The New Year, Business as Usual for Bayern Munich
January football in Munich usually feels less like a fresh start and more like continuing where it left off before the holiday break. Now that the Bundesliga has returned after the winter break, Bayern Munich has plenty of momentum, self-assurance, and historical superiority going into this matchup with Wolfsburg at the Allianz Arena. With this current setup, Vincent Kompany's Bayern team is not simply at the top of the league but also playing at such a high level that the other teams in the Bundesliga feel suffocated by it. Meaning they have 41 points from 15 matches, with a crazy goal difference (the most for any Bundesliga team in history) of 44 goals, and have yet to lose in domestic competition (league cup/playoffs) in 2026. Bayern Munich is the favorite to win the Bundesliga this season. Wolfsburg will enter this match ranked 14th in the Bundesliga, struggling with injuries, consistency, and the psychological impact of facing a team they have not defeated in more than 20 years.
At first glance, this match-up seems to favor one side heavily. However, football has a way of defying predictions, especially when coming off a lengthy winter break.
Match Details
- Date: 11th January 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM (UTC)
- Location: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Winning Probability for Teams: Bayern Munich 87% | Draw 8% | Wolfsburg 5%
Bayern Munich's Performance this 2025 Bundesliga Season
In their final Bundesliga fixture of 2025, Bayern Munich sent a clear message to everyone with their 4–0 rout of Heidenheim in the City of Schwäbisch Hall. Under the guidance of their new coach, Vincent Kompany, the Bavarians have demonstrated impressive organization in their attacking play, aggressive ball pursuit, and exceptional efficiency when it comes to finishing goal-scoring opportunities. Josip Stanišić, Michael Olise, Luis Díaz, and Harry Kane all contributed to Bayern’s offensive display, highlighting the strength and the depth of the current squad for 2025. Bayern Munich's form overall statistically would be described as ridiculous, with only two draws and eight wins from 10 matches (8 wins, 2 draws). On average, Bayern scored 3.3 goals in a match, and they also conceded 0.8 goals in a match over that period. The number of possessions by Bayern Munich was usually above 68%, and they completed just under 800 passes per match, which shows their dominant growth in territorial control. Bayern Munich is at its most dominant position this season at their Allianz Arena stadium, having only lost points (2) at home in all competitions through 2025.
Still being the focal point, scoring 9 goals, Harry Kane’s movement and finishing have been key in the goalscoring abilities of the team. The Bayern attack is now fully functional. Luis Diaz and Michael Olise are fast and provide the team with unpredictability and creativity on the wings. Olise is quickly becoming one of the most important players on the field. He thrives in the intensity of Kompany’s system and is the leader in assists for the team.
Despite the continuing absence of players like Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich, and possibly Alphonso Davies, Bayern maintains its structure, while Leon Goretzka and Aleksandar Pavlovic continue to provide a strong presence in the midfield area and control the second phase of play. The experience of Manuel Neuer provides a solid base for a solid defense when they don’t frequently become anxious or flustered.
Wolfsburg: Talent without Stability
Flashes of promise and glimpses of talent have offered hope through a season filled with disruption and structural fragility. Their last match before the league break which is a wild and chaotic 4-3 loss at home to Freiburg and provides a perfect summary of their season; combined with Dženan Pejčinović's hat trick showing that there is a glimmer of what the team could be if they were to fix their many defensive problems and they gave their defense plenty of time to settle down in bad form in front of their home crowd—this just further emphasizes how much they continue to struggle with giving away too many goals. Wolfsburg sits on 15 points and is very close to the relegation playoff position. The team has struggled for consistency over their last ten league matches, achieving 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. Average possession is only 44.6%, while goals conceded per match exceed 2. These statistics generally do not bode well when playing against a team like Bayern Munich.
Following the winter break, the team enjoyed a training camp in Portugal and a 1–1 friendly vs. Estrela, giving them time to reset. However, they remain troubled by injuries and absentees from the previous match, including Mohamed Amoura (Africa Cup of Nations), Jonas Wind, and others, which means even more responsibility will fall on Pejčinović and Patrick WiWimmer. While the new head co coach, Aniel BaBauer, made it clear that he does not intend to "park the bus" in Munich, which is commendable in its philosophy, taking such an approach certainly will have its downsides against a Bayern team that excels when they have space and the ability to counterattack.
Head-to-Head: Wolfsburg's Nightmare History
Never Bundesliga matchup has ever shown as many disparities in history as Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg. Bayern won 9 of the last 10 clashes and tied the tenth match. Wolfsburg has lost to Bayern in all their last 22 matches and has never won at Allianz Arena. The previous season, Bayern Munich beat Wolfsburg by a score of 3 to 2 both away and at home, completing a league double against the Wolves. Similarly, even when the scores were closer together, Bayern has consistently held the upper hand in controlling the game, with Wolfsburg chasing them down and attempting to catch up with Bayern.
The psychological aspect of this matchup cannot be ignored. All players know the "narratives" that are built within a team. The players on Wolfsburg will not only have to figure out the tactical approach but also will have to figure out how to get their minds around believing in themselves based on what history has shown them about the two teams’ matchups.
Tactical Analysis: Control vs Courage
Bayern Munich will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which they are very familiar with, with Harry Kane as their attacking player and Olise, Lennart Karl, and Luis Díaz in the positions behind him. Bayern Munich’s full-backs will play high up the pitch, squeezing Wolfsburg back into their defensive half.
Wolfsburg will nearly mirror Bayern Munich with their own 4-2-3-1 formation, but they will interpret the setup differently than Bayern Munich will. Maximilian Arnold and Mattias Svanberg will do their best to shield their back four from the constant probing attacks that have plagued them in recent weeks. Christian Eriksen will serve as the architect for Wolfsburg, allowing them the chance to slow down the tempo and be able to pick out the right passes on occasion.
Nonetheless, Bayern has an unrelenting style of pressuring opponents. When Wolfsburg tries to play the ball from their defensive thirds, they will be forced into turnovers in dangerous areas.
Who to Watch the Best?
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich):
Kane is still the most dangerous scoring threat in the league for all clubs. Even when he is not scoring, his ability to link up with teammates and find the right position gives the opposition the challenge of having to prepare for a player who creates space. With a Wolfsburg defense that allows ample opportunities to score, Kane will have many opportunities to add to his goal total.
Michael Olise (Bayern Munich):
Olise's creativity, fearlessness, and technical proficiency make him a central figure for Bayern. In match two with Wolfsburg's full-backs, the winner of this match may be dictated by which team has the best rhythm between Olise and the Wolfsburg defenders.
Dženan Pejčinović (Wolfsburg):
Pejčinović, coming off a hat trick, is the main player for Wolfsburg. If Wolfsburg can score, it will be through Pejčinović's movement and finishing in the counterattacking violation.
Flow of the Game (Discipline/Goals)
Referee Tobias Reichel has an average of 4.5 yellow cards a match. Therefore, discipline could become an interesting subplot for the match. If Wolfsburg is constantly forced into a defensive position, they may have to commit many fouls. Bayern's strong pressing game forces many offenses to foul their opponents, which leads to many cards for the defense players. Goals have always seemed inevitable for Bayern. Indeed, during their last 23 Bundesliga matches, they scored at least two goals in every single match, including every match that has been contested in the Allianz Arena up to this point. Whenever they do manage to pull out victories on the road, we can anticipate the team will be able to return home to play again with the same success as before.
Prediction: Routine but Without Recklessness
Historically, Bayern comes on strong after the winter break. They have won eight of their last ten Bundesliga matches following the winter break. Given Bayern's near-perfect form at home, combined with Wolfsburg's inability to defend, we expect a routine victory for Bayern.
However, Wolfsburg has demonstrated that they could score goals even when they do struggle to score. Bayern has a great deal of talent, depth, and momentum, so they should not be at significant risk this week.
- Predicted Score: Bayern Munich 4, Wolfsburg 1
The Allianz Arena will host yet another match of great significance, reaffirming Bayern's dominance in the Bundesliga title race and reminding Wolfsburg how far they must go in the year 2026 to compete at that level.
