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in 2024.
Career Highlights
Moving up to the lightweight division proves Topuria's desire. Having vacated his featherweight title, he is on the path to greatness in a second weight class, going after the rare distinction of joining a select few fighters who have ever held title belts in more than one division.
Charles Oliveira's Background
Across from him is Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira, a veteran and one of the most successful lightweights in UFC history. Although participating in this fight at 35 years of age, Oliveira remains a dangerous and dynamic fighter.
Fighting Style and Achievements
Submission Specialist: The holder of most submissions in UFC history (16), Oliveira's ground game is legendary.
Most Finishes in UFC: An incredible 20 finishes, which means he is a threat at all times.
Recent Performances:
Defeated Michael Chandler (November 2024) by unanimous decision.
Lost a close contest to Arman Tsarukyan (April 2024) at UFC 300.
Despite setbacks, Oliveira's ability to adapt and bounce back has defined his resilient career.
Key Stats and Analysis
Striking
Topuria:
Sig Strikes Landed Per Minute (LPM): 4.69
Significant Strike Accuracy (ACC): 50.00%
Oliveira:
Sig Strikes LPM: 3.40
Significant Strike Accuracy (ACC): 63.07%
Grappling
Topuria:
Takedown AVG (TD AVG): 2.02
Takedown Accuracy (TD ACC): 61.11%
Submission Avg. (SUB AVG): 1.10
Oliveira:
TD AVG: 2.25
TD ACC: 40.21%
SUB AVG: 2.66
Physical Stats
Height:
Topuria: 5' 7"
Oliveira: 5' 10"
Reach:
Topuria: 69 inches
Oliveira: 74 inches
Analysis:
While Topuria possesses the striking advantage in activity, Oliveira's accuracy on the feet, coupled with his reach advantage, renders him equally dangerous. On the ground, Oliveira's submission record speaks for itself, but Topuria's takedown defense and counter-grappling will be the determining factors.
Expert Prediction
This fight pits Topuria's technical striking and momentum versus Oliveira's ground game expertise and experience.
Topuria's Path to Victory:
He must keep the fight standing, using his precise striking to control the distance.
His takedown defense skills will be instrumental in avoiding Oliveira's submissions.
Oliveira's Path to Victory:
Must turn this into a grappling fight, using their slick transitions to find an opening to attempt a submission.
Bridge the gaping deficit by utilizing his reach advantage and leg kicks to create takedown openings.
Official Prediction:
Ilia Topuria via TKO in Round 3. While Oliveira's experience and grappling skills on the ground present a deadly danger, Topuria's youthful energy, striking advantage, and incredible adaptability could provide him with the advantage.
Current Betting Odds & Win Probability
According to Stake.com, here are the current odds:
Ilia Topuria—Win Odds: 1.20
Charles Oliveira—Win Odds: 4.80
Topuria is a heavy favorite, but the finishing potential of Oliveira from just about anywhere provides an enticing underdog value.
What This Fight Means for the UFC?
This lightweight title fight at UFC 317 is not only about crowning a new champion. It's a landmark in the evolution of the division. For Topuria, a win will clinch his two-division phenomenon status and signal the arrival of MMA's newest superstar. Oliveira sees it as an opportunity to redeem himself and establish himself as one of the game's all-time greatest players.
