Introduction: A Pitching Duel Under the Lights

Friday night's MLB clash at Target Field promises to be a low-scoring, high-intensity contest as the Minnesota Twins host the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates. With both teams sending their aces—Joe Ryan and Paul Skenes—to the mound, the matchup looks like a potential pitchers' clinic. The Pirates limp into Minnesota after six straight losses, while the Twins look to capitalize on their recent momentum.

Match Details

• Venue: Target Field, Minnesota
• Date & Time: July 12, 2025 | 12:10 AM (UTC)
• Competition: Major League Baseball (MLB) Regular Season

Team Form & Standings Overview

Minnesota Twins (45-48 Record)

The Twins sit tied for second in the AL Central, 13 games behind the Tigers. Minnesota has struggled with consistency all season, hovering around .500. Recent performance suggests they may be turning a corner, winning four of their last six.

• Batting Average: .240 (22nd in MLB)

• Runs Scored: 386 (21st)

• Team ERA: 4.14 (19th)

• Slugging %: .396 (16th)

Pittsburgh Pirates (38-56 Record)

Last in the NL Central and on a six-game skid, the Pirates are battling more than just their opponents—they're battling form and morale. Their offense has been one of the weakest in the majors.

• Batting Average: .230 (27th)

• Runs Scored: 319 (29th)

• Team ERA: 3.68 (9th)

• Slugging %: .340 (30th)

Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs. Paul Skenes

Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins)

• Record: 8-4

• ERA: 2.76

• WHIP: 0.89

• Strikeouts: 116

• Home BAA: .188

• Recent Form: 3 ER over last 19 innings

Joe Ryan is Minnesota's most consistent arm in 2025. He’s been nearly untouchable at home and has a strikeout rate that frustrates hitters. In his lone career start against Pittsburgh, he gave up two runs over seven innings.

Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

• Record: 4-7

• ERA: 1.94

• WHIP: 0.92

• Strikeouts: 125

• Home Runs Allowed: 5 over 116 IP

Despite a losing record, Skenes has been the shining light in an otherwise dismal Pirates season. He’s dominating hitters and limiting long balls. However, the Pirates offense often fails to give him enough run support.

Twins Offensive Leaders & Prop Bets

Byron Buxton (Day-to-day: Hand)

• AVG: .270

• HR: 20

• RBI: 53

• Prop Bets: 0.5 HR (+200), 0.5 Hits (-205)

If healthy, Buxton remains the centerpiece of this offense. He has power, speed, and solid discipline at the plate.

Ryan Jeffers

• AVG: .248

• OBP: .346

• Hitting Streak: 4 games

• Prop Bets: 0.5 Hits (-170), 0.5 RBI (+225)

Jeffers is heating up at the right time and is expected to make an impact in the middle of the lineup.

Trevor Larnach & Ty France

• Combined for 28 HR and 84 RBI

• Prop Bets (Larnach): 0.5 Hits (-155), 0.5 RBI (+275)

Pirates Offensive Leaders & Prop Bets

Oneil Cruz

• AVG: .246
• HR: 16
• RBI: 37
• Prop Bets: 0.5 HR (+215)

Cruz has the power to change games, but his lack of consistency and low RBI rank limit his impact.

Bryan Reynolds

• AVG: .252

• RBI: 46

• Hits: 78

• Prop Bets: 0.5 Hits (-220), 0.5 RBI (+190)

A reliable contributor, Reynolds remains the most complete hitter in Pittsburgh’s lineup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

• AVG: .267

• Prop Bet Value: 10-game hit streak on Friday night appearances

Statistical Breakdown & Betting Trends

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• Record (Last 10): 5-5

• Run Line: 4-6

• O/U Total: 2-8

• Favorite Record (Last 10): 4-3

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• Record (Last 10): 4-6

• Run Line: 6-4

• O/U Total: 3-7

• Underdog Record (Last 10): 3-6

Key Trends

• The Twins have won 15 of the last 16 games against visiting Pirates teams.

• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 6 of their last 8 games as underdogs against AL Central teams.

• The Under has cashed in 7 of Minnesota’s last 9 and 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 8.

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

• Byron Buxton: Day-to-day (hand)

• Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Luke Keaschall: IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Chase Shugart, Ryan Borucki, Tim Mayza, Justin Lawrence, Johan Oviedo, Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez, and Enmanuel Valdez: all on IL

Prediction & Analysis

This matchup is about one thing: elite starting pitching. Paul Skenes and Joe Ryan are both capable of tossing seven-plus shutout innings. The big question is, who will blink first? With Pittsburgh's offense among the weakest in the league, it’s hard to back them even with Skenes on the hill. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan has been a wall at home, giving Minnesota the edge.

• Score Prediction: Twins 3 – Pirates 2
• Win Probability: Twins 57% | Pirates 43%

This has all the makings of a low-scoring thriller. Expect a lot of strikeouts, few base runners, and limited extra-base hits. Minnesota should just have enough firepower—especially if Buxton plays—to edge out a narrow win.

Current Betting Odds from Stake.com

According to Stake.com, the current winning odds for the two teams are as follows:

• Minnesota Twins: 1.73

• Pittsburgh Pirates: 2.16

Final Prediction: Who Will Win?

With two Cy Young-caliber pitchers on the mound, Friday’s clash between the Twins and Pirates should be a masterclass in run prevention. Pittsburgh’s anemic offense likely means another missed opportunity to capitalize on Paul Skenes’ brilliance, while the Twins will hope Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach can provide just enough offense.

Pick: Minnesota Twins to win, but the best value play is the under 6.5 runs.