Tour de France 2025: Stage 7 Preview, and Predictions

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11 Jul 2025 08:50 UTC
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Day 7 of the 2025 Tour de France continues its dramatic pace in the Breton region with a scenic hilly stage from Saint-Malo to Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan. On July 11th, the 197 km stage is more than a postcard ride down northwest France and it's a battleground turning point for puncheurs, climbers-turned-sprinters, and yellow jersey aspirants too. Having 2,450 meters of climbing and the mythical double climb of Mûr-de-Bretagne, Stage 7 will shake up the general classification.

Stage Recap: A Test of Power and Precision

Stage 7 is the first big litmus test for riders with an emphasis on stage wins and podium finishes. Rolling roads across the hilly heart of Brittany are some of the most tactically challenging stages of the early week. While it lacks the high-mountain ascents of the Alps or Pyrenees, repeated ascending and brief, merciless ramps are perfect for breakaway magicians and explosive climbers.

Apart from pure competition, the stage carries historic value. The Mûr-de-Bretagne Mountain has produced Tour moments of folklore in the past. It was won by Mathieu van der Poel in 2021, a victory he dedicated to his late grandfather Raymond Poulidor. That win solidified the climb's reputation and van der Poel returns in the stage, once more wearing yellow, hoping to repeat all that.

Stage Recap at a Glance

  • Date: Friday, 11th July 2025

  • Route: Saint-Malo → Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan

  • Distance: 197 km

  • Stage Type: Hilly

  • Elevation Gain: 2,450 meters

Key Climbs to Watch

There are three categorized climbs in this stage, with the final two both on the same legendary ramp—Mûr-de-Bretagne and first as an amuse-bouche and then as the denouement.

1. Côte du village de Mûr-de-Bretagne

  • Kilometer: 178.8

  • Elevation: 182 m

  • Climb: 1.7 km at 4.1%

  • Category: 4

  • A soft nudge before the fireworks really commences, this climb can see opportunists set the tempo before the fireworks truly begin.

2. Mûr-de-Bretagne (1st Passage)

  • Kilometer: 181.8

  • Elevation: 292 m

  • Climb: 2 km at 6.9%

  • Category: 3

  • The cyclists will have their first taste of this legendary climb with over 15 km to go and perfect for launching premature attacks or torched domestiques.

3. Mûr-de-Bretagne (Finish)

  • Kilometer: 197

  • Elevation: 292 m

  • Climb: 2 km at 6.9%

  • Category: 3

  • The stage is at its peak here. Expect an open battle on the hills as GC contenders and fearless climbers duke it out.

Points and Time Bonus

Stage 7 is points- and bonus-laden, with it being critical for Green Jersey contenders and GC hopefuls alike:

  • Intermediate Sprint: Positioned middle stage, this yields big points to sprinters gunning for the green jersey and can establish early breakaway teams.

  • Mountain Classification: Three climbs of categorization, namely consecutive ascents of Mûr-de-Bretagne, will witness KOM points hotly contested.

  • Time Bonuses: Awarded at the finish, these could well determine a GC battle in which seconds are between yellow and the rest.

Riders to Watch: Who Will Master the Mûr?

  1. Mathieu van der Poel: Having just taken back yellow in Stage 6, van der Poel already showed his explosiveness on this climb. With motivation and form on his side, he's a strong bet to claim victory.

  2. Tadej Pogačar: After his Stage 4 win and consistent presence at the front, the Slovenian looks knife sharp. An aggressive play by him on the final climb is anticipated.

  3. Remco Evenepoel: While better suited for longer time trials and mountain climbs, his present GC placement and power may require a threat of attack.

  4. Ben Healy: His aggressive lone escape on Stage 6 shows he won't shy away from going long. He's likely to be the breakaway man for the day.

  5. Breakaway Specialists: With rolling terrain in the first part of the stage, a strong team can get away. Riders like Quinn Simmons or Michael Storer can pilfer a stage win if the peloton makes a mistake.

Current Betting Odds for Stage 07 According to Stake.com

betting odds from stake.com for tour de france stage 7

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Weather Forecast: Tailwinds and Tension

  • Temperature: 26°C – Hot and dry, ideal racing conditions.

  • Wind: A northeasterly tailwind for the majority of the stage, turning crosswind towards the finish—this can divide the bunch and position is everything getting to the Mûr.

Form Guide: Stages 4–6 Highlights

  1. Stage 4 saw Pogačar take his first victory of this Tour, a record 100th career win, marking his form as the one to beat. He made his move on the final climb and held off van der Poel and Vingegaard in a nail-biting sprint.

  2. Stage 5, the time trial, flipped the GC once more. Remco Evenepoel's commanding win left him in second place overall and van der Poel slipped to 18th. Pogačar's good second-place left him steady in yellow, though the time gaps are knife-thin.

  3. At Stage 6, Irish cyclist Ben Healy was the star of the show with a daring solo attack 40 km from the finish. Behind him, van der Poel clawed back yellow by a narrow margin of one second from Pogačar, showing his determination and race sense.

All Eyes on the Mûr

Stage 7 is far from a transition stage—it's a physical and strategic minefield. The double climb of Mûr-de-Bretagne will not just set the race alight but effectively redesign the summit of the general classification. Puncheurs like van der Poel, all-rounders like Pogačar, and breakaway opportunists all get their say.

With extreme heat, beneficial winds, and rising pressure among GC favorites, look for fireworks in the last 20 kilometers. Whether a traditional solo attack, a strategic sprint along the Mûr, or a jersey reshuffling, Stage 7 is bound to deliver drama, emotion, and high-level cycling at its finest.

Mark your calendars—this might be one of the day's that shapes the 2025 Tour de France.

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