Introduction
The South American World Cup Qualifiers are reaching their climax, and all eyes will be on Buenos Aires, as current world champions Argentina welcome Venezuela to the iconic Estadio Monumental on Thursday, 4th September 2025, at 11:30pm (UTC).
Argentina has no pressure from this game, as they have already qualified for the 2026 World Cup, which will take place in North America. However, for Venezuela (La Vinotinto), this is a huge match. Venezuela occupies the seventh position in the standings, which is in the playoff zone, and Bolivia is only one point behind in eighth position. Venezuela has two matches left and must show plenty of grit to achieve their impossible World Cup dreams.
Argentina vs. Venezuela – Match Overview
- Fixture: Argentina vs. Venezuela—FIFA World Cup Qualifier 2025
- Date: Thursday, 4th September 2025
- Kick-Off: 23:30 (UTC)
- Venue: Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Argentina's Home Development Scoring Potential
Argentina has been truly dominant in the qualifiers:
28 goals in 16 matches (1.75 goals per match average)
At home, that average is 2.12 goals per match.
Against Venezuela, they have scored 44 goals in 12 home matches—an incredible average of 3.6 goals a match.
Historically, this is a matchup that has produced goals, with four of the last five head-to-heads in Buenos Aires going over 2.5 goals. Given Venezuela's poor away record and Argentina's attacking quality, we see another high-scoring game in the offing.
Betting Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals
A Continued Away Decline for Venezuela
Venezuela has developed in the past few years but remains at the bottom of the FIFA World Ranking, with a truly horrid away record:
0 away victories in this qualifying campaign
6 consecutive away defeats in all competitions
Conceded 14 goals in their last five away games
Argentina, in contrast, has:
16 wins in 21 matches against Venezuela
Unbeaten in the last 6 games (5W, 1D)
Kept 6 clean sheets in last 8 qualifiers
Betting Tip 2: Argentina
Key Attacking Threat—Julian Alvarez
Although Lionel Messi will grab the headlines, there is the potential for Julian Alvarez to be the real x-factor:
3 goals in his last 5 appearances for Argentina
2 goals in his last 3 qualifiers
Limited relative opportunities but has consistently produced when asked to start
If Scaloni decides to rotate just slightly, Alvarez could be the focal point in attack, alongside Lautaro Martinez.
Head-to-Head Record—Lopsided Rivalry
The Argentina vs. Venezuela rivalry has been lopsided historically:
Argentina wins - 24
Draws - 4
Venezuela wins – 1
Over the last four head-to-head meetings, Argentina has gone unbeaten (3W, 1D). The only victory for Venezuela took place in 2011, but since then, La Albiceleste has firmly established itself as the dominant team in any matchup.
Likely Lineups
Argentina Likely Lineup (4-3-3)
E. Martinez (GK); Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister, Almada; Messi, L. Martinez, Paz
Venezuela Likely Lineup (4-3-3)
Romo (GK); Aramburu, Navarro, Angel, Ferraresi; J. Martinez, Casseres, Bello; D. Martinez, Rondon, Soteldo
Team News & Absentees
Argentina:
OUT: Enzo Fernandez (suspension), Lisandro Martinez (knee), Facundo Medina (ankle)
They could also rotate and see youngsters Nico Paz & Franco Mastantuono get a start.
Venezuela:
OUT: David Martinez (shoulder), Jose Andres Martinez (hand), Yangel Herrera (injury)
Veteran forward Salomon Rondon will lead the lines.
Key Match Stats
Argentina has lost just 1 of their last 8 qualifiers at home (W6, D1).
Venezuela is currently on a 5-match losing streak away from home, conceding 14 goals in total.
Argentina has 10 clean sheets in their 11 respective qualifying wins.
Only 5 of Argentina’s last 16 competitive matches saw over 2.5 goals.
Tactical Analysis—How the Game Could Play Out
Argentina will almost certainly dominate the ball, controlling the tempo thanks to De Paul and Mac Allister in midfield. Full-backs Molina and Tagliafico will look to push up and have plenty of overlapping runs, stretching any potential Venezuelan defense, while Messi will be able to occupy central areas.
For Venezuela, the game plan will be to stay alive. The logical solution to Argentina's squad and home-field advantage is to sit deep and compact in a 4-3-3 formation and wait for counterattack opportunities through the speed of Soteldo and the strength of Rondon.
But given Venezuela's poor away record, sitting back and trying not to concede seems like an impossible mission in Buenos Aires against Argentina.
Argentina vs. Venezuela Betting Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Venezuela
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes
Lionel Messi to Score Anytime
Lautaro Martinez first goal scorer
Pre-Game Win Probability
Argentina Win: (81.8%)
Draw: (15.4%)
Venezuela Win: (8.3%)
Our Analysis: Argentina to Win, Venezuela to Lose
Argentina has qualified already, so they will want to keep rhythm as they head to the World Cup. Venezuela needs a desperate three and will probably push numbers forward in attack, but looking at their away record, this could happen for them again. We expect Argentina to win comfortably.
With Messi, Lautaro, and Alvarez getting on the scoresheet for the host, Venezuela may grab a goal as well, but the quality is just miles apart!
Final Score Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Venezuela
Conclusion
The game between Argentina and Venezuela at the Estadio Monumental is more than just a qualifier; it’s a champion versus an underdog showdown. While Argentina aims to impress their home fans again after already qualifying, Venezuela desperately tries to keep their dream alive.
With this possibly being Lionel Messi’s last ever World Cup qualifying game, this match is guaranteed to be a passionate and exciting end to the international break.
Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Venezuela
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Top Goal Scorer Pick: Julian Alvarez Anytime
