After three weeks of agony, 3,500+ kilometers, massive Alpine climbs, and non-stop drama, the 2025 Tour de France reaches its denouement. Stage 21, the deceptively short but tactically spicy route from Mantes-la-Ville to Paris. Typically, a sprinter's parade, this year's finish has a surprise: three laps of Montmartre prior to the peloton taking on the iconic Champs-Élysées.

With Tadej Pogačar set to claim his fourth Tour title, the focus shifts to stage honors and this year, it's anything but guaranteed.

Stage 21 is 132.3 km long and starts in the Yvelines department before finishing amidst the cobblestone chaos of downtown Paris. Unlike in years past, however, the peloton will not head straight to the Champs-Élysées. The riders will instead tackle three climbs of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre, the iconic ascent winding through the artist-filled Montmartre neighborhood.

• Côte de la Butte Montmartre: 1.1 km at 5.9%, with pitches over 10%

• Tight corners, cobblestones, and narrow passages make it a real test late in the race.

After the Montmartre loop, the race finally hits the traditional Champs-Élysées circuit, though with legs already softened, fireworks could erupt long before the finish.

• Stage Start: 1:30 PM UTC

• Estimated Finish: 4:45 PM UTC (Champs-Élysées)

Thanks to an imperious advantage of over four minutes, Pogačar's yellow jersey is as good as signed and sealed. UAE Team Emirates will likely protect him from taking unnecessary risks. The Slovenian can afford to ride carefully unless a symbolic show of strength is called for.

Fresh off a morale-boosting victory in Stage 20, Groves has found top form just in time. If he survives the Montmartre laps, his sprint makes him a serious contender on the Champs.

Milan has been the fastest pure sprinter on this Tour but could struggle on the climb repetitions. If he hangs on, his sprint remains unmatched.

Back from early illness, Van Aert has ridden himself into better shape. He’s one of the few riders who can attack Montmartre or win from a bunch sprint.

• Victor Campenaerts – Breakaway artist with engine and courage

• Jordi Meeus – Surprise Stage 21 winner in 2023, knows the Paris script

• Tobias Lund Andresen – Young, fearless, and fast — well-suited to punchy finales

Cycling fans looking to turn their stage insights into winning bets can find extensive Stage 21 markets on Stake.com. The odds as of July 26 are:

Odds may vary based on weather, team strategies, and start list confirmation.

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The current Paris forecast for July 27:

• Partly cloudy, chance of showers (20%)

• High of 24°C

• Light winds, but rain could complicate cobbled sections

The Montmartre loop becomes treacherous if wet, increasing crash risk and favoring skilled bike handlers like Van Aert or Campenaerts. Dry conditions, however, should preserve the script for a fast finish on the Champs-Élysées.

1. Top Safe Pick: Jonathan Milan

• If the race stays together and he crests Montmartre in the front group, Milan’s pure speed should secure victory.

2. Value Play: Victor Campenaerts (33/1)

• If sprinter teams miscalculate and let a late break go, Campenaerts could capitalize — he’s looked aggressive in the final week.

3. Sleeper Bet: Tobias Lund Andresen (22/1)

• The young Dane is fast, tenacious, and might thrive in this punchy finale.

Use small stake bets on 2–3 riders using bonus credits. Consider pairing a favorite like Milan with a long shot like Campenaerts.

The 2025 Tour de France will likely crown Tadej Pogačar as champion again. But the final stage is far from a ceremonial roll. With the Montmartre twist, Stage 21 introduces late-race complexity that could reward sprinters, attackers, or chaos-loving opportunists.

Whether you’re cheering, betting, or just watching the spectacle, this isn’t a stage to miss.